Orin
BMINYSE·Industrial - Machinery

Badger Meter, Inc. BMI

Market cap $3.9BP/E 31.0× trailingGross margin 41.3%Reports Tue 20 Oct, before the open
$133.00
+0.74 (+0.56%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $112.09 – $204.00
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 17 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Badger Meter's fundamentals remain compelling — FY2025 revenue reached $916.7M with 10.9% YoY growth, a 20.01% operating margin, $169.7M free cash flow, and zero debt — but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend at $128.70, roughly 15% below its 200-day MA of $150.87, with negative MACD momentum and an active securities class action overhang. A cluster buy by five insiders in April 2026 (~$777K) and a follow-on July purchase by VP Callahan at $135.25 signal management confidence, and the just-announced 10% dividend increase to $1.76 annually marks 34 consecutive years of growth, but at 30.0x earnings versus a peer median of 25.4x the stock is not cheap enough to justify committing capital before the technical and legal picture clears.

The setup is improving but unconfirmed.

What could go wrong

  • Securities class action. Multiple law firms announced a securities class action with an August 3, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline, creating legal uncertainty and potential overhang on the stock.
  • Technical downtrend. Stock at $128.70 trades below both the 50-day MA ($137.06) and 200-day MA ($150.87) with negative MACD histogram of -0.74, indicating sustained bearish momentum.
  • Valuation premium. P/E of 30.0x sits 18% above the peer median of 25.4x, limiting upside if growth decelerates from the 10.9% FY2025 rate.
  • Smart money outflows. Fund count declined from 49 in Q1 2026 to 44 as of Q2 2026, with a near-zero SM score of 0.0037, suggesting institutional conviction is fading.

What would change my mind

Technical stabilization. Stock reclaiming and holding above the 50-day MA ($137) with positive MACD crossoverbullish
Class action resolution. Dismissal or settlement of the securities class action removing legal overhangbullish
Growth deceleration. Q3 2026 revenue growth falling below 5% YoY or operating margin compression below 18%bearish
Further insider selling. Net insider dispositions accelerating beyond the 24-month net value of -$5.19M already recordedbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · Technicals as of 2026-08-17 · Insider transaction data, window 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-23. Orin's read on BMI; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$371.7M0.0% of fund
State Street$245.0M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$195.5M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$149.6M0.0% of fund
Morgan Stanley$109.8M0.0% of fund
Invesco$75.0M0.0% of fund

64 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 156 Form 4 filings, net −$5.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 6 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E31.0×44.5×
EV/EBITDA19.0×
P/S4.38×
P/B5.7×
What the price assumes

9.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

18 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$152

$112$167 · +15% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 5 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 3 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 21.9× of 8 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
BMIBadger Meter, Inc.$4B31.0×19.0×41.3%14.3%18%
CAMTCamtek Ltd.$7B183.8×239.7×50.1%7.4%6%
ESEESCO Technologies Inc.$7B21.9×24.9×42.0%24.4%20%
INGMIngram Micro Holding Corporation$6B14.8×7.5×6.6%0.8%10%
ITRIItron, Inc.$4B15.0×8.5×39.9%11.9%17%
LFUSLittelfuse, Inc.$11B38.5×39.3%-0.3%-0%
NOVTNovanta Inc.$5B90.8×33.7×42.5%6.0%5%
OSISOSI Systems, Inc.$3B22.0×18.2×33.2%8.7%18%
VICRVicor Corporation$13B88.8×97.1×56.6%30.6%20%
VNTVontier Corporation$4B12.9×10.4×46.6%11.3%28%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 41.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 28.8×FY25 36.2×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $133.00
52-week range$112 – $204
Analyst targets$112 – $167
At sector P/E (45×)$191

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.