BWX Technologies, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
BWXT remains a hold as the nuclear growth narrative is genuine but margin and leverage trends have not yet inflected.
FY2025 revenue grew 18.3% to $3.2B and the company has beaten EPS estimates for eight consecutive quarters — most recently by 21.7% in Q1 2026 — yet operating margin compressed for a fourth straight year to 10.1% (from 14.1% in FY2024), with operating income falling to $323M from $381M despite the revenue surge, while total debt nearly doubled to $2.0B. The stock has bounced from its October 5 low near $132 to $143.83 as of 9 Oct with RSI recovering to 47.7 and MACD histogram turning positive, but it still trades below both the 50-day ($153.80) and 200-day ($188.92) moving averages and at 37.1x earnings carries a premium to traditional defense peers like GD (19.9x) and HII (15.8x). The BANR microreactor selection for a Canadian transportable nuclear project and a reported $8.4B backlog support the long-term thesis, but until operating leverage reasserts itself, the risk/reward is balanced.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin has declined for four consecutive years from 16.3% (FY2021) to 10.1% (FY2025); if the mix shift toward lower-margin commercial work continues, earnings quality deteriorates even as revenue grows.
- Leverage escalation. Total debt nearly doubled from $1.06B in FY2024 to $2.02B in FY2025, increasing interest burden and reducing financial flexibility if commercial nuclear build-out timelines slip.
- Execution risk on new contracts. The $8.4B backlog (per Seeking Alpha) depends on timely delivery of new commercial nuclear plants and microreactor projects; delays could defer the expected EBITDA growth above 20% through 2030.
- Valuation compression. At 37.1x earnings the stock trades at roughly double the GD multiple of 19.9x; if growth disappoints or rates rise, the multiple could contract further toward defense-peer levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on BWXT; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 34.3% over twelve months, from $204.03 on 27 Oct 2025 to $134.07 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $238.42 on 15 Apr 2026; the last close is 43.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.1M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All BWXT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $925.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $805.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $739.5M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $503.1M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $375.7M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $362.3M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $357.2M | 0.0% |
| Select Equity Group | $331.7M | 1.6% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $248.3M | 0.1% |
93 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 308 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$20.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BWXT
Orin answers questions about BWXT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 34.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 28.6×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.6×above usual | 28.6× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 3.49×above usual | 2.82× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.8×above usual | 18.3× | — |
| P/B | 9.2×above usual | 7.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $207 (from $170 to $255) — 54% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$207
$170 – $255 · +54% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 34.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc. | $12B | 34.6× | 24.8× | 22.1% | 10.1% | 28% |
| FISNDeep Fission, Inc. | $88M | lost money | n/m | 0.0% | 0.0% | −118% |
| GDGeneral Dynamics Corporation | $96B | 21.3× | 15.1× | 15.4% | 8.2% | 17% |
| HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11B | 16.7× | 11.7× | 12.6% | 5.0% | 13% |
| LEUCentrus Energy Corp. | $2B | 23.2× | 6.4× | 22.9% | 16.8% | 9% |
| OKLOOklo Inc. | $5B | lost money | n/m | 26.9% | below −1,000% | −7% |
| PESIPerma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. | $272M | lost money | n/m | −6.3% | −39.5% | −44% |
- FISN, OKLO, PESI: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- FISN, OKLO, PESI: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- OKLO: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $126 for each $1 of sales.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 34.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now34.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $45 a share — 67% below the $133.47 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $45 | 67% below $133.47 |
| Levered | $61 | 54% below $133.47 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.