Blackstone Inc. BX
Blackstone's FY2025 results show genuine top-line momentum — revenue of $13.83B with 21.6% YoY growth and a 51.9% operating margin — but free cash flow margin compressed to 12.6% from 30.1% in FY2024, signaling deteriorating cash conversion even as earnings grow. At $143.41 as of 2026-08-25, the stock trades above both its 50-day ($129.63) and 200-day ($130.94) moving averages with a neutral RSI of 59.2, no longer overbought but not cheap at a P/E of 31.86 (10.5% above peer median) and a P/S of 10.80 (239% above peer median).
Smart money has turned modestly positive at 0.0399 as of Q2 2026 from -0.0372 in Q4 2025, and recent news highlights AI infrastructure tailwinds and strong Q2 inflows, but insider selling by the Chief Legal Officer and Chief Accounting Officer in August 2026 tempers enthusiasm. Hold pending evidence that fee-related earnings growth translates into improved free cash flow conversion.
What could go wrong
- Cash flow quality deterioration. FY2025 free cash flow margin of 12.6% is sharply lower than 30.1% in FY2024 and 51.5% in FY2023, despite revenue growing 21.6%; if this persists it undermines the earnings quality of the growth story.
- Rich relative valuation. P/S of 10.80 is 239% above the peer median of 3.19 and EV/EBITDA of 21.92 is 51.5% above the peer median of 14.47, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Insider selling. The Chief Legal Officer and Chief Accounting Officer sold shares in August 2026 at approximately $145–$147 per share, while net insider value over 24 months is negative at -$58.6M despite net share accumulation.
- Cyclicality of alternative assets. Revenue and earnings have been volatile historically — FY2022 revenue was $7.45B vs FY2021's $16.85B — and a downturn in real estate or private equity exit activity could reverse the current momentum quickly.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2025 and FY2024 · technicals as of 2026-08-25 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on BX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $3.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $2.8B | 0.4% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
140 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 85 Form 4 filings, net −$70.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 14 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BX
Orin answers questions about BX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.5× | 39.9× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5× | 27.1× | — |
| P/S | 8.98× | 8.70× | — |
| P/B | 10.4× | 13.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.81σ from its own mean).
27.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$144
$122 – $184 · +20% against today's price
- 19 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXBlackstone Inc. | $144B | 26.5× | 18.5× | 88.8% | 21.9% | 41% |
| APOApollo Global Management, Inc. | $72B | 26.9× | 6.2× | 84.5% | 5.2% | 9% |
| ARESAres Management Corporation | $40B | 53.0× | 21.3× | 62.7% | 10.0% | 15% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $87B | 28.9× | 13.1× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
| STTState Street Corporation | $50B | 15.6× | 14.8× | 65.3% | 15.0% | 12% |
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.5× | 6.9× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $45 | $119.08 · −62% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $81 | $119.08 · −32% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.