Badger Meter, Inc. BMI
Badger Meter's fundamentals remain compelling — FY2025 revenue reached $916.7M with 10.9% YoY growth, a 20.01% operating margin, $169.7M free cash flow, and zero debt — but the stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend at $128.70, roughly 15% below its 200-day MA of $150.87, with negative MACD momentum and an active securities class action overhang. A cluster buy by five insiders in April 2026 (~$777K) and a follow-on July purchase by VP Callahan at $135.25 signal management confidence, and the just-announced 10% dividend increase to $1.76 annually marks 34 consecutive years of growth, but at 30.0x earnings versus a peer median of 25.4x the stock is not cheap enough to justify committing capital before the technical and legal picture clears.
The setup is improving but unconfirmed.
What could go wrong
- Securities class action. Multiple law firms announced a securities class action with an August 3, 2026 lead plaintiff deadline, creating legal uncertainty and potential overhang on the stock.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $128.70 trades below both the 50-day MA ($137.06) and 200-day MA ($150.87) with negative MACD histogram of -0.74, indicating sustained bearish momentum.
- Valuation premium. P/E of 30.0x sits 18% above the peer median of 25.4x, limiting upside if growth decelerates from the 10.9% FY2025 rate.
- Smart money outflows. Fund count declined from 49 in Q1 2026 to 44 as of Q2 2026, with a near-zero SM score of 0.0037, suggesting institutional conviction is fading.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · Technicals as of 2026-08-17 · Insider transaction data, window 2026-04-21 to 2026-04-23. Orin's read on BMI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BMI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $371.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $245.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $195.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $149.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $109.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $75.0M | 0.0% of fund |
64 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 156 Form 4 filings, net −$5.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 6 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BMI
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.0× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.0× | — | — |
| P/S | 4.38× | — | — |
| P/B | 5.7× | — | — |
9.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$152
$112 – $167 · +15% against today's price
- 5 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMIBadger Meter, Inc. | $4B | 31.0× | 19.0× | 41.3% | 14.3% | 18% |
| CAMTCamtek Ltd. | $7B | 183.8× | 239.7× | 50.1% | 7.4% | 6% |
| ESEESCO Technologies Inc. | $7B | 21.9× | 24.9× | 42.0% | 24.4% | 20% |
| INGMIngram Micro Holding Corporation | $6B | 14.8× | 7.5× | 6.6% | 0.8% | 10% |
| ITRIItron, Inc. | $4B | 15.0× | 8.5× | 39.9% | 11.9% | 17% |
| LFUSLittelfuse, Inc. | $11B | — | 38.5× | 39.3% | -0.3% | -0% |
| NOVTNovanta Inc. | $5B | 90.8× | 33.7× | 42.5% | 6.0% | 5% |
| OSISOSI Systems, Inc. | $3B | 22.0× | 18.2× | 33.2% | 8.7% | 18% |
| VICRVicor Corporation | $13B | 88.8× | 97.1× | 56.6% | 30.6% | 20% |
| VNTVontier Corporation | $4B | 12.9× | 10.4× | 46.6% | 11.3% | 28% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 41.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.