Orin
BRONYSE·Insurance - Brokers

Brown & Brown, Inc. BRO

Market cap $20.6BP/E 16.7× trailingGross margin 59.0%Reports Mon 26 Oct, after the close
$61.42
+1.09 (+1.81%)live 11:30 ET
52-wk $53.81 – $96.55
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 31 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Brown & Brown's FY2025 results reveal acquisition-driven revenue growth of 26.6% to $5.96B masking a deteriorating earnings profile: diluted EPS fell 8.7% to $3.16 while total debt nearly doubled to $7.92B and net income grew only 6.1%. The stock trades at a 45% PE premium to the peer median of 14.0x and a 51% PS premium, yet its 13.0x EV/EBITDA sits 14% below the peer median — a valuation split that reflects market uncertainty about organic versus deal-driven growth.

With smart money slightly negative at -0.025 as of Q2 2026, insiders net-selling 215K shares over 24 months, and FCF margin holding at 23.2%, the risk-reward remains balanced but unattractive; hold until evidence of organic growth reacceleration or debt paydown emerges.

What could go wrong

  • Acquisition integration and dilution. Total debt nearly doubled to $7.92B and diluted EPS fell 8.7% to $3.16 in FY2025, suggesting the large acquisition may not be accretive and integration risk remains elevated.
  • Valuation premium vulnerability. PE of 20.25x sits 45% above the peer median of 14.0x and PS of 3.58x is 51% above the median of 2.37x, leaving the stock exposed to de-rating if growth disappoints.
  • Institutional sentiment softening. Smart money score is negative at -0.025 as of 2026-06-30, and Madison Mid Cap Fund listed BRO as a Q2 2026 bottom detractor, indicating some institutional fatigue.
  • Insider net selling. Over the past 24 months insiders net-sold 215,112 shares for -$5.8M, with 59 transactions including 14 dispositions versus 45 acquisitions — modest but directionally negative.

What would change my mind

Organic growth reacceleration. Q3 2026 commission and fee revenue growth excluding acquisitions exceeds high single digits, confirming underlying momentumbullish
Deleveraging commitment. Management announces or executes meaningful debt paydown from the $7.92B FY2025 level, reducing interest drag on EPSbullish
Continued EPS dilution. Q3 2026 diluted EPS declines further or operating margin compresses below the FY2025 level of 28.5%bearish
Valuation de-rating. Stock loses the 200-day MA support at approximately $69.65 on rising volume, indicating technical breakdownbearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 vs FY2024 fundamentals · FMP FY2025 vs FY2024, derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 balance sheet · derived_metrics FY2025. Orin's read on BRO; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.2B0.0% of fund
Fmr$1.2B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$938.6M0.0% of fund
State Street$931.1M0.0% of fund
Capital World Investors$928.0M0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$526.0M0.0% of fund

80 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 61 Form 4 filings, net −$5.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Financial Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E16.7×23.6×21.6×
EV/EBITDA11.2×16.0×—
P/S2.95×4.76×—
P/B1.6×3.6×—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.44σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

3.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

31 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$73

$55 – $90 · +18% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 10 buy or overweight
  • 20 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 13.8× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
BROBrown & Brown, Inc.$20B16.7×11.2×59.0%17.6%10%
CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.$28B20.8×13.3×52.3%26.7%26%
CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation$25B7.6×5.5×52.3%23.8%21%
FITBFifth Third Bancorp$47B17.4×18.6×68.5%15.8%8%
HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated$31B11.3×14.2×63.7%16.6%9%
TFCTruist Financial Corporation$59B10.7×17.0×64.0%19.1%9%
WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation$25B13.8×10.3×44.8%10.7%20%
WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company$27B18.0×12.2×53.8%15.5%20%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 21.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 22.8×FY25 23.4×

What its sector has traded at

Financial Services
FY14 29.6×FY26 23.8×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$159$60.94 · +161%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$204$60.94 · +235%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $61.42
52-week range$54 – $97
Analyst targets$55 – $90
Standard DCF$159 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $60.94
Levered DCF$204 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $60.94
At own 5y-median P/E (24×)$85
At 5y P/E range (23–33×)$83 – $120
At sector P/E (22×)$78

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.