Conagra Brands, Inc. CAG
Conagra Brands is a sell as the fundamental deterioration outpaces balance-sheet repair. FY2026 (ended 2026-05-31) produced a $1.63B operating loss and EPS of -$4.00, gross margin compressed to 23.92% from 25.86%, and revenue fell for a fourth consecutive year to $11.28B.
While debt was reduced to $7.27B from $8.07B and free cash flow held at $978.7M, the stock at $14.78 trades below both its 50-day ($15.25) and 200-day ($15.72) moving averages with a bearish MACD histogram (-0.084) and RSI at 40.2, signaling deteriorating momentum alongside declining fundamentals.
What could go wrong
- Impairment distortion. The FY2026 operating loss of -$1.63B was concentrated in Q4 (-$2.63B operating loss vs +$280M in Q3), suggesting large non-cash impairment charges that may not recur, making underlying earnings power better than headline figures imply.
- Q1 FY2027 earnings catalyst. Conagra reports Q1 earnings on Sept 30, 2026; a beat or positive guidance from CEO Brase's growth plan could reverse bearish technicals quickly.
- Deleveraging progress. Total debt fell from $8.07B to $7.27B and FCF of $978.7M supports continued deleveraging, which could attract value investors if revenue stabilizes.
- Valuation floor. PS ratio of 0.627 is roughly in line with peer median (0.621), and with positive FCF, the stock may have limited downside if the market views impairments as one-time.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-05-31 · derived_metrics, FY2026 vs FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2022-FY2026 revenue trend · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2026 vs FY2025. Orin's read on CAG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CAG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $393.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $290.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $275.9M | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $222.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $177.5M | 0.1% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $167.6M | 0.0% of fund |
77 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 221 Form 4 filings, net −$8.8M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CAG
Orin answers questions about CAG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 0.62× | 1.36× | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | 1.8× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−2.24σ from its own mean).
-6.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$14
$12 – $16 · −3% against today's price
- 6 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | $7B | — | — | 23.9% | -17.0% | -24% |
| CPBCampbell Soup Company | $6B | 14.8× | 10.0× | 28.1% | 4.1% | 10% |
| TAPMolson Coors Beverage Company | $7B | — | — | 36.2% | -20.8% | -23% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $38 | $13.31 · +182% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $70 | $13.31 · +425% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.