Carrier Global Corporation CARR
Carrier Global is a hold after the stock's pullback to $57.25 has pushed RSI to 26.9—deeply oversold—while 2026 quarterly results show a turnaround forming, with Q2 2026 revenue up 3.9% YoY to $6.35B and EPS of $0.60 beating the $0.817 estimate by 5.3%. However, the P/E of 39.4x remains a 31.7% premium to the peer median of 29.9x, the Pomerantz securities investigation announced in late August 2026 creates legal uncertainty, and net insider selling of $545M over 24 months signals limited insider confidence.
The improving quarterly trajectory and below-median EV/EBITDA of 21.2x versus 22.1x peer median temper the downside, but the legal overhang and elevated P/E prevent a constructive call at this level.
What could go wrong
- Securities investigation escalation. Pomerantz LLP announced investigations into CARR on August 25 and August 27, 2026; if a class action materializes with merit, it could pressure shares further and distract management.
- Valuation compression. P/E of 39.4x is 31.7% above the peer median of 29.9x; if 2026 earnings growth disappoints, the multiple could de-rate toward peers, implying significant downside from $57.25.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider selling of 7.35M shares worth $545M over 24 months, with 22 dispositions versus 49 acquisitions, many of which are RSU-related; continued selling could cap upside.
- Margin pressure. FY2025 operating margin compressed to 8.77% from 9.33% in FY2024 and 10.88% in FY2023; if cost inflation or mix shifts persist, earnings recovery could stall.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, Q2 2026 · earnings_surprises, period ended 2026-07-28 · peer_relative · peer_relative. Orin's read on CARR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CARR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital Research Global Investors | $7.8B | 1.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $1.4B | 0.2% of fund |
105 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings, net −$545.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CARR
Orin answers questions about CARR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 37.9× | 28.3× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.6× | 18.2× | — |
| P/S | 2.05× | 2.28× | — |
| P/B | 3.5× | 4.5× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+1.42σ from its own mean).
11.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$75
$62 – $80 · +37% against today's price
- 14 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | $45B | 37.9× | 20.6× | 24.3% | 5.5% | 9% |
| AMEAMETEK, Inc. | $56B | 35.9× | 24.1× | 36.6% | 20.0% | 15% |
| FASTFastenal Company | $59B | 43.2× | 30.0× | 44.7% | 15.5% | 34% |
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | $57B | 39.9× | 28.4× | 25.7% | 12.8% | 54% |
| GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | $60B | 32.4× | 21.0× | 39.4% | 9.9% | 49% |
| JCIJohnson Controls International plc | $88B | 25.3× | 27.0× | 36.7% | 14.3% | 27% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $45B | 24.0× | 14.6× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $59B | 23.5× | 19.1× | 14.9% | 9.2% | 13% |
| ROPRoper Technologies, Inc. | $37B | 15.2× | 10.7× | 69.5% | 30.2% | 13% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 31.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $33 | $68.94 · −52% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $19 | $68.94 · −73% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.