BXP, Inc. BXP
BXP's operational recovery is genuine — FY2025 operating income nearly doubled to $1.94B from $1.02B in FY2024, Q2 2026 occupancy reached 88.4% with 1.8M sq ft of leasing, and FY2026 FFO guidance was raised to $6.99–$7.05 per share. However, the stock has rallied from $67.90 to $72.13 since the prior hold call, pushing RSI to 62.9 and widening the P/E premium to 37.6x versus a peer median of 15.8x — a 138.5% premium — while free cash flow has declined for a fourth consecutive year to $690M and total debt of $17.4B sits against just $5.1B of equity.
The turnaround is real but the price has run ahead of the fundamentals, leaving risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Valuation stretch. P/E of 37.6x trades at a 138.5% premium to the peer median of 15.8x, limiting upside if FFO growth disappoints even slightly.
- FCF deterioration. Free cash flow has declined four straight years from $1.12B (FY2021) to $690M (FY2025), even as revenue grew, signaling rising capital intensity and lease-up costs.
- Leverage and refinancing. Total debt of $17.4B against equity of $5.1B, with a new $700M issuance at 6.050% due 2036 and a $1.2B loan for 343 Madison, increases interest burden and refinancing exposure.
- Insider selling. CFO Michael LaBelle sold 8,033 shares at $67.02 on June 9, 2026; 24-month net insider dollar flow is negative at -$8.09M despite phantom stock unit accruals.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-12 · peer_relative composite · FMP annual fundamentals FY2021–FY2025. Orin's read on BXP; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All BXP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $859.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $666.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $659.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $429.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $384.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $291.0M | 0.0% of fund |
73 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 128 Form 4 filings, net −$8.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BXP
Orin answers questions about BXP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.5× | — | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.8× | 15.3× | — |
| P/S | 2.82× | 3.41× | — |
| P/B | 1.9× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.51σ from its own mean).
3.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$72
$61 – $88 · +16% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXPBXP, Inc. | $10B | 33.5× | 13.8× | 46.8% | 8.4% | 6% |
| AREAlexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | $9B | — | 49.7× | 69.5% | -30.6% | -6% |
| CPTCamden Property Trust | $10B | 32.3× | 13.2× | 22.3% | 20.7% | 8% |
| HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $15B | 15.1× | 8.9× | 15.8% | 16.5% | 16% |
| REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $9B | — | — | 61.0% | -39.7% | -5% |
| UDRUDR, Inc. | $11B | 21.2× | 12.7× | 55.7% | 30.4% | 16% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 57.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $145 | $66.46 · +119% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $79 | $66.46 · +19% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.