Cboe Global Markets, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Cboe Global Markets remains a buy at $315.00 (as of 20 Oct), with the call now resting on confirmed momentum rather than a pullback entry: the stock has reclaimed both its 50-day ($288.74) and 200-day ($289.82) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram.
Fundamentals are accelerating — Q2 2026 revenue grew 22.9% YoY to $1.44B and FY2025 delivered 15.1% revenue growth with 44.5% EPS growth to $10.42 — and the company has beaten EPS estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters. Valuation is not a blocker: at 24.5x P/E the stock trades roughly in line with the peer median of 24.9x and at a meaningful discount on EV/EBITDA (15.7x vs. the 19.3x peer median), so the growth is not fully priced. New initiatives (extended options trading sessions launched October 2026, ETF listing transfers like PGIM's PHYL to BZX) support the diversification thesis beyond pure volatility-driven volumes.
What could go wrong
- Volatility normalization. Cboe's options-driven revenue is sensitive to market volatility; if volatility subsides, the elevated volume-driven growth seen in Q2 2026 (+22.9% YoY revenue) could decelerate sharply.
- Momentum exhaustion. RSI-14 at 64.1 and a $315 close well above the 50-day MA of $288.74 leave the stock short-term extended after a strong run, raising pullback risk on any soft guidance.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders show zero open-market acquisitions against 8 dispositions, netting -21,453 shares (-$5.43M), including CEO Fredric Tomczyk's October 2026 sale of 14,818 shares at $297.38 following an option exercise.
- Competitive pressure. Zacks industry commentary (October 2026) flags competition as a persistent drag across securities and exchanges names even as crypto adoption and non-trading revenue help.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · fundamentals, year to 31 Dec 2025 · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on CBOE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 36.3% over twelve months, from $238.27 on 27 Oct 2025 to $324.68 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $366.70 on 13 May 2026; the last close is 11.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.0M, on 2 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CBOE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| AllianceBernstein | $1.1B | 0.4% |
| FMR | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $755.2M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $689.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $518.3M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $341.9M | 0.0% |
93 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 190 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$5.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CBOE
Orin answers questions about CBOE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 26.5×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.2×near usual | 26.5× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 6.70×above usual | 5.01× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.2×near usual | 15.7× | — |
| P/B | 6.0×above usual | 4.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $339 (from $300 to $450) — 4% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$339
$300 – $450 · +4% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | $34B | 25.2× | 16.2× | 52.3% | 26.7% | 26% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $106B | 23.9× | 16.1× | 84.3% | 63.1% | 16% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $87B | 21.9× | 15.9× | 79.0% | 32.3% | 14% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | $58B | 28.2× | 19.9× | 63.2% | 22.8% | 17% |
- CME: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $245 a share — 25% below the $325.70 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $245 | 25% below $325.70 |
| Levered | $273 | 16% below $325.70 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.