Blackstone Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Blackstone has continued to slide since the prior buy call, closing at $106.61 on 16 Oct — roughly 17% below the 50-day MA of $128.20 and 15% below the 200-day MA of $126.24, with RSI at 30.8 indicating oversold but not capitulation.
Fundamentals remain strong: Q2 2026 revenue grew 28.5% YoY to $4.77B with EPS of $1.57, the company has beaten consensus in all eight recent quarters, and the P/E of 23.70 sits below the peer median of 25.66. However, persistent insider selling (net -$65.9M over 24 months, with executives unloading shares at $123–147), a declining smart money score of 0.02 as of Q2 2026, and an imminent Q3 2026 earnings report on October 22 where Zacks flags a likely decline create enough near-term uncertainty to warrant waiting for confirmation rather than catching the falling knife.
What could go wrong
- Technical downtrend unbroken. Stock has fallen from ~$114 at the prior verdict to $106.61, trading well below both MA50 ($128.20) and MA200 ($126.24) as of 16 Oct, with no clear reversal signal; MACD histogram is barely positive at +0.004.
- Q3 earnings miss risk. Q3 2026 results are due October 22; Zacks notes the company 'doesn't possess the right combination' for a likely beat, and Q3 2025 revenue was only $2.81B with a -6.2% YoY decline, setting a low but uncertain bar.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months insiders net sold $65.9M in shares; recent dispositions include Baratta selling ~100K shares at $123–124 and Finley selling 19.8K at $146.80, with no cluster buying detected.
- Valuation premium on revenue and EV/EBITDA. P/S of 7.65 is 108% above the peer median of 3.67, and EV/EBITDA of 16.00 is 33% above the peer median of 12.06, suggesting the stock remains expensive on metrics less flattering than P/E.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 16 Oct · Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · insider trades, 24 months to 23 Sep. Orin's read on BX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 24.1% over twelve months, from $153.85 on 27 Oct 2025 to $116.70 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $163.50 on 16 Jan 2026; the last close is 28.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 50.7M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All BX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.1B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.8B | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $2.8B | 0.4% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.6B | 0.2% |
| Bank of America | $1.4B | 0.1% |
143 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 87 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$65.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 14 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BX
Orin answers questions about BX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 39.7×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.8×below usual | 39.7× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 8.24×below usual | 8.70× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9×below usual | 27.1× | — |
| P/B | 10.6×below usual | 13.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $143 (from $118 to $169) — 23% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$143
$118 – $169 · +23% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 27.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $134B | 25.8× | 16.9× | 89.7% | 21.8% | 41% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $67B | 24.7× | 5.8× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $40B | 53.4× | 21.4× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $83B | 27.4× | 12.6× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $42 a share — 64% below the $117.75 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $42 | 64% below $117.75 |
| Levered | $75 | 36% below $117.75 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.