Cadiz Inc. CDZI
Cadiz remains a speculative water-infrastructure development story where genuine regulatory milestones have not yet translated into financial viability. The BLM's July 2026 approval of the Northern Pipeline right-of-way and subsequent guaranteed-maximum-price construction contracts are meaningful de-risking events, and 2025 revenue grew 70% to $16.3M with gross margin improving to 31.6% — but the company posted a Q2 2026 loss of $0.15 per share versus a $0.10 consensus estimate, net income was -$34.1M in 2025, FCF was -$26.5M, and total debt climbed to $104.2M against just $23.3M of equity.
At 28.3x sales versus a peer median of 4.37x, the stock prices in substantial future success that has not materialized in cash flows, and consistent insider buying (46 acquisitions, $8.0M net over 24 months) is encouraging but insufficient to offset the capital-intensive execution path ahead.
What could go wrong
- Capital requirements. FCF was -$26.5M in 2025 with total debt at $104.2M against $23.3M equity; the Northern Pipeline construction will require significant additional financing that could dilute equity holders.
- Valuation stretched. P/S of 28.3x is 548% above the peer median of 4.37x, pricing in execution success that has not yet appeared in cash flows or earnings.
- Earnings deterioration. Q2 2026 loss of $0.15 per share widened from a $0.11 loss a year ago and missed the $0.10 consensus, signaling cost growth may be outpacing revenue gains.
- Regulatory and project execution. While BLM ROW approval was secured, pipeline conversion construction, water-supply agreements, and green hydrogen MOUs remain early-stage with uncertain timelines and returns.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 · Zacks news article 2026-08-13 · PRNewsWire article 2026-07-10. Orin's read on CDZI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CDZI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Whitefort Capital Management | $16.7M | 4.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $14.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $10.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $5.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $4.2M | 0.0% of fund |
36 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 55 Form 4 filings, net $8.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CDZI
Orin answers questions about CDZI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 27.12× | — | — |
| P/B | 68.9× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$10
$10 – $10 · +162% against today's price
- 2 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDZICadiz Inc. | $321M | — | — | 27.1% | -310.9% | -207% |
| GNEGenie Energy Ltd. | $418M | 14.3× | 6.7× | 25.3% | 4.9% | 10% |
| GWRSGlobal Water Resources, Inc. | $232M | 73.3× | 13.3× | 64.8% | 5.2% | 4% |
| NRGVEnergy Vault Holdings, Inc. | $803M | — | — | 21.5% | -48.6% | -237% |
| PCYOPure Cycle Corporation | $265M | 18.0× | 13.6× | 57.8% | 43.7% | 10% |
| YORWThe York Water Company | $501M | 19.2× | 18.7× | -282.9% | 401.0% | 9% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.