Carnival Corporation & plc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Carnival's Q3 FY2026 EPS beat ($1.43 actual vs $1.35 estimate) extends a streak of consistent upside surprises, and the stock has recovered 17% in the past month to $25.90, now trading above its 50-day MA ($24.88) with a positive MACD histogram.
Valuation remains attractive at 11.2x PE versus a peer median of 13.0x and 8.1x EV/EBITDA versus 10.6x, supported by FY2025 net income of $2.76B and FCF of $2.6B. However, gross margin compressed sharply from 37.5% in FY2024 to 29.6% in FY2025, total debt stands at $28.0B against equity of $12.3B, and insiders have been net sellers over the trailing 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions, keeping the call balanced until price reclaims the 200-day MA ($27.28) and margins show stabilization.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 29.6% from 37.5% in FY2024, a ~790bp decline that signals cost pressure or discounting despite revenue growth of 6.4%.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $28.0B against stockholders' equity of $12.3B as of FY2025 leaves the balance sheet highly leveraged, amplifying sensitivity to demand or fuel shocks.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders recorded 74 transactions with zero open-market acquisitions and net dispositions of 534,358 shares worth $16.3M, including multiple director sales in May 2026.
- Price below 200-day MA. At $25.90 the stock remains below its 200-day moving average of $27.28, indicating the longer-term downtrend has not been fully reversed despite the recent 17% rally.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 29 Sep · technicals, 16 Oct · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on CCL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 5.7% over twelve months, from $29.42 on 27 Oct 2025 to $27.74 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $33.99 on 6 Feb 2026; the last close is 18.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 84.3M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All CCL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.8B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $715.4M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $445.2M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $411.3M | 0.0% |
| Viking Global Investors | $408.5M | 1.2% |
99 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 74 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$16.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CCL
Orin answers questions about CCL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 12.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — below its usual level (14.7×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.0×below usual | 14.7× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 1.35× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4×below usual | 9.6× | — |
| P/B | 2.7×near usual | 2.8× | — |
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 0.88× to 10.4× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $33.16 (from $28.70 to $42) — 20% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$33.16
$28.70 – $42 · +20% against the last close
- 20 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 12.0× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (NCLH 9.4×, RCL 17.5×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCLCarnival Corporation & plc | $37B | 12.0× | 8.4× | 34.2% | 11.4% | 24% |
| NCLHNorwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $7B | 9.4× | 8.0× | 42.5% | 7.5% | 32% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $79B | 17.5× | 13.3× | 46.7% | 23.8% | 44% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 12.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now12.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.