Citigroup Inc. C
Citigroup remains a buy as the earnings recovery stays intact—diluted EPS climbed from $4.04 in 2023 to $6.99 in 2025—and Q2 2026 revenues reportedly hit a decade high, signaling the turnaround has legs. While the P/E of 14.40 now trades at a modest 6.7% premium to the peer median of 13.49, the EV/EBITDA of 9.60 still sits at a 53% discount to peers and P/S of 1.52 is 34% below median, leaving meaningful re-rating room.
Management's aggressive talent hiring (investment banking, French operations, global sanctions head) and net insider buying of $93.9M over 24 months reinforce confidence in the trajectory, while the MACD histogram turning positive and the stock holding above its 200-day MA of $120.10 suggest technical consolidation rather than breakdown.
What could go wrong
- Negative operating cash flow. Operating cash flow has been deeply negative for three consecutive years: -$67.6B in 2025, -$19.7B in 2024, and -$73.4B in 2023, which could signal balance-sheet or working-capital stress despite rising net income.
- Rising debt load. Total debt jumped from $590.6B in 2024 to $715.8B in 2025, a $125B increase that outpaced equity growth and could pressure returns if rates or credit conditions deteriorate.
- Smart money turning cautious. The smart money score flipped from +0.1165 in Q4 2025 to -0.0456 in Q1 2026, and the data is stale as of March 31, suggesting institutional sentiment may be softening even as fund count rose to 65.
- Technical overhead resistance. Stock at $135.77 is just below its 50-day MA of $136.55; failure to reclaim that level could cap upside and risk a pullback toward the 200-day MA at $120.10.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite · peer_relative composite · insider transaction summary. Orin's read on C; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All C filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $15.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $10.9B | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.3% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $5.0B | 1.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $4.7B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.5B | 0.2% of fund |
147 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 185 Form 4 filings, net $93.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about C
Orin answers questions about C from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.0× | 10.6× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.1× | 21.0× | — |
| P/S | 1.30× | 0.88× | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | 0.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.29σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$150
$139 – $165 · +14% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCitigroup Inc. | $226B | 14.0× | 23.1× | 46.6% | 10.2% | 8% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $397B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| WFCWells Fargo & Company | $248B | 11.7× | 15.2× | 64.5% | 17.5% | 13% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $195 | $134.08 · +45% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-423 | $134.08 · −416% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.