CDW Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
CDW remains a hold as the fundamental tension persists: revenue growth has reaccelerated to roughly 10% YoY in Q2 2026 ($6.57B) and the company has beaten EPS estimates in four of the last five quarters, but operating margin compressed to 7.4% in FY2025 from 7.9% in FY2024 and free cash flow has declined for two consecutive years from $1.45B (2023) to $1.09B (2025).
At 17.0x P/E, CDW trades at a 12% premium to the peer median of 15.2x and a 39% premium on EV/EBITDA at 12.8x versus 9.2x, pricing in a margin recovery the P&L has not yet delivered. The completed Lovelytics acquisition and accelerating buybacks are positive, but with $6.33B in total debt against $2.61B in equity and insider net selling of roughly 80K shares over 24 months, the risk-reward is balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Gross margin fell to 21.7% in FY2025 from 21.9% in FY2024 and operating margin declined to 7.4% from 7.9%; if business mix continues to shift toward lower-margin hardware, earnings leverage on revenue growth will remain weak.
- Free cash flow deterioration. FCF has declined from $1.45B (2023) to $1.15B (2024) to $1.09B (2025); if working capital does not normalize as management expects, buyback sustainability and deleveraging are at risk.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $6.33B against stockholders' equity of $2.61B at FY2025 end leaves limited balance-sheet flexibility, especially after the Lovelytics acquisition added incremental obligations.
- Valuation premium without margin proof. EV/EBITDA of 12.8x sits 39% above the peer median of 9.2x; if H2 2026 margins do not recover as guided, multiple compression could offset revenue growth.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · FY23 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on CDW; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 1.4% over twelve months, from $159.23 on 27 Oct 2025 to $161.41 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $165.11 on 23 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.5M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CDW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $812.9M | 0.0% |
| Harris Associates | $779.6M | 1.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $547.5M | 0.0% |
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $531.3M | 1.5% |
| Invesco | $528.6M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $502.4M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $470.1M | 0.0% |
90 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 183 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$15.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CDW
Orin answers questions about CDW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.7×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.4×below usual | 21.7× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 0.81×below usual | 1.11× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0×below usual | 14.9× | — |
| P/B | 7.5× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 6.9× to 40.2× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $150 (from $130 to $171) — 7% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$150
$130 – $171 · −7% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 15.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDWCDW Corporation | $20B | 18.4× | 14.0× | 21.0% | 4.5% | 43% |
| ACNAccenture plc | $144B | 17.2× | 10.9× | 32.0% | 11.3% | 27% |
| CTSHCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | $30B | 14.2× | 7.5× | 32.0% | 10.3% | 15% |
| DELLDell Technologies Inc. | $319B | 28.7× | 18.6× | 19.8% | 7.5% | n/m |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $15B | 4.4× | 7.5× | 35.8% | 26.8% | 22% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | $25B | 9.1× | 7.0× | 47.2% | 13.4% | 11% |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $237B | 21.0× | 16.6× | 58.0% | 16.0% | 33% |
| INGMIngram Micro Holding Corporation | $7B | 15.4× | 7.6× | 6.6% | 0.8% | 10% |
| SNXTD Synnex Corp | $20B | 15.4× | 9.9× | 6.8% | 1.8% | 15% |
- DELL: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.4× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $144 a share — 10% below the $161.40 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $144 | 10% below $161.40 |
| Levered | $147 | 9% below $161.40 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.