Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb's FY2025 fundamentals show a credible earnings recovery — operating income rebounded 42% to $13.7B, gross margin expanded to 71.1% from 56.8%, and debt was reduced by $4.1B to $47.1B while FCF held at $12.8B. The FDA's accelerated approval of Zenbexus as BMY's first CELMoD therapy adds a near-term pipeline catalyst, and at 14.1x P/E and 9.9x EV/EBITDA — roughly 31% and 28% below peer medians — the valuation discount is now more compelling given the improved profitability.
Technicals have cooled from prior overbought levels (RSI 56.5, stock above but not stretched vs 50- and 200-day MAs), making the risk-reward more attractive than when the stock last screened as a hold.
What could go wrong
- Revenue stagnation. Revenue has been essentially flat for five years ($46.4B in 2021 vs $48.2B in 2025), and the Eliquis patent cliff looms with no clear top-line growth engine yet at scale.
- Celgene lawsuit revival. A federal appeals court revived a $6.7B lawsuit accusing BMY of delaying drug approvals to cheat former Celgene shareholders — material relative to $7.1B FY2025 net income.
- AZN merger uncertainty. Reported $400B AstraZeneca-BMY merger rumors drew negative investor reaction; a deal or its collapse could introduce significant binary volatility.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score declined from 0.099 (Sep 2025) to 0.042 (Jun 2026), and fund count dropped from 60 to 58, suggesting institutional positioning is fading.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Orin fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · Orin fundamentals: gross profit $34.3B / revenue $48.2B vs $27.4B / $48.3B · Orin fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on BMY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BMY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $5.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $3.9B | 0.5% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
134 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 276 Form 4 filings, net −$12.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BMY
Orin answers questions about BMY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.5× | — | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6× | 9.6× | — |
| P/S | 2.54× | 2.37× | — |
| P/B | 5.6× | 4.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.11σ from its own mean).
-2.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $12.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$69
$59 – $82 · +13% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 20 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $125B | 13.5× | 9.6× | 70.2% | 18.9% | 47% |
| CICigna Corporation | $71B | 11.1× | 8.2× | 11.7% | 2.3% | 15% |
| CVSCVS Health Corporation | $110B | 22.4× | 13.0× | 14.2% | 1.2% | 6% |
| ELVElevance Health Inc. | $86B | 17.7× | 13.4× | 39.0% | 2.5% | 11% |
| HCAHCA Healthcare, Inc. | $94B | 14.6× | 9.0× | 28.4% | 8.8% | -113% |
| MCKMcKesson Corporation | $103B | 23.5× | 15.3× | 3.6% | 1.1% | -194% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $161B | 37.2× | 17.6× | 71.3% | 6.8% | 5% |
| VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $131B | 29.8× | 23.3× | 86.0% | 34.9% | 23% |
| ZTSZoetis Inc. | $30B | 11.8× | 9.8× | 70.9% | 27.5% | 69% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 32.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $270 | $55.87 · +383% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $299 | $55.87 · +435% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.