Brown & Brown, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Brown & Brown remains a hold into the October 26 Q3 2026 earnings release, as the stock has rallied from prior oversold levels to $70.90 with an RSI of 69.6, leaving limited near-term upside before the catalyst.
Revenue growth of 34–37% YoY in H1 2026 is impressive but almost certainly acquisition-driven given total debt nearly doubled to $7.92B in FY2025 and FY2025 diluted EPS fell 8.7% to $3.16. At 19.6x trailing PE — a 7.5% discount to the peer median of 21.2x — and EV/EBITDA of 12.7x versus the peer median of 14.9x, valuation is not stretched, but the market needs proof that organic growth and margin trajectory justify the leverage taken on. The setup is binary around the Q3 print: a beat-and-raise with organic growth commentary could extend the rally; another soft organic result with rising integration costs would renew de-rating pressure.
What could go wrong
- Acquisition-driven growth masking organic weakness. FY2025 revenue grew 22.5% YoY while EPS declined 8.7%, and total debt nearly doubled from $4.06B to $7.92B, suggesting acquisitions are dilutive to earnings per share despite boosting top-line.
- Margin compression. Net margin compressed from 21.1% in FY2024 to 18.3% in FY2025 even as revenue surged, indicating integration costs and acquisition-related expenses are weighing on profitability.
- Overbought technicals into earnings. RSI of 69.6 as of 20 Oct with the stock at $70.90 above both the 50-day ($67.14) and 200-day ($67.01) moving averages leaves the stock vulnerable to a pullback on any earnings disappointment.
- Leverage and integration risk. Total debt of $7.92B against stockholders' equity of $12.55B as of FY2025 reflects significant leverage from acquisitions, and rising interest costs could further pressure EPS.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison, 20 Oct. Orin's read on BRO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 23.0% over twelve months, from $87.76 on 27 Oct 2025 to $67.55 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $87.76 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 23.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.4M, on 28 Oct 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All BRO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $938.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $931.1M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $928.0M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $526.0M | 0.0% |
| Select Equity Group | $313.9M | 1.6% |
| Norges Bank | $282.0M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $262.9M | 0.0% |
83 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 61 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $505K. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BRO
Orin answers questions about BRO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.9×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.5×below usual | 23.9× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.24×below usual | 4.76× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.6×below usual | 16.0× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×below usual | 3.6× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $72.67 (from $55 to $90) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$72.67
$55 – $90 · +8% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | $23B | 18.5× | 11.6× | 58.8% | 17.5% | 10% |
| AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $66B | 42.5× | 16.9× | 74.6% | 10.0% | 7% |
| AONAon plc | $64B | 16.5× | 14.0× | 83.1% | 22.2% | 40% |
| MRSHMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $91B | 22.7× | 18.5× | 42.8% | 14.2% | 27% |
| WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $30B | 19.6× | 12.9× | 53.8% | 15.5% | 20% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.