Cincinnati Financial Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
CINF trades at a 43% P/E discount to peers (7.61x vs. 13.47x median) and a 43% EV/EBITDA discount (5.49x vs. 9.61x), with Q2 2026 revenue of $4.27B growing 31.6% YoY and FY2025 free cash flow of $3.09B against just $886M of total debt.
Operating margin compressed from 25.2% to 23.6% in FY2025 and the stock at $161.95 sits below both its 50-day ($171.25) and 200-day ($167.46) moving averages with an RSI near 35, reflecting near-term caution. Net insider buying of 210,736 shares across 24 months and the deep valuation discount create an asymmetric risk/reward at current levels — Buy.
What could go wrong
- Catastrophe loss exposure. FY2022 demonstrated the tail risk: revenue collapsed to $6.56B with an operating loss of $694M and net loss of $487M, showing P&C volatility from major loss events.
- Margin compression trend. Operating margin fell from 25.2% in FY2024 to 23.6% in FY2025 and gross margin from 49.4% to 47.4%, suggesting underwriting or claims-cost pressure may persist.
- Earnings volatility. The most recent earnings surprise showed actual EPS of $1.43 vs. an estimate of $1.84, a 22.3% miss, indicating estimates may not fully capture quarterly swings.
- Technical breakdown. Stock is below both the 50-day MA ($171.25) and 200-day MA ($167.46) with a bearish MACD histogram of -0.42 and RSI at 35.33, suggesting momentum has not yet stabilized.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · quarterly results · FY25 fundamentals · fundamentals. Orin's read on CINF; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 15.1% over twelve months, from $157.64 on 27 Oct 2025 to $181.41 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $192.03 on 2 Jul 2026; the last close is 5.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.1M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CINF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $776.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $494.5M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $354.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $347.9M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $307.5M | 0.0% |
77 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 372 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CINF
Orin answers questions about CINF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 10.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of the 4 of its last 5 fiscal years with a P/E (middle 9.3×); the typical Financial Services company on the NASDAQ is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.6×above usual | 9.3× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 2.10×above usual | 1.98× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.8×above usual | 7.0× | — |
| P/B | 1.7×above usual | 1.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $198 (from $197 to $200) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$198
$197 – $200 · +9% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 10.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 11.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $28B | 10.6× | 7.8× | n/a | 20.1% | 17% |
| ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $67B | 6.0× | 4.8× | n/a | 16.8% | 36% |
| CBChubb Limited | $137B | 12.4× | 13.1× | n/a | 18.0% | 15% |
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $131B | 11.3× | 9.1× | n/a | 12.7% | 35% |
| TRVThe Travelers Companies, Inc. | $81B | 10.2× | 7.8× | n/a | 17.0% | 26% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $27B | 15.2× | 11.1× | n/a | 10.4% | 19% |
- CINF, ALL, CB, PGR, TRV, WRB: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- WRB: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 10.6× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now10.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.