Cardinal Health, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Cardinal Health's FY2026 results (ended 30 Jun) show a genuine operational recovery — revenue grew 14.2% to $254.2B, FCF more than doubled to $4.525B (FCF margin 1.8% vs 0.83% prior year), and EPS rose 12.1% to $7.23 with eight consecutive positive earnings surprises.
However, the stock has run well ahead of the fundamentals: at $252.65 it trades at 34.9x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 25.2x (a 38.6% premium) with RSI at 71.4 (overbought), while quarterly revenue growth has decelerated from 22.4% in Q1 to 6.1% in Q4. Persistent insider selling — 54 dispositions and zero acquisitions over 24 months totaling $112.5M net — and rising debt from $5.6B to $9.9B over two years temper enthusiasm at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium stretched. PE of 34.9x sits 38.6% above the peer median of 25.2x, and EV/EBITDA of 18.4x is 27.9% above the peer median of 14.4x, leaving limited room for multiple compression without share-price damage.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Quarterly revenue YoY growth slowed from 22.4% in Q1 FY2026 to 6.1% in Q4 FY2026, suggesting the top-line tailwind that drove the re-rating is fading.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 54 dispositions and zero acquisitions, netting -$602,631 shares and -$112.5M in value, including consistent CEO sales in August 2026.
- Leverage and negative equity. Total debt rose from $5.609B in FY2024 to $9.948B in FY2026 while stockholders' equity remains negative at -$2.883B, constraining financial flexibility.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on CAH; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 50.5% over twelve months, from $163.80 on 27 Oct 2025 to $246.45 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $257.55 on 20 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.2M, on 30 Oct 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All CAH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $3.5B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $885.2M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $689.1M | 0.0% |
110 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 125 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$112.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 31 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CAH
Orin answers questions about CAH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 34.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 30.4×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.5×above usual | 30.4× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 0.24×above usual | 0.12× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.3× | — | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 12.5× to 285× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $278 (from $265 to $295) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$278
$265 – $295 · +13% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 34.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAHCardinal Health, Inc. | $62B | 34.5× | 18.3× | 3.9% | 0.7% | n/m |
| CORCencora, Inc. | $65B | 18.9× | 11.6× | 4.0% | 1.0% | 116% |
| HSICHenry Schein, Inc. | $9B | 24.3× | 12.5× | 30.3% | 3.0% | 12% |
| MCKMcKesson Corporation | $125B | 27.5× | 17.2× | 3.7% | 1.1% | n/m |
- CAH, MCK: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 34.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now34.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $718 a share — 189% above the $248.01 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $718 | 189% above $248.01 |
| Levered | $607 | 145% above $248.01 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.