Colgate-Palmolive Company CL
Colgate-Palmolive remains a hold as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30: the defensive franchise generated $3.63B in FY2025 free cash flow with gross margin expanding to 60.1%, but FY2025 diluted EPS fell 25% to $2.63 and revenue grew just 1.4%, while the stock's 35.5x P/E trades 58% above the peer median of 22.4x, leaving little room for error. Q2 2026 organic growth of 2.4% lagged inflation and the company's long-term target, North America remains weak, and the CEO exercised-and-sold shares in early August 2026, adding to two-year net insider dispositions of roughly $48.7M.
The Dividend King status and deleveraging (total debt down to $7.99B from $9.27B in 2022) provide a floor, but the negative MACD histogram and RSI of 43.3 suggest near-term momentum is fading at $90.21.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 35.5x P/E versus a peer median of 22.4x, any disappointment in organic growth or margin trajectory could trigger a de-rating toward peers.
- Earnings erosion. FY2025 net income fell 26.2% and EPS declined 25% to $2.63 from $3.51, meaning the elevated multiple is not supported by bottom-line growth.
- Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold ~$48.7M in shares, and the CEO exercised options and immediately sold 161,021 shares at ~$92.52 in August 2026.
- North America weakness. Q2 2026 commentary highlighted ongoing US challenges, with organic growth of 2.4% below both inflation and the company's long-term target.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2022. Orin's read on CL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $2.6B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.0B | 0.1% of fund |
108 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 191 Form 4 filings, net −$15.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CL
Orin answers questions about CL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.8× | 30.0× | 38.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.6× | 17.8× | — |
| P/S | 3.27× | 3.67× | — |
| P/B | 290.0× | — | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.74σ from its own mean).
7.0%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$98
$79 – $109 · +14% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $69B | 33.8× | 19.6× | 60.4% | 9.7% | 631% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23B | 30.8× | 20.5× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $10B | 17.4× | 16.9× | 42.3% | 8.7% | -1894% |
| ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. | $36B | 197.7× | 48.8× | 75.5% | 1.2% | 5% |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $32B | 16.6× | 12.4× | 36.7% | 11.8% | 123% |
| KRThe Kroger Co. | $35B | 30.8× | 10.8× | 23.1% | 0.7% | 17% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $34B | 20.3× | 13.0× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | $78B | 22.6× | 16.0× | 31.1% | 8.9% | 13% |
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation | $86B | 40.3× | 28.1× | 55.5% | 23.1% | 25% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 26.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $99 | $89.39 · +11% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $190 | $89.39 · +113% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.