CINYSE·Medical - Healthcare Plans

Cigna Corporation CI

Market cap $71.0BP/E 11.1× trailingGross margin 11.7%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open

$268.73

+0.46 (+0.17%)live 09:30 ET

52-wk $239.51 – $315.47

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Orin's take

0.72conviction · high

Refreshed 17 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

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Cigna trades at a 52% discount to the peer median P/E of 24.29x despite FY2025 revenue growing 11.3% to $274.95B and net income recovering to $5.96B from $3.43B in FY2024. The raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to at least $30.45 implies a forward P/E near 9.3x at the $282.56 close, while $8.39B in free cash flow funds ongoing buybacks and a $1.56/share dividend.

Smart money flows are improving (SM score rising from -0.0084 to 0.0995 with fund count expanding from 37 to 59 over the past year), and the technical picture is neutral rather than broken, making the risk/reward attractive for a GARP-style entry.

What could go wrong

Operating margin compression. FY2025 operating income fell to $9.13B from $9.42B in FY2024 despite 11% revenue growth, signaling cost pressure that could persist into 2026–2027.
GLP-1 pharmacy cost headwind. Cigna expects lower growth in GLP-1 drug prescriptions, which could dampen Evernorth pharmacy revenue momentum and complicate medical cost ratio management.
Insider selling pattern. Over 24 months, insider net value is -$16.5M despite net share accumulation of ~117K, reflecting option exercises sold at market—typical but not a bullish signal.
Sector medical cost trend. Elevated industry medical cost ratios could pressure Cigna Healthcare segment margins, particularly in Medicare Advantage where utilization has been volatile across peers.

What would change my mind

Medical cost ratio deterioration. Cigna Healthcare MLR exceeds prior-year levels by 200+ bps in Q3 or Q4 2026 reportingbearish

Operating margin recovery. Quarterly operating income growth turns positive year-over-year, reversing the FY2024→FY2025 decline from $9.42B to $9.13Bbullish

Valuation gap closes. P/E re-rates toward peer median as multiple expands from 11.65x toward the 24.29x peer median on sustained EPS beatsbullish

Smart money reversal. SM score turns negative and fund count declines meaningfully from the current 59, indicating institutional de-riskingbearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on CI; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All CI filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
10-Q	30 Jul	Shareholders' net income increased 8% year-over-year to $1.66 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, and 16% to $3.31 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026.	read
8-K	30 Jul	The Cigna Group announced its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026, via a press release furnished on July 30, 2026.	read
8-K	13 May	Cigna filed an 8-K solely under Item 7.01 to announce that management will reaffirm to investors over the next several weeks its prior 2026 guidance of “at least $30.35”…	read
10-Q	30 Apr	Shareholders’ net income rose 25% to $1.65 billion in 1Q-26 from $1.32 billion in 1Q-25, lifting diluted EPS to $6.26 from $4.85.	read
8-K	30 Apr	The Cigna Group filed an 8-K on April 30, 2026, solely to furnish its first-quarter 2026 earnings press release under Item 2.02; no other events were disclosed.	read
13G	29 Apr	—	on file
8-K	27 Apr	Cigna’s 8-K discloses only the routine shareholder vote results from its April 22, 2026 annual meeting, triggering Item 5.07.	read
13G/A	26 Mar	—	on file

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$4.8B	0.1% of fund
State Street	$3.5B	0.1% of fund
Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/	$2.9B	0.9% of fund
Fmr	$2.2B	0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management	$1.7B	0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$1.7B	0.1% of fund

111 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 120 Form 4 filings, net −$15.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	11.1×	15.5×	26.4×
EV/EBITDA	8.2×	10.3×	—
P/S	0.25×	0.45×	—
P/B	1.7×	1.9×	—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.54σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

-4.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $8.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

39 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$338

$302 – $400 · +26% against today's price

How they rate it

28 buy or overweight
11 hold
0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 23.1× of 9 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
CICigna Corporation	$71B	11.1×	8.2×	11.7%	2.3%	15%
BDXBecton, Dickinson and Company	$50B	55.0×	17.0×	46.1%	4.5%	4%
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.	$52B	30.4×	16.4×	3.8%	0.7%	-60%
CNCCentene Corporation	$31B	—	—	16.1%	-2.6%	-24%
CORCencora, Inc.	$61B	23.1×	13.6×	3.7%	0.8%	106%
CVSCVS Health Corporation	$110B	22.4×	13.0×	14.2%	1.2%	6%
ELVElevance Health Inc.	$86B	17.7×	13.4×	39.0%	2.5%	11%
HUMHumana Inc.	$45B	35.2×	17.1×	13.7%	0.9%	7%
IDXXIDEXX Laboratories, Inc.	$41B	36.7×	26.0×	62.4%	25.0%	72%
REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	$83B	19.1×	14.3×	84.9%	27.9%	14%
ZTSZoetis Inc.	$30B	11.8×	9.8×	70.9%	27.5%	69%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 52.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 12.9×FY25 12.3×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare

FY14 6.5×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$2009	$296.23 · +578%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$2044	$296.23 · +590%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $268.73

52-week range$240 – $315

Analyst targets$302 – $400

Standard DCF$2009 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $296.23

Levered DCF$2044 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $296.23

At own 5y-median P/E (15×)$375

At 5y P/E range (12–23×)$298 – $547

At sector P/E (26×)$641

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.