BWX Technologies, Inc. BWXT
BWXT remains a hold as the nuclear thesis is real but the financials and technicals do not yet justify adding. FY2025 revenue grew 18.3% to $3.2B and EPS rose 16.9% to $3.59, yet operating margin compressed for a third consecutive year to 10.11% (from 15.35% in FY2023), with operating income falling to $323M from $381M in FY2024, while total debt nearly doubled to $2.0B.
At 42.5x earnings — an 84% premium to the peer median of 23.1x — and trading at $165.01, below both the 50-day ($182.19) and 200-day ($195.41) moving averages, the stock has corrected but remains expensively priced against deteriorating margins and rising leverage, with insiders net sellers over 24 months (-$19.7M).
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin has declined for three straight years from 15.35% (FY2023) to 10.11% (FY2025) despite 18.3% revenue growth, suggesting cost pressures or mix shift that could further erode earnings quality.
- Valuation premium unwinds. At 42.5x PE versus a peer median of 23.1x (84% premium) and 29.9x EV/EBITDA versus 14.0x median (113% premium), any disappointment in growth or margin recovery could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Leverage increase. Total debt nearly doubled from $1.06B in FY2024 to $2.0B in FY2025 against stockholders' equity of $1.23B, increasing financial fragility if commercial nuclear growth timelines slip.
- Insider selling acceleration. Insiders were net sellers over the trailing 24 months (-30,144 shares, -$19.7M), with the CEO selling shares as recently as August 12, 2026 at ~$172-174.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2023-FY2025 + FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals FY2024-FY2025 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on BWXT; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BWXT filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $925.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $805.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $739.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $503.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $375.7M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $362.3M | 0.0% of fund |
90 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 311 Form 4 filings, net −$19.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BWXT
Orin answers questions about BWXT from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.7× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.5× | — | — |
| P/S | 3.61× | — | — |
| P/B | 9.5× | — | — |
18.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$208
$170 – $255 · +50% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXTBWX Technologies, Inc. | $13B | 35.7× | 25.5× | 22.1% | 10.1% | 28% |
| AVAVAeroVironment, Inc. | $8B | — | — | 26.5% | -14.5% | -7% |
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $17B | 27.5× | 19.1× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $10B | 15.8× | 12.0× | 12.6% | 5.0% | 13% |
| RBARB Global, Inc. | $15B | 35.1× | 13.7× | 42.1% | 10.0% | 8% |
| TXTTextron Inc. | $13B | 14.3× | 9.1× | 16.5% | 6.1% | 12% |
| WWDWoodward, Inc. | $19B | 35.2× | 23.7× | 29.5% | 13.2% | 22% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 29.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.