Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Church & Dwight's margin recovery is genuine — FY2025 operating margin rebounded to 17.4% from 13.2% in FY2024 and EPS climbed to $3.02 from $2.37 — but revenue growth remains anemic at 1.6% for FY2025 and just 0.15% in Q1 2026, which does not justify a 31.4x P/E that sits 81% above the peer median of 17.4x and a 228% P/S premium.
The stock has improved technically (last close $98.11, above the 200-day MA of $96.30 with a positive MACD histogram), and free cash flow of $1.09B in FY2025 with declining debt from $2.85B in 2022 to $2.21B in 2025 supports stability, but insiders are net sellers over 24 months (-135,857 shares, -$13.7M) and smart money conviction is negligible at 0.02 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun. The valuation premium relative to peers is the core obstacle; without a reacceleration in top-line growth, the multiple has limited room to expand.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 31.4x P/E versus a peer median of 17.4x and EV/EBITDA of 19.96x versus 11.97x, any disappointment in growth or margins could trigger a sharp de-rating toward peers.
- Revenue growth stagnation. FY2025 revenue growth was just 1.6% and Q1 2026 was essentially flat at 0.15% YoY; sustained low-single-digit growth undermines the premium multiple thesis.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 135,857 shares for -$13.7M in value, with recent dispositions by the CEO and other executives, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Margin sustainability. FY2025 operating margin of 17.4% recovered from FY2024's depressed 13.2% but remains below FY2023's 18.0% and FY2021's 20.8%; any cost pressure could reverse the recovery.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · Q1 2026 fundamentals and results · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on CHD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 22.6% over twelve months, from $85.64 on 27 Oct 2025 to $105.01 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $108.86 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 3.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 6.6M, on 31 Oct 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CHD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $894.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $614.8M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $394.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $330.5M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $329.4M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $311.1M | 0.0% |
88 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 363 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$13.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CHD
Orin answers questions about CHD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 30.6×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.7×above usual | 30.6× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 4.00×near usual | 3.95× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.3×near usual | 21.1× | — |
| P/B | 5.7×near usual | 5.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $106 (from $83 to $115) — 1% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$106
$83 – $115 · +1% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $25B | 33.7× | 21.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $73B | 36.2× | 20.8× | 60.4% | 9.7% | 631% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $11B | 18.1× | 13.6× | 42.3% | 8.7% | n/m |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $37B | 11.1× | 13.3× | 36.5% | 19.9% | 163% |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $369B | 23.6× | 16.0× | 49.8% | 18.2% | 30% |
- CLX: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $98 a share — 6% below the $104.99 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $98 | 6% below $104.99 |
| Levered | $138 | 31% above $104.99 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.