BlackRock, Inc. BLK
Hold BLK. Revenue grew 18.7% to $24.2B in FY2025 and the stock has broken above both its 50-day ($1,041) and 200-day ($1,053) moving averages to $1,131 with a positive MACD histogram of +5.1, reflecting strong momentum.
However, diluted EPS fell 15.7% to $35.42 despite the revenue surge, net income declined from $6.37B to $5.55B, total debt rose to $15.0B from $9.7B two years ago, and the 6.4x price-to-sales ratio sits 135% above the peer median — a premium that demands margin recovery the annual results do not yet confirm. With $362M of net insider selling over 24 months and a slightly negative smart money score of -0.01, the risk/reward at these levels is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 operating income rose to $7.9B but net income fell to $5.55B from $6.37B, suggesting rising interest costs from $15.0B total debt are eroding bottom-line profitability even as revenue accelerates.
- Valuation premium on declining earnings. At 26.7x PE and 6.4x PS — 135% above peer median PS — the market prices in margin expansion that has not materialized; any further EPS disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 270,845 shares worth $362M over 24 months, including CEO Fink's recent sales at ~$1,081, signal limited insider conviction at current prices.
- Crypto ETF execution risk. IBIT and ETHA face volatility; ETHA requires a 1-for-3 reverse split, and Bitcoin sell-off headlines could dampen the ETF-driven growth narrative.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals. Orin's read on BLK; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BLK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $6.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $4.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $4.3B | 0.7% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.3B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.5B | 0.2% of fund |
132 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 213 Form 4 filings, net −$362.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 20 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BLK
Orin answers questions about BLK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.0× | 23.6× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.8× | 18.0× | — |
| P/S | 6.02× | 6.86× | — |
| P/B | 2.9× | 3.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.30σ from its own mean).
19.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1338
$1200 – $1488 · +27% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $164B | 25.0× | 15.8× | 55.7% | 24.1% | 12% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $72B | 26.9× | 6.2× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $40B | 53.0× | 21.3× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| BENFranklin Resources, Inc. | $17B | 21.8× | 17.8× | 67.6% | 9.6% | 7% |
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $144B | 26.5× | 18.5× | 88.8% | 21.9% | 41% |
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $14B | — | 9.6× | 67.4% | -0.9% | -1% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $87B | 28.9× | 13.1× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
| NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation | $32B | 14.9× | — | 59.8% | 14.8% | 17% |
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.5× | 6.9× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $556 | $1011.23 · −45% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $435 | $1011.23 · −57% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.