Chubb Limited CB
Chubb's FY2025 results show durable fundamental strength—revenue of $59.8B grew 6.5% YoY, diluted EPS of $25.73 rose 13.4%, and operating margin expanded to 21.8%—while the stock trades at a ~15% discount to the peer median PE of 14.2x at 12.1x trailing earnings. The pullback from recent highs to $343.11 (below the 50-day MA of $345.97) creates a better entry than the prior hold verdict, and smart money is modestly positive and improving (score 0.113 as of Q2 2026, up from -0.076 a year earlier) with multiple new institutional positions reported in August 2026.
Persistent insider selling and a bearish MACD crossover temper conviction, but the combination of valuation discount, expanding margins, and institutional accumulation supports initiating or adding positions.
What could go wrong
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders net sold 363,327 shares for -$155.7M, with recent sales by EVP Wayland (8,502 shares at $364.54 on 2026-07-28) and director Connors (5,500 shares at $345 on 2026-08-21), signaling continued distribution.
- Bearish technical momentum. MACD line of -1.37 is below signal of -0.62 with a negative histogram of -0.75, and price has fallen below the 50-day MA of $345.97, suggesting near-term downside risk.
- Catastrophe exposure. As a global P&C insurer, Chubb faces unpredictable catastrophe losses that could compress underwriting margins despite the current 21.8% operating margin.
- Revenue growth deceleration. FY2025 revenue growth of 6.5% decelerated from 12.0% in FY2024 and 16.7% in FY2023; a further slowdown could pressure the valuation case.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-25. Orin's read on CB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $11.7B | 3.9% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $7.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $5.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $5.2B | 0.5% of fund |
| Fmr | $4.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.1B | 0.2% of fund |
130 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 210 Form 4 filings, net −$155.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CB
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.8× | 12.0× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.9× | 10.0× | — |
| P/S | 2.08× | 2.07× | — |
| P/B | 1.7× | 1.7× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.23σ from its own mean).
-3.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $14.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$357
$301 – $387 · +6% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBChubb Limited | $129B | 11.8× | 11.9× | 39.6% | 18.1% | 15% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $397B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc. | $158B | 36.2× | 14.2× | 93.3% | 10.1% | 21% |
| KKRKKR & Co. Inc. | $87B | 28.9× | 13.1× | 22.5% | 15.0% | 10% |
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $118B | 10.2× | 8.2× | 26.9% | 12.8% | 35% |
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $75B | 9.5× | 7.4× | 34.7% | 17.0% | 26% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 7.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.