C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. CHRW
CHRW's FY2025 results show genuine operational improvement — EPS grew 25.13% to $4.83, operating margin expanded to 4.90% from 3.78%, and FCF margin reached 5.51% — yet revenue still declined 8.42% and the stock has cratered to $142.86, well below both its 50-day MA of $174.85 and 200-day MA of $172.87 with an RSI of 31.93 signaling oversold conditions. The valuation is mixed: the P/E of 26.90 sits roughly in line with the peer median of 28.33, but EV/EBITDA of 18.69 is 37% above the peer median of 13.65, leaving little room for error if the freight cycle deteriorates further.
Persistent net insider selling of $41.2M over 24 months, a near-neutral smart money score of 0.0047 as of Q2 2026, and an unresolved Dallas jury verdict being appealed add enough uncertainty to warrant patience despite the technically oversold setup and a MACD histogram that just turned slightly positive at +0.45.
What could go wrong
- Freight cycle weakness persists. FY2025 revenue declined 8.42% YoY to $16.23B; if freight demand does not inflect, margin gains from Lean AI initiatives may stall and the EV/EBITDA premium to peers becomes harder to justify.
- Legal overhang from Dallas verdict. A large jury verdict tied to a fatal accident in Dallas is being appealed; an unfavorable outcome could pressure capital allocation including buyback plans.
- Insider selling acceleration. Net insider selling of $41.2M over 24 months, including CEO Bozeman selling 11,693 shares at $180.34 on 2026-06-26 and CFO Lee selling 4,698 shares at $190.95 on 2026-07-08, signals limited insider confidence at higher prices.
- Valuation compression on weak guidance. EV/EBITDA of 18.69 versus a peer median of 13.65 means any disappointment on forward outlook could trigger multiple contraction from already-depressed price levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024 · technicals as of 2026-08-24 · peer_relative. Orin's read on CHRW; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CHRW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $703.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $666.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $654.8M | 0.0% of fund |
89 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 90 Form 4 filings, net −$41.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CHRW
Orin answers questions about CHRW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.2× | 26.6× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.5× | 18.2× | — |
| P/S | 1.04× | 0.62× | — |
| P/B | 10.9× | 7.2× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.51σ from its own mean).
7.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$195
$91 – $237 · +30% against today's price
- 23 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $18B | 28.2× | 19.5× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| ACMAecom | $8B | 27.8× | — | 5.7% | 1.9% | 13% |
| EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $25B | 27.3× | 19.2× | 23.9% | 7.6% | 41% |
| JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $22B | 33.3× | 14.1× | 16.3% | 5.3% | 19% |
| PNRPentair plc | $9B | 13.8× | 11.3× | 41.3% | 16.2% | 17% |
| RBARB Global, Inc. | $15B | 35.3× | 13.8× | 42.1% | 10.0% | 8% |
| SNASnap-on Incorporated | $19B | 18.6× | 12.5× | 51.2% | 20.4% | 17% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 2.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $57 | $187.39 · −69% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $47 | $187.39 · −75% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.