Cboe Global Markets, Inc. CBOE
CBOE's FY2025 results are genuinely strong — revenue grew 15.1% to $4.71B, diluted EPS jumped 44.5% to $10.42, and free cash flow of $1.15B funded a 19% dividend hike to $0.86 quarterly (16th consecutive increase) — but the stock has already rebounded from its 22% drawdown to $310.45, trading at 24.1x P/E, a 94% premium to the peer median of 12.4x. Smart money flows turned slightly negative at -0.0144 as of Q2 2026 with fund count declining from 63 to 60, and insiders remain net sellers on a value basis (-$1.65M over 24 months), suggesting the recovery has outpaced conviction from those closest to the business.
The growth story is real but largely priced into the premium multiple, leaving balanced risk/reward at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Regulatory friction. Kalshi petitioned the SEC to slow Cboe product launches (Aug 25, 2026), signaling rising competitive and regulatory headwinds in prediction markets and new product innovation.
- Valuation premium. P/E of 24.1x is 94% above the peer median of 12.4x and P/S of 6.4x is 189% above the 2.2x median, leaving little margin for any growth disappointment.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score deteriorated from +0.0396 in mid-2025 to -0.0144 as of Q2 2026, with fund count falling from 63 to 60, indicating institutional positioning is softening.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $1.65M in value despite net positive share count from RSU grants; recent open-market sales include Froetscher selling at $358.09 in May and $278.95 in August 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative composite · PRNewsWire 2026-08-13. Orin's read on CBOE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CBOE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Alliancebernstein L.P | $1.1B | 0.4% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $755.2M | 0.0% of fund |
91 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 187 Form 4 filings, net −$1.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CBOE
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.9× | 26.4× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.4× | 15.7× | — |
| P/S | 5.56× | 5.01× | — |
| P/B | 5.0× | 4.7× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.86σ from its own mean).
10.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$317
$258 – $356 · +18% against today's price
- 14 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | $28B | 20.9× | 13.4× | 52.3% | 26.7% | 26% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $25B | 7.6× | 5.5× | 52.3% | 23.8% | 21% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31B | 11.3× | 14.2× | 63.7% | 16.6% | 9% |
| USBU.S. Bancorp | $91B | 11.7× | 11.1× | 63.8% | 18.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 84.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $282 | $295.67 · −5% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $319 | $295.67 · +8% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.