Biogen Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Biogen's revenue trajectory is recovering — Q2 2026 revenue grew 3.4% YoY to $2.74B and the company has delivered five consecutive earnings beats (most recently $3.60 actual vs $2.94 estimated) — while the litifilimab Phase 2 data in cutaneous lupus reported on October 2, 2026 adds optionality to the pipeline.
However, the stock trades at 39.1x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 25.6x (53% premium) and 23.9x EV/EBITDA versus 15.3x peer median (56% premium), which already discounts much of the improvement. With FY2025 operating margin compressed to 19.1% from 25.7% in FY2024 and the MACD histogram negative at -0.87 despite the stock sitting above its 50-day ($216.69) and 200-day ($196.19) moving averages, the risk/reward is balanced rather than compelling at $218.43.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. PE of 39.1x is 53% above the peer median of 25.6x and EV/EBITDA of 23.9x is 56% above the peer median of 15.3x, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Margin compression. FY2025 operating margin fell to 19.1% from 25.7% in FY2024, and Q4 2025 posted a negative operating income of -$57M, signaling cost or mix pressures.
- Quarterly EPS volatility. Q2 2026 EPS of $0.66 dropped sharply from Q1 2026's $2.15, suggesting lumpiness that could disappoint in upcoming Q3 2026 results.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 9,902 shares across 148 transactions with only 2 acquisitions, offering no bullish insider signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · earnings vs estimates, 29 Jul · peer comparison, 8 Oct · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on BIIB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 68.0% over twelve months, from $150.43 on 27 Oct 2025 to $252.73 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $253.84 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 0.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 15.0M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All BIIB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $3.9B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $957.9M | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $673.6M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $557.4M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $521.0M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $416.9M | 0.1% |
91 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 148 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BIIB
Orin answers questions about BIIB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 1.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.9×); the typical Healthcare company on the NASDAQ is at 20.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 1.7×below usual | 19.9× | 20.8× |
| P/S | 3.63×above usual | 3.26× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.7×above usual | 10.5× | — |
| P/B | 2.0×below usual | 2.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $246 (from $175 to $300) — 3% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$246
$175 – $300 · −3% against the last close
- 15 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 1.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 30.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIIBBiogen Inc. | $37B | 1.7× | 22.7× | 50.1% | 3.4% | 5% |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $242B | 27.6× | 16.2× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.21T | 42.9× | 28.9× | 83.4% | 33.5% | 93% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $170B | 39.4× | 17.2× | 73.2% | 6.8% | 5% |
| REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $84B | 19.5× | 14.5× | 84.9% | 27.9% | 14% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $132B | 30.1× | 23.2× | 86.0% | 34.9% | 23% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 1.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now1.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $487 a share — 93% above the $251.71 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $487 | 93% above $251.71 |
| Levered | $336 | 33% above $251.71 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.