Colgate-Palmolive Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Colgate-Palmolive remains a hold as of data through Q2 2026 (quarter ended 30 Jun) and price as of 9 Oct.
Revenue growth is clearly accelerating — Q1 2026 rose 8.4% YoY and Q2 2026 rose 4.9% YoY — and the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last eight quarters, but FY2025 diluted EPS fell 25% to $2.63 with Q4 2025 posting a net loss of $37M, and Q2 2026 EPS of $0.86 still trailed the prior-year $0.91, so the top-line recovery has not yet flowed through to earnings. The stock trades at 34.7x P/E, a 29% premium to the peer median of 26.8x, and 3.36x P/S (61% above the 2.08x median), a rich valuation for a company with declining profitability and total debt of $7.99B against just $54M in stockholders' equity. The $3.63B in FY2025 free cash flow, 60.1% gross margin, and Dividend King franchise provide a fundamental floor, but the combination of premium multiples, a leveraged balance sheet, and net insider selling of 615,596 shares over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions limits upside conviction.
What could go wrong
- Earnings recovery stalls. FY2025 EPS fell 25% to $2.63 and Q2 2026 EPS of $0.86 still trailed the prior-year $0.91; if operating leverage does not materialize, the 34.7x P/E becomes increasingly difficult to justify.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $7.99B against stockholders' equity of just $54M as of FY2025 constrains financial flexibility and raises sensitivity to rising rates.
- Valuation premium compression. CL trades at a 29% P/E premium and 61% P/S premium to the peer median; any disappointment in growth or margins could trigger multiple contraction toward peers.
- Insider dispositions. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 615,596 shares worth $57.3M with zero open-market acquisitions, signaling limited insider confidence at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 FY26 results · FY25 fundamentals · Q4 FY25 results · Q2 FY26 and Q2 FY25 results. Orin's read on CL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 18.4% over twelve months, from $77.83 on 27 Oct 2025 to $92.17 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $99.14 on 27 Feb 2026; the last close is 7.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 17.7M, on 31 Oct 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All CL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.3B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.6B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $1.2B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $888.0M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $823.6M | 0.0% |
111 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 194 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$57.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CL
Orin answers questions about CL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 29.9×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NYSE is at 21.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 36.2×above usual | 29.9× | 21.9× |
| P/S | 3.49×near usual | 3.67× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.8×above usual | 17.4× | — |
| P/B | 311× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 108× to 1183× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $100 (from $95 to $106) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$100
$95 – $106 · +9% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLColgate-Palmolive Company | $73B | 36.2× | 20.8× | 60.4% | 9.7% | 631% |
| CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | $25B | 33.7× | 21.3× | 45.6% | 12.0% | 18% |
| CLXThe Clorox Company | $11B | 18.1× | 13.6× | 42.3% | 8.7% | n/m |
| KMBKimberly-Clark Corporation | $37B | 11.1× | 13.3× | 36.5% | 19.9% | 163% |
| KVUEKenvue Inc. | $37B | 22.3× | 14.1× | 58.2% | 10.8% | 16% |
| PGThe Procter & Gamble Company | $369B | 23.6× | 16.0× | 49.8% | 18.2% | 30% |
- CLX: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 36.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now36.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 21.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now21.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $125 a share — 36% above the $92.28 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $125 | 36% above $92.28 |
| Levered | $154 | 66% above $92.28 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.