Celanese Corporation CE
Celanese remains a hold as the operational turnaround is real but the balance sheet overhang persists. FY2025 operating income recovered to $767M from -$697M in FY2024, Q2 2026 earnings beat estimates on pricing and commercial execution, and a cluster buy by three insiders (CFO Kyrish, SVP Murray, SVP Duffie) between August 11–14, 2026 signals internal confidence.
However, two consecutive years of net losses (-$1.165B in FY2025, -$1.522B in FY2024), $12.9B in total debt against $4.0B equity, and an EV/EBITDA of 91.6x versus a peer median of 10.7x keep the risk/reward balanced. The stock at $46.26 trades below both its 50-day ($46.96) and 200-day ($50.33) moving averages, and while the VIGOR robotics partnership and H2 2026 Acetyl Chain moderation guidance are encouraging, sustained profitability and visible deleveraging are needed before upgrading.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and solvency. Total debt of $12.934B against stockholders' equity of $4.049B as of FY2025 creates a highly leveraged capital structure; any further deterioration in margins or cash flow could pressure refinancing terms and credit ratings.
- Persistent net losses. Net income was -$1.165B in FY2025 and -$1.522B in FY2024, with EPS of -$10.64 and -$13.93 respectively; despite operating income recovery, bottom-line profitability has not returned.
- Revenue decline continues. Revenue fell 7.16% YoY in FY2025 to $9.544B, following a 6.03% decline in FY2024, indicating ongoing demand or pricing pressure in core segments.
- Valuation disconnect. EV/EBITDA of 91.6x is 757% above the peer median of 10.7x, meaning the market prices in significant debt and earnings risk despite the 0.52x P/S discount to peers.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on CE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Norges Bank | $429.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $300.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $228.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $184.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $172.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $140.3M | 0.0% of fund |
72 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 142 Form 4 filings, net $18.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 5 were open-market purchases and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CE
Orin answers questions about CE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 92.4× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.54× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | — | — |
-8.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$60
$50 – $75 · +24% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CECelanese Corporation | $5B | — | 92.4× | 20.2% | -12.0% | -29% |
| ASHAshland Inc. | $3B | 60.6× | 10.8× | 29.4% | 2.8% | 3% |
| CBTCabot Corp. | $4B | 21.8× | 7.4× | 22.9% | 5.2% | 12% |
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 13.7× | 8.9× | 32.9% | 5.6% | 10% |
| HWKNHawkins, Inc. | $3B | 32.6× | 16.6× | 22.3% | 7.3% | 15% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.