BXP, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
BXP remains a hold as the stock has extended its correction to $59.20 (as of 16 Oct) with an RSI of 38.97 approaching oversold territory and a 4.4% dividend yield, but the risk/reward is still not compelling.
The P/E of 31.83 sits 95% above the peer median of 16.31, total debt of $17.36B dwarfs equity of $5.15B, and free cash flow has declined for four consecutive years to $690M as of FY2025. While FY2025 operating income rebounded sharply to $1.94B from $1.02B in FY2024 and Q1/Q2 2026 EPS beat estimates, insider activity shows net selling of 111,773 shares over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions, and smart money positioning is slightly negative at -0.01 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun.
What could go wrong
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $17.36B against stockholders' equity of $5.15B as of FY2025 creates a highly leveraged balance sheet vulnerable to refinancing costs if rates stay elevated.
- Valuation premium. P/E of 31.83 trades at a 95% premium to the peer median of 16.31, limiting upside if earnings growth does not accelerate beyond the tepid 2.2% FY2025 revenue growth.
- Declining free cash flow. FCF has fallen each year from $1.12B in FY2021 to $690M in FY2025, with FCF margin compressing from 38.8% to 19.8%, pressuring dividend sustainability and deleveraging capacity.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders disposed 111,773 shares net valued at $7.6M with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at prevailing prices.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 fundamentals. Orin's read on BXP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 18.3% over twelve months, from $74.53 on 27 Oct 2025 to $60.89 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $74.53 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 18.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 18.7M, on 27 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All BXP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $859.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $666.6M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $659.6M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $429.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $384.6M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $291.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $197.9M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $186.5M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $177.2M | 0.0% |
76 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 135 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$7.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about BXP
Orin answers questions about BXP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.7× | — | 42.4× |
| P/S | 2.76×below usual | 3.41× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7×below usual | 15.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.9×below usual | 2.1× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 12.5× to 821× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $70.18 (from $61 to $82) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$70.18
$61 – $82 · +15% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 18.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXPBXP, Inc. | $10B | 32.7× | 13.7× | n/a | 8.4% | 6% |
| AREAlexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | n/a | −45.3% | −8% |
| CPTCamden Property Trust | $10B | 9.7× | 5.5× | n/a | 94.9% | 27% |
| HSTHost Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $17B | 18.4× | 10.2× | n/a | 15.0% | 14% |
| REXRRexford Industrial Realty, Inc. | $9B | lost money | — | n/a | −47.8% | −6% |
| UDRUDR, Inc. | $11B | 22.5× | 13.2× | n/a | 30.4% | 16% |
- ARE, REXR: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- BXP, ARE, CPT, HST, REXR, UDR: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- ARE: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- HST: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 32.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now32.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $125 a share — 101% above the $61.98 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $125 | 101% above $61.98 |
| Levered | $63 | 1% above $61.98 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.