BF-BNYSE·Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Brown-Forman Corporation BF-B

Market cap $12.2BP/E 17.1× trailingGross margin 60.7%

$26.29

−0.27 (−1.02%)Wed close 16:00 ET

52-wk $22.61 – $31.92

Watch

Orin's take

0.58conviction · moderate

Refreshed 2 Sep · take v9. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Get emailed if this changes

Brown-Forman remains a hold as FY2026 results (fiscal year ended 2026-04-30) present a genuinely conflicted picture: free cash flow surged to $893M with a 22.73% FCF margin and total debt was cut from $2.733B to $2.151B, yet diluted EPS fell to $1.53 — down 16.85% YoY and well below FY2024's $2.15 — capped by a Q4 EPS of $0.12 that missed estimates by 61%. The rejected $15B Sazerac proposal and the Brown family's majority control of Class A shares establish a strategic floor but also remove near-term M&A optionality, while the stock at $26.36 trades below both its 50-day ($27.25) and 200-day ($27.26) moving averages with RSI at 38.69, signaling persistent bearish momentum.

At 17.34x trailing earnings — 12% below the peer median of 19.70x — valuation offers some cushion, but revenue has declined for three straight years and Q1 FY2027 previews signal continued muted demand.

What could go wrong

Persistent earnings erosion. Diluted EPS has declined for two consecutive fiscal years, from $2.15 in FY2024 to $1.53 in FY2026, with the most recent Q4 EPS of $0.12 representing a 61% miss versus estimates.
Family control blocking value realization. The Brown family's firm rejection of Sazerac's $15B proposal as 'not actionable' removes the most obvious near-term catalyst and leaves minority shareholders dependent on organic recovery.
Technical deterioration. The stock at $26.36 trades below both its 50-day ($27.25) and 200-day ($27.26) moving averages with a bearish MACD histogram of -0.261 and RSI at 38.69, suggesting limited near-term upside momentum.
Demand softness continuing. Zacks previews for Q1 FY2027 reference muted demand and portfolio headwinds, and revenue has declined for three consecutive fiscal years per derived_metrics.

What would change my mind

Q1 FY2027 earnings. Revenue returns to positive YoY growth and EPS beats consensus, reversing the recent miss trendbullish

Renewed Sazerac bid. Sazerac returns with a raised offer above $15B or a competing bidder emergesbullish

Sustained EPS decline. Q1 FY2027 EPS falls below the prior-year comparable and revenue declines accelerate beyond the -1.18% FY2026 pacebearish

FCF/deleveraging reversal. Free cash flow contracts from the $893M FY2026 level or total debt begins to re-leverage from $2.151Bbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals and derived_metrics, FY2026 (ended 2026-04-30) · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 and FY2026 · FMP annual fundamentals and derived_metrics, FY2024–FY2026 · FMP earnings_surprises, period_end 2026-06-04. Orin's read on BF-B; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All BF-B filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
8-K	21 Sep	—	on file
10-Q	2 Sep	Brown-Forman Corporation reported net sales of $911 million for the three months ended July 31, 2026, a 1.4% decrease compared to $924 million in the prior year period.	read
8-K	2 Sep	Brown-Forman Corporation reported first quarter fiscal 2027 results with net sales of $911 million, a 1% decrease year-over-year on a reported and organic basis.	read
8-K	23 Jul	Brown-Forman Corporation held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders on July 23, 2026.	read
8-K	13 Jul	Lawson Whiting announced his retirement as President and Chief Executive Officer of Brown-Forman Corporation, effective upon the appointment of his successor.	read
DEF 14A	18 Jun	Lawson E. Whiting, President and Chief Executive Officer, received total compensation of $25,304,882 for fiscal year 2026. This included a base salary of $1,314,365, a bonus of…	read
10-K	12 Jun	Brown-Forman Corporation manufactures, distills, bottles, imports, exports, markets, and sells a variety of beverage alcohol products under brands including Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey.	read
8-K	4 Jun	Brown-Forman Corporation reported its fiscal fourth quarter and twelve-month period results ended April 30, 2026, via press release on June 4, 2026.	read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$389.0M	0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$357.0M	0.0% of fund
Fmr	$335.2M	0.0% of fund
State Street	$262.1M	0.0% of fund
Invesco	$228.1M	0.0% of fund
Goldman Sachs Group	$197.1M	0.0% of fund

69 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 53 Form 4 filings, net $17.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about BF-B

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about BF-B from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Consumer Defensive

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	17.1×	38.5×	38.3×
EV/EBITDA	13.5×	26.4×	—
P/S	3.13×	7.40×	—
P/B	3.0×	9.6×	—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.59σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

2.6%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 24.5× of 4 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
BF-BBrown-Forman Corporation	$12B	17.1×	13.5×	60.7%	18.4%	18%
CLXThe Clorox Company	$10B	17.4×	16.9×	42.3%	8.7%	-1894%
CPBCampbell Soup Company	$6B	15.2×	10.1×	28.1%	4.1%	10%
HRLHormel Foods Corporation	$11B	31.6×	14.9×	15.7%	2.8%	4%
SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company	$13B	56.9×	14.9×	38.7%	2.5%	4%
TAPMolson Coors Beverage Company	$7B	—	—	36.2%	-20.8%	-23%

The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 30.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY15 28.0×FY26 16.8×

What its sector has traded at

Consumer Defensive

FY14 22.9×FY26 39.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$41	$26.56 · +55%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$46	$26.56 · +72%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $26.29

52-week range$23 – $32

Standard DCF$41 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $26.56

Levered DCF$46 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $26.56

At own 5y-median P/E (39×)$59

At 5y P/E range (19–40×)$29 – $62

At sector P/E (38×)$59

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.