Crown Castle Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Crown Castle's post-fiber streamlining is delivering real operational gains—FY2025 free cash flow of $2.875B on a 67.4% FCF margin with capex down to $182M—but Q3 2026's slight EPS miss ($0.67 vs. $0.687 estimate) and a 42.6% PE premium to tower-REIT peers suggest the turnaround is largely discounted at $81.14.
With total debt of ~$29.57B against negative stockholders' equity of -$1.635B, revenue still declining roughly 5% YoY through Q2 2026, RSI at 68.1 signaling overbought conditions, and net insider selling of ~91,725 shares over 24 months, the risk/reward is balanced but lacks a margin of safety at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Balance-sheet leverage. Total debt of $29.57B (FY2025) against negative stockholders' equity of -$1.635B leaves limited cushion if rates stay elevated or refinancing costs rise.
- Revenue attrition. Quarterly revenue is still falling ~5% YoY (Q1 and Q2 2026), and DISH losses plus carrier concentration risk could extend top-line pressure.
- Valuation premium. PE of 31.84 vs. peer median of 22.33 (42.6% premium) and EV/EBITDA of 20.89 vs. peer median of 17.64 (18.4% premium) leave little room for execution missteps.
- Overbought technicals. RSI of 68.1 and stock trading above its 50-day MA ($74.08) but below its 200-day MA ($82.31) suggest near-term exhaustion risk after the recent rally.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 21 Oct · peer comparison · Q2 2026 results. Orin's read on CCI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 10.0% over twelve months, from $97.60 on 27 Oct 2025 to $87.87 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $97.60 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 10.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 17.3M, on 23 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CCI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.3B | 0.2% |
| Lazard Asset Management | $1.1B | 1.7% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $744.4M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $479.6M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $441.5M | 0.0% |
95 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 83 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$9.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CCI
Orin answers questions about CCI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 36.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 58.6×); the typical Real Estate company on the NYSE is at 42.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 36.6×below usual | 58.6× | 42.4× |
| P/S | 9.40×above usual | 8.41× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.0×near usual | 22.9× | — |
| P/B | below zero | 7.9× | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $89.25 (from $84 to $95) — 2% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$89.25
$84 – $95 · +2% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 36.6× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (AMT 25.9×, SBAC 19.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCICrown Castle Inc. | $38B | 36.6× | 23.0× | n/a | 25.3% | n/m |
| AMTAmerican Tower Corporation | $86B | 25.9× | 17.6× | n/a | 29.9% | 91% |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $20B | 19.8× | 17.1× | n/a | 34.5% | n/m |
- CCI, SBAC: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- CCI, AMT, SBAC: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 36.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now36.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Real Estate companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 42.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now42.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.