Orin
CLNYSE·Household & Personal Products

Colgate-Palmolive Company CL

Market cap $69.1BP/E 33.8× trailingGross margin 60.4%Reports Fri 30 Oct, before the open
$86.36
+0.43 (+0.50%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $74.55 – $99.33
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Orin's take
0.72conviction · high
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Colgate-Palmolive remains a hold as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30: the defensive franchise generated $3.63B in FY2025 free cash flow with gross margin expanding to 60.1%, but FY2025 diluted EPS fell 25% to $2.63 and revenue grew just 1.4%, while the stock's 35.5x P/E trades 58% above the peer median of 22.4x, leaving little room for error. Q2 2026 organic growth of 2.4% lagged inflation and the company's long-term target, North America remains weak, and the CEO exercised-and-sold shares in early August 2026, adding to two-year net insider dispositions of roughly $48.7M.

The Dividend King status and deleveraging (total debt down to $7.99B from $9.27B in 2022) provide a floor, but the negative MACD histogram and RSI of 43.3 suggest near-term momentum is fading at $90.21.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. At 35.5x P/E versus a peer median of 22.4x, any disappointment in organic growth or margin trajectory could trigger a de-rating toward peers.
  • Earnings erosion. FY2025 net income fell 26.2% and EPS declined 25% to $2.63 from $3.51, meaning the elevated multiple is not supported by bottom-line growth.
  • Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold ~$48.7M in shares, and the CEO exercised options and immediately sold 161,021 shares at ~$92.52 in August 2026.
  • North America weakness. Q2 2026 commentary highlighted ongoing US challenges, with organic growth of 2.4% below both inflation and the company's long-term target.

What would change my mind

Organic growth reacceleration. Quarterly organic sales growth exceeds 4% with North America returning to positive volume growthbullish
Margin expansion sustained. Gross margin holds above 60% and operating margin expands beyond 21.3% for two consecutive quartersbullish
Further EPS decline. FY2026 diluted EPS falls below $2.63 or net margin compresses below 10.5%bearish
Technical breakdown. Price closes below the 200-day moving average of $86.80 on rising volumebearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · FMP FY2025 fundamentals + derived_metrics · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2022. Orin's read on CL; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$4.8B0.1% of fund
State Street$4.3B0.1% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$2.6B0.3% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.2B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$2.1B0.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley$2.0B0.1% of fund

108 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 191 Form 4 filings, net −$15.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Consumer Defensive
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E33.8×30.0×38.3×
EV/EBITDA19.6×17.8×
P/S3.27×3.67×
P/B290.0×

Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.74σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

7.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

45 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$98

$79$109 · +14% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 18 buy or overweight
  • 25 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 26.7× of 8 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CLColgate-Palmolive Company$69B33.8×19.6×60.4%9.7%631%
CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.$23B30.8×20.5×45.6%12.0%18%
CLXThe Clorox Company$10B17.4×16.9×42.3%8.7%-1894%
ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.$36B197.7×48.8×75.5%1.2%5%
KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation$32B16.6×12.4×36.7%11.8%123%
KRThe Kroger Co.$35B30.8×10.8×23.1%0.7%17%
KVUEKenvue Inc.$34B20.3×13.0×58.2%10.8%16%
MDLZMondelez International, Inc.$78B22.6×16.0×31.1%8.9%13%
MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation$86B40.3×28.1×55.5%23.1%25%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 26.6% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 29.1×FY25 29.9×

What its sector has traded at

Consumer Defensive
FY14 22.9×FY26 39.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$99$89.39 · +11%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$190$89.39 · +113%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $86.36
52-week range$75 – $99
Analyst targets$79 – $109
Standard DCF$99 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $89.39
Levered DCF$190 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $89.39
At own 5y-median P/E (30×)$76
At 5y P/E range (26–37×)$65 – $94
At sector P/E (38×)$97

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.