Conagra Brands, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Conagra Brands remains a hold as Q1 FY2027 (ended Aug 30, 2026) returned to profitability with $268.4M in operating income and a 44.4% earnings beat ($0.41 actual vs. $0.28 estimated), confirming that FY2026's -$1.92B net loss was impairment-driven rather than operational collapse.
However, revenue still declined 1.4% YoY in Q1 to $2.60B, gross margin remains compressed at 23.9% for FY2026 (down from 25.9% in FY2025), and total debt of $7.27B against $6.36B equity — with an already-halved dividend — signals balance-sheet stress that one quarterly beat does not resolve. The stock at $14.47 trades at a P/S of 0.61, roughly 35% below the peer median of 0.95, but remains below both its 50-day ($14.90) and 200-day ($15.41) moving averages, and smart money scores have deteriorated to 0.01 as of Q2 2026 from 0.03 in Q3 2024, suggesting institutional conviction is fading even as the price stabilizes from prior oversold levels.
What could go wrong
- Dividend sustainability. Conagra already cut its dividend in half per recent news coverage; with FY2026 net income of -$1.92B and total debt of $7.27B against $6.36B equity, further pressure on the payout could trigger income-investor selling.
- Revenue erosion persists. Revenue has declined for three consecutive fiscal years (FY2024 $12.05B, FY2025 $11.61B, FY2026 $11.28B) and Q1 FY2027 still fell 1.4% YoY, indicating the top line has not stabilized.
- Gross margin compression. Gross margin compressed from 27.7% in FY2024 to 23.9% in FY2026, a nearly 4-percentage-point decline that limits the ability to fund debt reduction and reinvestment simultaneously.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score fell to 0.01 as of Q2 2026 from 0.03 in Q3 2024, and fund count declined from 60 to 58, signaling waning institutional interest at a time when the turnaround is unproven.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Aug · earnings vs estimates, 30 Sep · fundamentals, year to 31 May · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals. Orin's read on CAG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 23.0% over twelve months, from $18.50 on 27 Oct 2025 to $14.24 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $20.02 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 28.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 158.9M, on 29 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CAG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $393.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $290.3M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $275.9M | 0.1% |
| State Street | $222.6M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $177.5M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $167.6M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $148.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $116.5M | 0.0% |
| Quantinno Capital Management | $92.0M | 0.1% |
80 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 222 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $1.1M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CAG
Orin answers questions about CAG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.60× its yearly sales — below its usual level (1.20×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 21.1× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 0.60×below usual | 1.20× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 1.1×below usual | 1.7× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $13.75 (from $12 to $16) — 3% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$13.75
$12 – $16 · −3% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 33.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 23.8% | −17.0% | −26% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 15.4× | 10.1× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| GISGeneral Mills, Inc. | $18B | lost money | 9.3× | 33.6% | −4.9% | −11% |
| HRLHormel Foods Corporation | $11B | 33.1× | 15.5× | 15.7% | 2.8% | 4% |
| MKCMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13B | 8.6× | 12.5× | 39.1% | 19.4% | 22% |
| SJMThe J. M. Smucker Company | $14B | 59.3× | 15.3× | 38.7% | 2.5% | 4% |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $20B | 33.4× | 10.3× | 6.1% | 1.0% | 3% |
- GIS: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- CAG: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $17 a share — 17% above the $14.23 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $17 | 17% above $14.23 |
| Levered | $57 | 302% above $14.23 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.