Orin
CAHNYSE·Medical - Distribution

Cardinal Health, Inc. CAH

Market cap $51.4BP/E 30.6× trailingGross margin 3.8%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open
$219.63
−2.99 (−1.34%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $149.60 – $258.30
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 29 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Cardinal Health's FY2026 results confirm the operational recovery is intact — revenue grew 14.2% to $254.2B with EPS rising 12.1% to $7.23 and FCF margin expanding to 1.78% from 0.83% a year earlier. However, at 32.3x trailing earnings — a 3.4% premium to the peer median of 31.2x — the stock prices in much of this improvement despite negative stockholders' equity of -$2.88B and total debt of $9.95B.

Broad insider selling by the CEO, CFO, and multiple C-suite executives in August 2026, alongside a low smart-money score of 0.0384 as of Q2 2026, suggests limited conviction from those closest to the business at current levels.

What could go wrong

  • Balance sheet fragility. Total debt rose to $9.95B in FY2026 from $5.61B in FY2024, while stockholders' equity remains deeply negative at -$2.88B, limiting financial flexibility.
  • Broad insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold $212.3M in value; in August 2026 alone the CEO, CFO, CAO, CIO, and segment leaders all divested shares near $234–238.
  • Thin margins vulnerable to pricing pressure. Net margin of just 0.67% in FY2026 leaves little room for error; IRA pricing changes and GMPD challenges flagged by Zacks could compress already-slim profitability.
  • Valuation offers limited cushion. At 32.3x trailing earnings, a 3.4% premium to the peer median, the market is pricing continued growth — any deceleration in the 14.2% revenue growth or 12.1% EPS growth could trigger a re-rating lower.

What would change my mind

Debt reduction and balance sheet repair. Total debt declines meaningfully from $9.95B and stockholders' equity moves toward positive territorybullish
Margin compression from regulatory headwinds. IRA pricing changes or GMPD pressures compress operating margin below the current 1.03%bearish
Insider selling reversal. Insider transactions shift to net acquisitions or the 24-month net selling pattern of -$212.3M reversesbullish
FCF sustainability check. FCF fails to sustain the $4.53B FY2026 level or FCF margin reverts below 1.0%bearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2026 fundamentals + derived_metrics · FMP FY2026 fundamentals + derived_metrics · derived_metrics · peer_relative. Orin's read on CAH; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$3.6B0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp$3.5B0.6% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$3.3B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.8B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.5B0.1% of fund
Invesco$1.1B0.1% of fund

107 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 125 Form 4 filings, net −$212.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 31 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E30.6×—26.4×
EV/EBITDA16.5×15.5×—
P/S0.21×0.11×—

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.09σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

0.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

33 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$273

$250 – $292 · +24% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 18 buy or overweight
  • 15 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 33.9× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.$52B30.6×16.5×3.8%0.7%-60%
AAgilent Technologies, Inc.$49B34.0×25.9×53.7%19.5%20%
BDXBecton, Dickinson and Company$49B54.0×16.8×46.1%4.5%4%
CORCencora, Inc.$60B22.9×13.5×3.7%0.8%106%
EWEdwards Lifesciences Corporation$49B49.3×30.6×78.0%15.4%10%
IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc.$45B33.8×16.9×26.2%8.1%22%
RMDResMed Inc.$32B21.3×14.7×61.2%26.9%24%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 22.9×FY26 32.7×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.5×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$349$216.85 · +61%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$222$216.85 · +2%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $219.63
52-week range$146 – $258
Analyst targets$250 – $292
Standard DCF$349 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $216.85
Levered DCF$222 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $216.85
At own 5y-median P/E (27×)$198
At 5y P/E range (-16–75×)$-113 – $544
At sector P/E (26×)$192

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.