Celanese Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Celanese's operational turnaround is showing real traction — Q2 2026 revenue grew 8.7% YoY to $2.75B (first positive quarterly growth in the dataset), GAAP EPS improved sequentially from $0.17 in Q4 2025 to $1.13 in Q2 2026, and the company announced multiple price increases across LCP, polyamide, and engineered materials lines in September–October 2026, while three insiders cluster-bought shares at ~$45.50 in mid-August 2026.
However, the balance sheet remains the dominant overhang: $12.9B in total debt against $4.0B in equity at FY2025, an EV/EBITDA of 42.0x versus a peer median of 10.0x, and two consecutive years of net losses (-$1.17B in FY2025, -$1.52B in FY2024) mean that sustained profitability and visible deleveraging are prerequisites before turning more constructive. The stock at $47.49 trades above its 50-day MA ($45.40) with a positive MACD histogram, but sits below its 200-day MA ($51.41), and the fundamental risk/reward stays balanced until Q3 2026 results on November 3 confirm the margin recovery is durable.
What could go wrong
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $12.93B against equity of $4.05B at FY2025 drives an EV/EBITDA of 42.0x versus peer median of 10.0x, making the stock expensive on an enterprise basis despite a low P/S of 0.54.
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell from 31.4% in FY2021 to 18.8% in FY2025, and while operating margin recovered to 8.0% in FY2025 from -6.8% in FY2024, it remains well below the 22.8% level of FY2021.
- Q3 2025 impairment repeat risk. Q3 2025 included a $1.28B operating loss (EPS -$12.39), largely impairment-driven; another non-cash charge or demand downturn could reverse the sequential EPS improvement trend.
- Token dividend signals caution. The quarterly dividend was cut to $0.03 per share (announced October 2026), suggesting management prioritizes cash preservation over shareholder returns amid the debt load.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on CE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 10.9% over twelve months, from $43.84 on 27 Oct 2025 to $48.63 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $69.24 on 1 May 2026; the last close is 29.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.7M, on 12 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $614.7M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $429.8M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $300.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $228.5M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $184.6M | 0.0% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $172.6M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $140.3M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $91.8M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $75.2M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $71.7M | 0.0% |
73 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 141 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $1.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 5 were open-market purchases and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CE
Orin answers questions about CE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.55× its yearly sales — below its usual level (1.15×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 8.6× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.55×below usual | 1.15× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.3× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3×below usual | 2.0× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 8.2× to 48.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $53.63 (from $46 to $65) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$53.63
$46 – $65 · +10% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 28.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CECelanese Corporation | $5B | lost money | 42.3× | 20.2% | −12.0% | −29% |
| ASHAshland Inc. | $3B | 63.8× | 11.5× | 29.4% | 2.8% | 3% |
| CBTCabot Corp. | $4B | 20.5× | 7.0× | 22.9% | 5.2% | 12% |
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 13.6× | 8.6× | 32.8% | 5.6% | 10% |
| HWKNHawkins, Inc. | $3B | 37.2× | 18.8× | 22.4% | 7.5% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $184 a share — 275% above the $48.92 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $184 | 275% above $48.92 |
| Levered | $59 | 20% above $48.92 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.