Cigna Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Cigna remains attractively valued at a P/E of 11.59, roughly 50% below the peer median of 23.35, despite FY2025 EPS surging 82.9% to $22.17 and revenue growing 11.3% to $274.95B.
The company has delivered four consecutive EPS beats through the period ended 30 Jul ($7.78 actual vs. $7.60 estimated) and reaffirmed FY2026 guidance at its September 30 Investor Day while targeting 10–14% annual EPS growth through 2030. With the stock at $281.03 trading above both its 50-day ($277.51) and 200-day ($280.00) moving averages and MACD histogram turning positive at +0.98, technicals have improved from the prior oversold condition, though persistent gross margin compression to 9.5% in FY2025 from 13.2% in FY2021 remains the central structural concern.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin has declined every year from 13.2% in FY2021 to 9.5% in FY2025, and operating margin compressed to 3.3% from 4.6% over the same period, indicating deteriorating unit economics.
- Revenue growth deceleration. Quarterly revenue YoY growth slowed from 11.1% in Q2 2025 to 6.6% in Q2 2026, suggesting the post-divestiture growth tailwind is fading.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 358,985 shares for a net value of approximately $90.3M across 21 dispositions versus 1 acquisition.
- $3B modernization spend. The multi-year $3 billion investment initiative announced at Investor Day could pressure near-term operating margins and free cash flow, which was $8.39B in FY2025.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · technicals, 8 Oct. Orin's read on CI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 3.5% over twelve months, from $309.18 on 27 Oct 2025 to $298.28 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $315.88 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 5.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.3M, on 30 Oct 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All CI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $2.9B | 0.9% |
| FMR | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $982.2M | 0.1% |
114 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 120 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$90.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 17 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CI
Orin answers questions about CI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 13.3× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.3×); the typical Healthcare company on the NYSE is at 25.8×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.3×below usual | 15.3× | 25.8× |
| P/S | 0.28×below usual | 0.45× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3×above usual | 9.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×near usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $342 (from $302 to $400) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$342
$302 – $400 · +15% against the last close
- 14 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 13.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CICigna Corporation | $80B | 13.3× | 11.3× | 9.4% | 2.1% | 14% |
| CNCCentene Corporation | $34B | 23.2× | 7.6× | 11.7% | 0.8% | 7% |
| CVSCVS Health Corporation | $104B | 9.4× | 8.5× | 14.2% | 2.6% | 14% |
| ELVElevance Health Inc. | $91B | 18.0× | 12.6× | 36.6% | 2.5% | 12% |
| HUMHumana Inc. | $49B | 38.6× | 18.3× | 13.7% | 0.9% | 7% |
| UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $368B | 23.4× | 14.9× | 22.8% | 3.5% | 16% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 13.3× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now13.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 25.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now25.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $1,933 a share — 542% above the $301.16 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $1,933 | 542% above $301.16 |
| Levered | $1,731 | 475% above $301.16 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.