Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Bristol-Myers Squibb's profitability turnaround is intact — FY2025 gross margin expanded to 71.1% from 56.8% and operating margin reached 28.5%, while Q2 2026 revenue grew 5.7% YoY to $12.97B with EPS beating estimates by 27.5% (actual $2.04 vs. $1.60 estimated).
At 13.1x P/E and 9.3x EV/EBITDA — roughly 36% and 28% below peer medians of 20.4x and 12.9x respectively — the valuation discount remains compelling, and with RSI at 35.1 the stock is oversold near its 200-day MA of $59.51 against a last close of $59.58. The 4.2% dividend yield is well covered by $12.85B in FY2025 free cash flow, and total debt was reduced to $47.1B from $51.2B, though the looming patent cliff and persistent insider selling over the trailing 24 months warrant monitoring.
What could go wrong
- Patent cliff acceleration. Loss of exclusivity on key franchises including Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo could pressure revenue and EPS post-2026, as noted in recent coverage.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insider transactions show net dispositions with negative net value of approximately $4.76M and only one acquisition, signaling limited insider conviction.
- Modest top-line growth. FY2025 revenue growth was essentially flat at -0.22% YoY, and even with Q2 2026's 5.7% rebound, sustained double-digit growth is unlikely given legacy drug declines.
- Technical breakdown below 200-day MA. The stock is trading at $59.58, just above its 200-day MA of $59.51 and well below its 50-day MA of $64.23; a decisive break below the 200-day could trigger further selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 30 Jul · peer comparison. Orin's read on BMY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 41.9% over twelve months, from $43.39 on 27 Oct 2025 to $61.55 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $68.09 on 3 Sep 2026; the last close is 9.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 65.8M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All BMY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $10.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.7B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $5.9B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.2B | 0.2% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $3.9B | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $2.1B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.8B | 0.2% |
137 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 284 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$4.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BMY
Orin answers questions about BMY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 17.7×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.6×below usual | 17.7× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 2.56×above usual | 2.37× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.5× | — | — |
| P/B | 5.6×above usual | 4.9× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 7.0× to 49.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $65.75 (from $41 to $78) — 7% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$65.75
$41 – $78 · +7% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 41.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMYBristol-Myers Squibb Company | $126B | 13.6× | 9.5× | 70.2% | 18.9% | 47% |
| ABBVAbbVie Inc. | $506B | 80.7× | 26.9× | 71.5% | 9.8% | n/m |
| AMGNAmgen Inc. | $242B | 27.6× | 16.2× | 72.7% | 22.9% | 89% |
| GILDGilead Sciences, Inc. | $197B | lost money | 165× | 79.6% | −10.6% | −16% |
| JNJJohnson & Johnson | $647B | 40.7× | 21.9× | 68.8% | 16.2% | 20% |
| LLYEli Lilly and Company | $1.21T | 42.9× | 28.9× | 83.4% | 33.5% | 93% |
| MRKMerck & Co., Inc. | $350B | 113× | 28.5× | 75.4% | 4.8% | 7% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $170B | 39.4× | 17.2× | 73.2% | 6.8% | 5% |
- GILD: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- ABBV: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now13.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $225 a share — 267% above the $61.35 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $225 | 267% above $61.35 |
| Levered | $247 | 303% above $61.35 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.