BlackRock, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Buy BLK.
Q3 2026 results delivered record $205B in net inflows and 19.1% YoY revenue growth to $7.75B, with adjusted EPS of $15.93 beating estimates by 11.2% — the largest surprise in eight consecutive quarterly beats. The stock has reclaimed both its 50-day ($1,106) and 200-day ($1,061) moving averages with a bullish MACD histogram of +8.01, and smart money flows are improving (score 0.06 as of Q2 2026, up from 0.04 in Q1). While FY2025 operating margin compressed to 29.1% from 37.1% and the stock trades at a 117% premium to peer median on price-to-sales, the PE at 25.5x is only 7.4% above the peer median — a reasonable premium for the franchise given accelerating inflows, alternatives expansion with $139B in dry powder, and AI infrastructure financing as a new growth vector.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persistence. FY2025 operating margin fell to 29.1% from 37.1% in FY2024, and net income declined 12.8% YoY despite 18.7% revenue growth — if cost integration from acquisitions continues to weigh, EPS upside stalls.
- Valuation premium on revenue. Price-to-sales of 6.16x is 117% above the peer median of 2.84x, and EV/EBITDA of 15.98x is 32.5% above the peer median of 12.06x, leaving limited room for multiple compression if growth decelerates.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 282,195 shares worth $306.8M across 82 dispositions with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Rising rate environment. Hotter CPI data is pushing yields higher, which could pressure AUM valuations and slow fixed income inflows that have been a key growth driver.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · news, 15 Oct · earnings vs estimates, 14 Oct · earnings vs estimates. Orin's read on BLK; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 0.4% over twelve months, from $1,131.31 on 27 Oct 2025 to $1,136.05 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $1,182.84 on 13 Aug 2026; the last close is 4.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.9M, on 9 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All BLK filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $9.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.9B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $6.2B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $4.4B | 0.3% |
| Wellington Management Group | $4.3B | 0.7% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $4.3B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.5B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.4B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.1B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $2.7B | 0.3% |
135 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 225 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$306.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BLK
Orin answers questions about BLK from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.6×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.5×above usual | 23.6× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 6.16×below usual | 6.85× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0×below usual | 18.0× | — |
| P/B | 3.1×near usual | 3.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $1,342 (from $1,250 to $1,468) — 18% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$1,342
$1,250 – $1,468 · +18% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 25.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $176B | 25.5× | 16.0× | 65.0% | 24.2% | 12% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $67B | 24.7× | 5.8× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $40B | 53.4× | 21.4× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| BENFranklin Resources, Inc. | $16B | 20.8× | 16.5× | 67.6% | 9.6% | 7% |
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $134B | 25.8× | 16.9× | 89.7% | 21.8% | 41% |
| IVZInvesco Ltd. | $13B | lost money | n/m | 74.6% | −1.1% | −1% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $83B | 27.4× | 12.6× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.4× | 6.2× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
- IVZ: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- IVZ: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $533 a share — 53% below the $1,135.72 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $533 | 53% below $1,135.72 |
| Levered | $418 | 63% below $1,135.72 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.