Booking Holdings Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Booking Holdings is a hold at $163.45 (as of 16 Oct) as the investment case is genuinely mixed: the franchise generates exceptional free cash flow of $9.1B on FY2025 revenue of $26.9B with a 33.8% FCF margin and 34.5% operating margin, yet Q2 2026 revenue growth decelerated to 8.1% YoY (down from 16.0% in Q1 2026 and 13.4% for full-year 2025), FY2025 net income declined 8.1%, and the balance sheet carries $19.3B in debt against negative stockholders' equity of -$5.6B.
The PE of 18.0x is only a 5.7% premium to the peer median of 17.1x, but the PS of 4.35x and EV/EBITDA of 11.7x trade at substantial premiums (106% and 43% respectively), limiting upside without reacceleration. Persistent insider selling — 493 dispositions and zero acquisitions over 24 months netting -176,562 shares — and the stock trading below both its 50-day ($182.5) and 200-day ($179.8) moving averages reinforce caution.
What could go wrong
- Revenue growth deceleration. Q2 2026 revenue growth of 8.1% YoY is a sharp slowdown from 16.0% in Q1 2026 and 13.4% for FY2025, suggesting post-pandemic travel demand is normalizing and core growth may settle in the mid-single digits.
- Leveraged balance sheet. Total debt of $19.3B against negative stockholders' equity of -$5.6B as of FY2025 leaves limited financial flexibility and elevates risk if travel demand weakens or rates stay elevated.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 493 dispositions and zero acquisitions, netting -176,562 shares for -$91.1M in value, with sales continuing into October 2026 at $163.06.
- AI disruption to OTA model. The launch of Vayo with a planned $100M investment signals BKNG's own concern about AI agents disintermediating traditional online travel booking, but the outcome is uncertain and could compress take rates.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on BKNG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 28.6% over twelve months, from $210.18 on 27 Oct 2025 to $150.14 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $219.68 on 9 Jan 2026; the last close is 31.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 23.0M, on 27 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All BKNG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $11.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $9.0B | 0.2% |
| AllianceBernstein | $7.8B | 2.6% |
| State Street | $6.2B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $4.7B | 0.5% |
| Invesco | $4.6B | 0.4% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.9B | 0.2% |
| Capital World Investors | $3.7B | 0.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $3.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
130 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 540 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$91.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 35 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BKNG
Orin answers questions about BKNG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 29.9×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NASDAQ is at 82.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.6×below usual | 29.9× | 82.5× |
| P/S | 3.99×below usual | 6.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8×below usual | 18.6× | — |
| P/B | below zero | 22.4× | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $230 (from $188 to $270) — 53% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$230
$188 – $270 · +53% against the last close
- 23 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 15.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. | $113B | 16.6× | 10.8× | 100.0% | 25.5% | n/m |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $102B | 31.4× | 29.4× | 78.5% | 23.0% | 39% |
| CCLCarnival Corporation & plc | $37B | 12.0× | 8.4× | 34.2% | 11.4% | 24% |
| EXPEExpedia Group, Inc. | $31B | 15.6× | 7.8× | 90.5% | 13.0% | 179% |
| NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $7B | 9.4× | 8.0× | 42.5% | 7.5% | 32% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $79B | 17.5× | 13.3× | 46.7% | 23.8% | 44% |
- BKNG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 82.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now82.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $232 a share — 54% above the $150.86 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $232 | 54% above $150.86 |
| Levered | $231 | 53% above $150.86 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.