Crown Castle Inc. CCI
Crown Castle's post-fiber-divestiture transformation is real—FY2025 FCF surged to $2.875B with a 67.41% FCF margin as capex collapsed to $182M from $1.222B, and operating margin recovered to 48.75%—but the stock remains in a downtrend at $74.65, below both its 50-day ($79.07) and 200-day ($85.67) moving averages as of 2026-08-19. EV/EBITDA at 20.25x still carries a 24.1% premium to the peer median of 16.32x, total debt held flat at $29.57B despite divestiture proceeds, and stockholders' equity worsened to -$1.635B.
Barclays' upgrade to Overweight (with a reduced $84 target) and the compelling FCF profile argue for patience, but absent committed deleveraging or a technical breakout, the re-rating catalyst remains unconfirmed.
What could go wrong
- Persistent leverage. Total debt held flat at $29.566B in FY2025 versus $29.613B in FY2024 despite fiber divestiture proceeds, and stockholders' equity deteriorated to -$1.635B from -$133M, raising balance-sheet risk if rates stay elevated.
- Valuation premium. EV/EBITDA of 20.25x trades at a 24.1% premium to the peer median of 16.32x despite the stock's downtrend, limiting upside if growth disappoints.
- Revenue contraction. FY2025 revenue fell 35.06% YoY to $4.265B following the fiber exit; sustained tower-only growth may not offset the lost fiber revenue stream.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score declined to 0.0145 as of Q2 2026 from 0.0247 in Q4 2025, with fund count dropping from 65 to 62, indicating waning institutional conviction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-08-19 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on CCI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CCI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Lazard Asset Management | $1.1B | 1.7% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
92 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 83 Form 4 filings, net −$12.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CCI
Orin answers questions about CCI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.4× | — | 56.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.5× | — | — |
| P/S | 7.37× | 8.41× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.48σ from its own mean).
-0.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$88
$84 – $95 · +26% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCICrown Castle Inc. | $31B | 28.4× | 19.5× | 63.2% | 25.8% | -52% |
| CBRECBRE Group, Inc. | $39B | 31.1× | 17.9× | 17.7% | 3.0% | 15% |
| EXRExtra Space Storage Inc. | $28B | 29.5× | 13.3× | 23.0% | 28.0% | 7% |
| IRMIron Mountain Incorporated | $34B | 82.2× | 21.4× | 54.2% | 5.5% | -38% |
| PSAPublic Storage | $53B | 27.3× | 18.7× | 60.4% | 41.8% | 22% |
| SBACSBA Communications Corporation | $18B | 18.3× | 15.7× | 63.9% | 34.5% | -21% |
| SPGSimon Property Group, Inc. | $66B | 14.4× | 12.1× | 84.6% | 66.4% | 109% |
| VICIVICI Properties Inc. | $26B | 9.2× | 11.9× | 99.3% | 67.5% | 10% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 4.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-12 | $93.08 · −112% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $6 | $93.08 · −94% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.