Constellation Energy Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Constellation Energy remains a hold as the AI-driven nuclear power demand thesis is materially strengthening — Q2 2026 revenue grew 38.6% YoY to $8.28B and the recently announced Google deal adds 890 MW of nuclear capacity supporting $4.3B in upgrades — but the stock at $293.89 already trades at a 28.6x PE, an 8.2% premium to the peer median of 26.4x, with a 40.5% EV/EBITDA premium that prices in much of the upside.
FY2025 EPS fell 37.8% to $7.40 despite 13.8% revenue growth, and Q1 2026 showed extreme margin volatility with operating income of just $30M on $8.70B in revenue, underscoring that profitability has not yet caught up with the growth narrative. Technicals have turned bullish with the price above both the 50-day MA of $274.60 and 200-day MA of $285.80 and a positive MACD histogram of 4.20, but smart money conviction remains marginal at 0.03 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. CEG trades at 28.6x PE vs peer median 26.4x and 15.6x EV/EBITDA vs peer median 11.1x, a 40.5% premium that leaves little room for execution missteps.
- Margin volatility. Q1 2026 operating income was only $30M on $8.70B revenue despite 23.4% revenue growth, and FY2025 EPS declined 37.8% YoY, showing profitability remains inconsistent.
- Deal execution risk. The Google deal requires $4.3B in nuclear upgrades; cost overruns or regulatory delays could pressure FCF, which only turned positive at $1.29B in FY2025 after years of negative FCF.
- Smart money still marginal. Smart money score of 0.03 as of 30 Jun with 72 funds is improving but remains well below the 0.21 peak seen in Q3 2024, suggesting institutional conviction has not fully returned.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · news, 7 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · Q1 2026 results. Orin's read on CEG; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 33.8% over twelve months, from $391.15 on 27 Oct 2025 to $258.98 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $401.43 on 29 Oct 2025; the last close is 35.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 13.5M, on 6 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CEG filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.9B | 0.2% |
| Invesco | $2.8B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.4B | 0.2% |
| Canada Pension Plan Investment Board | $1.2B | 0.7% |
146 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 107 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $418K. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CEG
Orin answers questions about CEG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Utilities company on the NASDAQ is at 28.1×. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.1× | — | 28.1× |
| P/S | 2.93× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.5× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.9× | — | — |
- Listed on 19 Jan 2022 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $349 (from $296 to $441) — 35% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$349
$296 – $441 · +35% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | $92B | 25.1× | 14.5× | 22.2% | 11.1% | 15% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $46B | 16.3× | 10.7× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc. | $20B | 25.1× | 13.7× | 19.4% | 2.6% | 25% |
| VSTVistra Corp. | $49B | 24.4× | 10.5× | 38.0% | 11.6% | 41% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 28.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now28.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $143 a share — 45% below the $257.36 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $143 | 45% below $257.36 |
| Levered | $313 | 22% above $257.36 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.