Carnival Corporation & plc CCL
Carnival's fundamental recovery remains intact — FY2025 net income grew 44% YoY to $2.76B on $26.62B revenue, FCF reached $2.6B, and total debt declined to $28.0B from $31.9B in FY2023 — but the technical picture has deteriorated sharply since the prior buy call. As of 2026-08-28, CCL closed at $24.76, below both its 50-day ($27.42) and 200-day ($27.86) moving averages, with a bearish MACD histogram of -0.309 and RSI at 34.03 signaling near-oversold conditions.
Rising oil prices and a gross margin contraction from 37.5% (FY2024) to 29.6% (FY2025) add near-term cost pressure, while smart money interest has thinned to just 2 funds as of Q2 2026. The valuation discount (PE 10.72x vs peer median 19.21x; EV/EBITDA 8.08x vs 12.84x) is compelling, but the downtrend and macro headwinds argue for patience until price stabilizes.
What could go wrong
- Fuel cost inflation. Rising oil prices directly hit a major operating cost line; news on 2026-08-20 noted CCL fell 4% as crude climbed, and FY2025 gross margin already compressed to 29.6% from 37.5% in FY2024.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $24.76 is below both the 50-day MA ($27.42) and 200-day MA ($27.86) with a negative MACD histogram (-0.309), indicating sustained downward momentum.
- Institutional exodus. Smart money fund count collapsed from 66 (Q1 2026) to 2 (Q2 2026) with a near-zero score of 0.0225, suggesting major holders may have exited or reduced positions.
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $28.0B against equity of $12.3B leaves a high leverage profile that amplifies sensitivity to any demand shock or rate environment.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2023–FY2025 · Derived metrics FY2024–FY2025 · Peer relative as of latest. Orin's read on CCL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CCL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q1 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $847.8M | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $583.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $474.7M | 0.0% of fund |
111 filers · quarter ended Q1 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 74 Form 4 filings, net −$30.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CCL
Orin answers questions about CCL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4× | — | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.09× | 1.28× | — |
| P/B | 2.3× | 2.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.53σ from its own mean).
0.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$34
$28 – $42 · +56% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCLCarnival Corporation & plc | $30B | 9.4× | 7.5× | 34.4% | 11.2% | 24% |
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $41B | 29.4× | 20.3× | 24.1% | 11.4% | 53% |
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | $26B | 18.0× | 11.7× | 44.7% | 31.8% | 16% |
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $39B | 13.3× | 10.8× | 22.6% | 9.2% | 13% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | $48B | 21.8× | 17.4× | 72.5% | 18.5% | 48% |
| LENLennar Corporation | $20B | 15.4× | 11.9× | 9.5% | 4.1% | 6% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | $25B | 15.0× | 8.0× | 50.9% | 12.8% | 142% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | $38B | 17.1× | 17.2× | 45.8% | 25.4% | -30% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 45.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-349 | $26.11 · −1435% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-613 | $26.11 · −2450% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.