Booking Holdings Inc. BKNG
Booking Holdings is a hold at $213 (as of 2026-08-19), as the stock's 14% premium to the peer median PE of 20.6x leaves little room for error while FY2025 net income declined 8.1% to $5.4B despite 13.4% revenue growth to $26.9B. The operating story remains compelling with margin expansion to 34.5% and $9.1B in free cash flow, but persistent insider net selling of $154.6M over 24 months and negative stockholders' equity of -$5.6B argue for patience rather than new capital at these levels.
Smart money positioning improved to a score of 0.1275 as of Q2 2026 with BlackRock establishing a new $11.65B stake, but with RSI at 65.2 and the MACD histogram turning slightly negative, the near-term risk-reward appears balanced rather than asymmetric.
What could go wrong
- Bottom-line deterioration. FY2025 net income fell 8.1% to $5.4B and EPS declined 4.2% to $6.62 despite revenue growth of 13.4%, suggesting rising costs below the operating line — likely interest expense on $19.3B total debt — are eroding shareholder returns.
- Negative equity and leverage. Total stockholders' equity stands at -$5.6B as of FY2025, worsening from -$4.0B in FY2024, with total debt rising to $19.3B, raising balance-sheet fragility concerns if travel demand softens.
- Valuation premium. At 23.5x PE, BKNG trades 14% above the peer median of 20.6x and at 5.84x PS versus 3.44x peer median (70% premium), limiting upside if growth decelerates from the 13.4% FY2025 pace.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the past 24 months, insiders executed 506 dispositions versus 30 acquisitions for net selling of $154.6M, with all visible August 2026 transactions being sales by the EVP/General Counsel and another officer.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025; FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative composite · insider summary 24-month window. Orin's read on BKNG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BKNG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Alliancebernstein L.P | $7.8B | 2.6% of fund |
| State Street | $6.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $4.7B | 0.5% of fund |
| Invesco | $4.6B | 0.4% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.2% of fund |
127 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 539 Form 4 filings, net −$155.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 35 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BKNG
Orin answers questions about BKNG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.2× | 29.9× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.5× | 18.6× | — |
| P/S | 4.28× | 6.46× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.04σ from its own mean).
2.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $9.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$233
$188 – $270 · +48% against today's price
- 46 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | $121B | 17.2× | 11.5× | 100.0% | 25.5% | -97% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $89B | 33.8× | 28.0× | 78.0% | 20.4% | 33% |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | $30B | 15.5× | 7.3× | 90.4% | 13.0% | 185% |
| LOWLowe's Companies, Inc. | $107B | 16.2× | 12.0× | 33.1% | 7.3% | -72% |
| MCDMcDonald's Corporation | $169B | 19.3× | 14.8× | 57.4% | 31.7% | -561% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $62B | 14.2× | 11.7× | 46.6% | 23.6% | 44% |
| TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc. | $145B | 24.3× | 16.9× | 32.1% | 9.7% | 60% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $262 | $159.77 · +64% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $261 | $159.77 · +64% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.