Church & Dwight Co., Inc. CHD
Church & Dwight's operational turnaround is genuine — FY2025 EPS recovered to $3.02 from $2.37 in 2024 with operating margin expanding to 17.37% from 13.22%, and Q2 2026 organic sales surged 5.8% versus a 3% outlook, prompting a raised full-year forecast — but the stock's 31.4x trailing P/E, a 45% premium to the peer median of 21.6x, and a 196% P/S premium already discount much of this improvement. With the stock at $97.98 sitting just below its 50-day MA of $98.42, a negative MACD histogram of -0.30, and smart money conviction negligible at 0.0194 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, the risk/reward remains balanced rather than compelling despite the fundamental progress.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. P/E of 31.4x is 45% above the peer median of 21.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 20.8x is 58% above the peer median of 13.2x, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Margin pressure from cost inflation. Management cited inflation, tariffs, and transportation costs as headwinds in the Q2 2026 call; gross margin already compressed to 44.73% in FY2025 from 45.69% in FY2024.
- Revenue growth modest. FY2025 revenue growth was only 1.57% YoY to $6.20B, and Q2 2026 reported net sales grew just 1.6%, meaning organic strength is partly offset by FX or portfolio effects.
- Insider selling signal. Insider Irwin Bradley C exercised 4,300 options at $77.33 on 2026-08-11 and immediately sold the shares at $102.69, a classic exercise-and-dump pattern.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · derived_metrics · GuruFocus Q2 2026 earnings call highlights · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on CHD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CHD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $894.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $614.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $394.5M | 0.0% of fund |
86 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 356 Form 4 filings, net $36.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CHD
Orin answers questions about CHD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.8× | 30.6× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.5× | 21.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.65× | 3.95× | — |
| P/B | 5.2× | 5.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.65σ from its own mean).
8.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$109
$97 – $115 · +13% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.8× | 20.5× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| BGBunge Global S.A. | $21B | 21.6× | 15.0× | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $10B | 17.4× | 16.9× | 42.3% | 8.7% | -1894% |
| DGDollar General Corporation | $27B | 15.6× | 12.5× | 31.2% | 3.9% | 20% |
| DLTRDollar Tree, Inc. | $22B | 13.8× | 9.8× | 38.7% | 8.0% | 46% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $34B | 20.3× | 13.0× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| STZConstellation Brands, Inc. | $20B | 11.1× | 9.2× | 52.6% | 20.1% | 23% |
| TSNTyson Foods, Inc. | $18B | 30.8× | 9.8× | 6.2% | 1.0% | 3% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 76.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $128 | $98.23 · +31% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $179 | $98.23 · +82% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.