Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Berkshire Hathaway is a hold at $506.25 as of the close on 7 Oct.
The post-Buffett handoff to Greg Abel is proceeding without operational disruption — Q2 2026 revenue accelerated 10.0% YoY to $101.8B and the latest EPS print of $6.02 beat consensus by 17.3% — while the stock trades at 12.7x P/E, a 10.2% discount to the peer median of 14.2x, and 15.4x EV/EBITDA, roughly 20.6% below peers. However, FY2025 net income fell 24.8% to $67.0B largely on investment mark-to-market volatility, Vice Chairman Ajit Jain sold 39,700 shares for ~$19.97M on 28 Sep, and the smart money score has been negative for four consecutive quarters at -0.23 as of Q2 2026, all of which temper conviction in a near-term re-rating absent a clearer capital-deployment catalyst.
What could go wrong
- Post-Buffett execution risk. Buffett retired Dec 31, 2025; Greg Abel is untested over a full cycle and has already committed capital to Lennar despite saying he doesn't envision a quick housing recovery.
- Insider selling signal. Vice Chairman Ajit Jain sold 39,700 shares at $503.09 on 28 Sep, reducing his holdings to 67,608 shares; 24-month net insider value is -$19.7M.
- Earnings volatility from investment portfolio. FY2025 net income declined 24.8% YoY to $67.0B and EPS fell to $31.04 from $41.27, driven by mark-to-market swings rather than core operating deterioration.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score has been negative for four straight 13F periods, sitting at -0.23 as of Q2 2026 versus +0.45 in Q2 2025.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · earnings vs estimates, 8 Aug · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on BRK-B; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 11.3% over twelve months, from $488.07 on 27 Oct 2025 to $542.99 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $548.56 on 26 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 14.7M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All BRK-B filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 11 Aug | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported second quarter 2026 net earnings attributable to shareholders of $25,667 million, an increase from $12,370 million in the second quarter of 2025. | read |
| 10-Q | 10 Aug | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reported net earnings attributable to shareholders of $25,667 million for the second quarter of 2026, a 106% increase year-over-year from $12,370 million… | read |
| 13D/A | 15 Jul | On July 14, 2026, Warren E. Buffett converted 8,000 shares of Berkshire Hathaway Class A Common Stock into 12,000,000 shares of Class B Common Stock. | read |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 15 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $60.6B | 0.9% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $59.2B | 1.3% |
| State Street | $37.9B | 1.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $20.7B | 1.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $13.3B | 0.7% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $12.2B | 0.5% |
| Northern Trust | $7.7B | 0.9% |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $7.4B | 21.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $6.4B | 0.4% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $5.8B | 0.8% |
210 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 8 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$19.7M. Of the 8 on hand, 5 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BRK-B
Orin answers questions about BRK-B from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 9.6×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.6×above usual | 9.6× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.01×above usual | 2.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3×above usual | 14.9× | — |
| P/B | 1.6×above usual | 1.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: one firm rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $628 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$628
$628 – $628 · +16% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc. | $1.16T | 13.6× | 16.3× | n/a | 22.3% | 12% |
| ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $34B | 8.1× | 8.2× | n/a | 23.2% | 18% |
| CSXCSX Corporation | $97B | 27.1× | 16.0× | 36.4% | 24.0% | 26% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36B | 8.0× | 11.4× | n/a | 15.9% | 24% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $75B | 20.9× | 14.0× | 56.7% | 19.6% | 11% |
| LLoews Corporation | $23B | 13.6× | 8.7× | n/a | 10.4% | 10% |
| NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation | $76B | 28.5× | 16.6× | 52.9% | 20.7% | 17% |
| UNPUnion Pacific Corporation | $178B | 23.3× | 15.1× | 44.0% | 28.9% | 38% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- BRK-B, ACGL, HIG, L: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 13.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now13.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.