Orin
BHENYSE·Hardware, Equipment & Parts

Benchmark Electronics, Inc.

Market cap $2.5BP/E 47.8× trailingGross margin 10.2%
$70.70
+3.75 (+5.60%)Tue 27 Oct close 16:00 ET
52-wk $41.69 – $100.41
Orin's take
6out of 10 — how sure Orin is of this read

Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.

Refreshed 12 Oct, the 5th take on BHE. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Benchmark Electronics' revenue acceleration is real — Q2 2026 revenue of $756M grew 17.7% YoY with EPS of $0.55, and management is citing private-AI infrastructure and semiconductor capital equipment demand for a record 2026 outlook.

However, the stock trades at 55.0x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 24.5x, a 125% premium that already discounts much of the recovery, while FY2025 net margin collapsed to 0.93% and insiders have been consistent net sellers ($15.4M disposed over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions). The P/S of 1.04x — 67% below the peer median of 3.18x — offers a margin-safety argument, but until multiple quarters of margin expansion confirm that revenue growth is flowing through to earnings, the risk/reward near $79 is balanced rather than compelling.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression persists. FY2025 net margin was just 0.93% with EPS of $0.68, down 60.5% YoY from $1.72. If the AI-driven revenue mix fails to lift operating margins above the 4.0% FY2025 level, the premium P/E of 55x becomes unsustainable.
  • Insider selling accelerates. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders disposed a net 248,323 shares worth $15.4M with zero open-market purchases. The CEO and COO both sold in August 2026 at $84.17, near recent highs.
  • Valuation re-rating reverses. At 55.0x trailing P/E and 19.9x EV/EBITDA — 125% and 26% above peer medians respectively — any disappointment in growth or margins could trigger a sharp de-rating toward the peer median multiples.
  • End-market demand softens. The bullish case rests on private-AI and semiconductor cap-equipment demand; if these cycles slow before new programs reach profitable scale, the revenue acceleration seen in Q2 2026 (+17.7% YoY) could stall.

What would change my mind

Sustained margin expansion. Two consecutive quarters with operating margin above 5% and net margin above 2.5%, confirming that revenue growth is translating to earnings leveragebullish
Q3 2026 revenue and EPS beat. Q3 2026 revenue exceeds $760M with EPS above $0.60, extending the YoY growth trajectory and narrowing the valuation gap on a forward basisbullish
Insider buying emerges. Any open-market insider acquisition after 24 months of net selling, which would signal management confidence in the turnaroundbullish
Margin guidance cut or revenue deceleration. Management lowers 2026 revenue outlook or guides to flat-to-declining margins, indicating the AI demand thesis is not converting to profitabilitybearish

Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison, 12 Oct · insider trades, 24 months to 17 Aug. Orin's read on BHE; not advice.

How has the share price moved?

27 Oct 2025 – 27 Oct 2026

Up 67.2% over twelve months, from $42.29 on 27 Oct 2025 to $70.70 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $98.67 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 28.3% below it.

Jan 2026AprJulOct
    • Green line: the closing price each trading day.
    • Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
    • Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
    • Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.8M, on 26 Jun 2026).
    • Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).

    Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

    Money flow
    FilerPositionOf fund
    BlackRock$579.8M0.0%
    Vanguard Portfolio Management$319.4M0.0%
    Earnest Partners$161.9M0.6%
    Vanguard Capital Management$153.4M0.0%
    State Street$141.6M0.0%
    Geode Capital Management$104.6M0.0%
    Franklin Resources$103.9M0.0%
    Invesco$100.0M0.0%
    Goldman Sachs Group$92.9M0.0%
    Charles Schwab Investment Management$58.4M0.0%

    58 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

    Insiders, last 24 months: 127 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$14.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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    How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?

    Tue 27 Oct close

    Priced at 47.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 25.8×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.

    MeasureNowIts usualSector
    P/E47.8×above usual25.8×39.5×
    P/S0.90×above usual0.43×—
    EV/EBITDA17.3×above usual9.3×—
    P/B2.3×above usual1.0×—
    • "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.

    P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.

    P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.

    EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.

    P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.

    What do the analysts who cover it publish?

    2 firms rated it in the last 18 months · 27 Oct

    Few analysts publish on it: 2 firms rated it in the last 18 months. The 12-month price targets on file average $91 (from $90 to $92) — 29% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.

    Price target on file

    $91

    $90 – $92 · +29% against the last close

    Their ratings
    • 2 buy or overweight
    • 0 hold
    • 0 underweight or sell

    Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.

    Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.

    How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?

    middle P/E 23.2× · 4 of 5 with a profit

    Priced at 47.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.2×.

    CompanyMarket valueP/EEV/EBITDAGross marginNet marginROE
    BHEBenchmark Electronics, Inc.$3B47.8×17.3×10.2%1.9%5%
    BELFBBel Fuse Inc.$3B55.9×19.1×39.5%8.1%11%
    CNXNPC Connection, Inc.$2B23.4×15.1×18.9%3.2%10%
    CTSCTS Corporation$2B23.0×11.6×40.3%12.9%13%
    OUSTOuster, Inc.$2Blost moneyn/m49.6%−26.0%−18%
    ROGRogers Corporation$2B7.0×19.3×32.7%5.3%4%
    • OUST: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
    • OUST: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
    • The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.

    Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.

    P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.

    EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.

    Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.

    Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.

    ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).

    Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?

    Tue 27 Oct

    Priced at 47.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.

    • Now47.8×

    P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.

    Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.

    How has its sector been priced?

    Now–Now · Tue 27 Oct

    Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).

    • Now39.5×
    • Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.

    Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.

    What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?

    computed 27 Oct at $70.32

    A standard cash-flow model puts it at $25 a share — 65% below the $70.32 price it was computed against (27 Oct).

    ModelValue a shareAgainst the price then
    Standard$2565% below $70.32
    Levered$11969% above $70.32

    Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.

    Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.