Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF
Cincinnati Financial trades at a 41% P/E discount to peers (8.08x vs. 13.72x median) and a 40% EV/EBITDA discount (5.85x vs. 9.73x), with 2025 revenue of $12.6B, EPS of $15.17, and $3.09B in free cash flow against just $886M of total debt — a fortress balance sheet. While operating margin compressed from 25.2% to 23.6% and EPS growth slowed to 4.4% in 2025, the stock has sold off 6.1% since its last earnings report and now sits near its 200-day moving average at $171.97, with net insider buying of over 210,000 shares across 24 months and new institutional positions being added.
The deep valuation discount and strong free cash flow generation create an asymmetric risk/reward at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Operating margin fell from 25.2% in 2024 to 23.6% in 2025 and net margin from 20.2% to 19.0%, signaling underwriting pressure that could persist if the P&C market softens further.
- Catastrophe exposure. As a property casualty insurer, CINF faces episodic catastrophe losses that can swing results sharply, as seen in 2022 when operating income was negative and EPS was -3.06.
- Technical weakness. Stock trades below its 50-day moving average of $177.65 with RSI at 45.2, suggesting near-term momentum remains soft despite approaching 200-day support.
- Institutional fund outflows. Smart money fund count declined from 58 to 53 between Q1 and Q2 2026, and the SM score of 0.014 is only marginally positive.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite · peer_relative composite · FMP FY2025 annual · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on CINF; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CINF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.9B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $776.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $494.5M | 0.0% of fund |
74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 372 Form 4 filings, net $6.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CINF
Orin answers questions about CINF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6× | — | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.79× | 1.98× | — |
| P/B | 1.5× | 1.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.42σ from its own mean).
-4.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$198
$197 – $200 · +22% against today's price
- 7 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $25B | 7.6× | 5.5× | 52.3% | 23.8% | 21% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31B | 11.3× | 14.2× | 63.7% | 16.6% | 9% |
| LLoews Corporation | $22B | 12.9× | 8.7× | 47.0% | 10.4% | 10% |
| NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation | $32B | 14.9× | — | 59.8% | 14.8% | 17% |
| WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $25B | 13.8× | 10.3× | 44.8% | 10.7% | 20% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 42.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $338 | $167.00 · +102% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $600 | $167.00 · +259% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.