C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
CHRW remains a hold ahead of the Q3 2026 print on October 28, 2026, as the fundamental inflection — Q2 2026 revenue up 19.3% YoY to $4.93B with EPS of $1.56 versus $1.26 a year earlier, and an eighth straight quarterly beat (actual $1.61 vs. $1.53 estimated) — still awaits confirmation that it is sustained rather than a one-quarter freight blip.
FY2025 margin expansion was real (operating margin 4.9% vs. 3.8% in FY2024, FCF margin 5.5% vs. 2.7%), and the pullback to $139.75 has made the multiple less demanding: P/E of 26.3 now sits 39.8% below the peer median of 43.7, though EV/EBITDA of 18.3 remains 32.9% above the peer median of 13.79. Technicals are still hostile — the stock trades below both its 50-day MA of $148.06 and 200-day MA of $171.57 with a negative MACD histogram — and 24-month net insider selling of $20.6M plus a slightly negative smart-money score (-0.02 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun) argue against front-running the recovery. The setup is a classic wait-for-confirmation: cheap-ish on earnings, expensive on EBITDA, momentum broken, fundamentals turning.
What could go wrong
- Freight-cycle relapse. Q2 2026's 19.3% YoY revenue growth followed years of contraction (FY2025 revenue -8.4% YoY); if the freight recovery stalls, the margin-expansion story (FY2025 operating margin 4.9%) reverses quickly given the asset-light brokerage model.
- Valuation on EBITDA still rich. EV/EBITDA of 18.3 is 32.9% above the peer median of 13.79 despite the stock's decline, leaving little cushion if earnings disappoint.
- Persistent insider distribution. Net insider selling of roughly $20.6M in shares over the trailing 24 months, including CEO David Bozeman's sale of 11,693 shares at $180.34 in June 2026, signals limited insider conviction near higher prices.
- Downtrend momentum. As of 12 Oct the stock at $139.75 trades below both the 50-day MA ($148.06) and 200-day MA ($171.57), with RSI of 41.0 and a negative MACD histogram — a technically weak tape that can compound a bad print.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · earnings vs estimates, 29 Jul · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on CHRW; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 11.3% over twelve months, from $129.06 on 27 Oct 2025 to $143.59 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $209.42 on 21 Jul 2026; the last close is 31.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 16.4M, on 12 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CHRW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $703.9M | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $666.2M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $654.8M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $380.8M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $347.7M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $342.3M | 0.0% |
91 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 92 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$20.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CHRW
Orin answers questions about CHRW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 27.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 26.6×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.0×near usual | 26.6× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 0.98×above usual | 0.62× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.4×near usual | 18.2× | — |
| P/B | 10.5×above usual | 7.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $187 (from $91 to $230) — 30% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$187
$91 – $230 · +30% against the last close
- 17 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 27.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 35.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHRWC.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. | $17B | 27.0× | 18.4× | 10.1% | 3.7% | 36% |
| ARCBArcBest Corp | $3B | 104× | 14.4× | 77.5% | 0.7% | 2% |
| EXPDExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | $26B | 29.0× | 20.2× | 23.9% | 7.6% | 41% |
| HUBGHub Group, Inc. | $2B | 30.5× | 11.9× | 43.6% | 2.9% | 3% |
| JBHTJ.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $22B | 32.6× | 13.9× | 15.0% | 5.1% | 19% |
| KNXKnight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. | $10B | 66.3× | 11.1× | 25.3% | 1.9% | 2% |
| LSTRLandstar System, Inc. | $6B | 35.8× | 22.0× | 17.7% | 3.0% | 19% |
| SNDRSchneider National, Inc. | $5B | 48.6× | 8.9× | 13.8% | 1.9% | 4% |
- LSTR: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 27.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now27.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $51 a share — 64% below the $140.94 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $51 | 64% below $140.94 |
| Levered | $41 | 71% below $140.94 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.