Orin
BRK-BNYSE·Insurance - Diversified

Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK-B

Market cap $1.10TP/E 12.8× trailingGross margin 23.5%Reports Sat 7 Nov, before the open
$507.17
+3.68 (+0.73%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $464.01 – $537.74
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 12 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Berkshire Hathaway remains a buy at $516.38, with the post-Buffett transition under Greg Abel proceeding smoothly — Q2 operating earnings exceeded expectations, insurance float reached a record $177.5B, and Abel ended a six-quarter buyback freeze while becoming a net buyer of equities for the first time in over three years. Operating income held near $58.9B in FY2025 with operating cash flow rebounding to $46.0B from $30.6B, and the stock trades at a 5.7% EV/EBITDA discount to the peer median of 20.9x while sitting above both its 50-day ($497) and 200-day ($491) moving averages with positive MACD momentum.

The $360B cash stockpile provides substantial optionality, though reported net income has declined for two consecutive years — from $96.2B in FY2023 to $67.0B in FY2025 — largely reflecting investment-portfolio mark-to-market volatility rather than operating deterioration.

What could go wrong

  • Succession execution risk. Greg Abel is making major portfolio changes including three new positions and $23.5B in stock purchases; any misstep in capital allocation without Buffett's oversight could erode the premium historically accorded to Berkshire.
  • Smart money outflows. Smart money score has deteriorated from +0.99 in Q1 2025 to -0.37 in Q1 2026, with fund count rising from 44 to 67, suggesting institutional redistribution away from BRK.
  • Reported earnings volatility. Net income fell from $96.2B (FY2023) to $67.0B (FY2025) and EPS from $44.27 to $31.04; while driven by investment marks, headline EPS weakness could pressure sentiment.
  • High-profile bearish signal. Michael Burry publicly stated he no longer views Berkshire as an attractive investment, which may influence retail and momentum-driven flows.

What would change my mind

Accelerated capital deployment. Abel announces a large acquisition or significant equity position exceeding $50B, demonstrating confident post-Buffett capital allocationbullish
Smart money reversal. Smart money score turns positive (above 0) in the next 13F reporting period, reversing the downtrend from +0.99 to -0.37bullish
Operating income deterioration. Quarterly operating income falls below $14B (annualized ~$56B), breaking the stable $58-59B run-rate and signaling core business weaknessbearish
Cash deployment without returns. Cash pile declines below $300B without corresponding improvement in operating earnings or identifiable accretive acquisitionsbearish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2023 and FY2025 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-11. Orin's read on BRK-B; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$59.2B1.3% of fund
State Street$37.9B1.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$20.7B1.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley$13.3B0.7% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$12.2B0.5% of fund
Northern Trust$7.7B0.9% of fund

207 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 22 Form 4 filings, net $212.6M. Of the 22 on hand, 21 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Financial Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E12.8×21.6×
EV/EBITDA15.5×14.8×
P/S2.86×2.45×
P/B1.5×1.4×

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.62σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

18.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $25.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

10 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$604

$604$604 · +19% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 4 buy or overweight
  • 6 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 14.5× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc.$1.09T12.8×15.5×23.5%22.3%12%
AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.$40B13.7×6.3×38.1%11.1%7%
BACBank of America Corporation$397B12.7×24.1×59.3%17.2%11%
JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.$904B14.5×19.7×62.6%21.9%18%
PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc.$24B16.2×12.3×48.5%9.9%13%
VVisa Inc.$675B30.7×23.6×80.2%50.8%61%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 18.6×FY25 16.2×

What its sector has traded at

Financial Services
FY14 29.6×FY26 23.9×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$430$488.23 · −12%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$195$488.23 · −60%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $507.17
52-week range$464 – $538
Analyst targets$604 – $604
Standard DCF$430 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $488.23
Levered DCF$195 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $488.23
At own 5y-median P/E (8×)$319
At 5y P/E range (-30–16×)$-1183 – $640
At sector P/E (22×)$853

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.