Constellation Energy Corporation CEG
CEG stays a hold. The AI data-center power demand narrative is a genuine secular tailwind — Constellation has long-term service agreements to supply nuclear power to hyperscalers and recently raised 2026 guidance to a $12 EPS midpoint — but FY2025 reported profitability deteriorated with operating income falling to $3.09B from $4.35B and EPS declining 38% to $7.40 despite 8.3% revenue growth.
The stock trades at a 16% PE premium to the peer median (26.6x vs 23.0x) yet remains roughly 9% below its 200-day MA of $300.88 as of August 19, 2026, while smart money conviction has turned slightly negative (SM score -0.0722 as of June 30, 2026). Free cash flow turning positive at $1.29B in FY2025 after years of negative FCF is encouraging, but the thesis needs confirmed earnings recovery and a technical reclaim of the 200-day MA before upgrading.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression despite revenue growth. Operating margin fell to 12.1% in FY2025 from 18.5% in FY2024 and net margin to 9.1% from 15.9%, while the gross profit jump from $5.99B to $19.36B likely reflects cost reclassification rather than genuine margin expansion.
- Valuation premium with deteriorating earnings. PE of 26.6x sits 16% above the peer median of 23.0x despite EPS falling 38% to $7.40 in FY2025, limiting downside protection if guidance disappoints.
- Smart money turning cautious. SM score declined from +0.1954 in June 2025 to -0.0722 as of June 30, 2026, with fund count stable at 69 — institutional conviction is fading even as the AI narrative strengthens.
- Nuclear sector sentiment fragility. A single-day 4% selloff in nuclear names on August 18, 2026 highlights how quickly sentiment can reverse on AI-demand or regulatory headlines.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual + derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics + fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative as of latest · technicals as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on CEG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CEG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
143 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 105 Form 4 filings, net −$101.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CEG
Orin answers questions about CEG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.6× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.0× | 11.0× | — |
| P/S | 3.03× | 1.52× | — |
| P/B | 2.9× | 3.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.68σ from its own mean).
25.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$355
$296 – $441 · +35% against today's price
- 15 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | $95B | 25.6× | 14.0× | 94.9% | 11.1% | 15% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $64B | 20.3× | 13.7× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| CWENClearway Energy, Inc. | $6B | 39.6× | 14.2× | 53.0% | 5.8% | 2% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $89B | 17.1× | 11.1× | 68.2% | 15.7% | 10% |
| GEVGE Vernova Inc. | $254B | 27.0× | 28.2× | 20.2% | 23.0% | 83% |
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | $161B | 17.2× | 15.1× | 71.8% | 32.0% | 17% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $96B | 20.0× | 12.0× | 43.4% | 15.4% | 13% |
| SRESempra | $52B | 22.8× | 13.5× | 41.7% | 16.8% | 7% |
| VSTVistra Corp. | $47B | 23.0× | 10.2× | 13.0% | 13.9% | 41% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 19.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $192 | $244.14 · −21% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $357 | $244.14 · +46% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.