Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Cleveland-Cliffs has confirmed a profitability inflection with Q3 2026 actual EPS of $0.28 beating estimates of $0.214 by 30.8%, marking the first positive quarter after sequential improvement from Q1's -$0.42 and Q2's -$0.25.
Q2 2026 already produced the first positive gross profit ($195M) and operating income ($14M) in several quarters, with revenue growing approximately 6% YoY in both Q1 and Q2 2026, and management's projection of $1 billion in EBITDA from steel contract renewals provides a credible path to sustained profitability. At a P/S of 0.42 versus a peer median of 1.05, the stock trades at a steep discount to competitors despite the improving trajectory, though the $8.171B total debt against $6.116B equity from FY2025 and cumulative FCF burn of -$1.023B that year keep leverage risk elevated.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet leverage. FY2025 total debt of $8.171B against equity of $6.116B, with negative operating cash flow of -$462M that year, leaves limited cushion if steel prices reverse.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 3.49M shares worth $42.6M, including the CFO selling 214,308 shares at $13.41 in June 2026.
- Valuation premium on EV/EBITDA. EV/EBITDA of 28.7 sits 138.7% above the peer median of 12.0, reflecting depressed trailing EBITDA that could persist if the recovery stalls.
- Cyclical steel pricing. The turnaround depends on sustained steel pricing and contract renewals; any downturn in steel spreads would quickly reverse the margin improvement seen in Q2 and Q3 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 19 Oct · Q2 2026 results · Q1–Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on CLF; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 0.9% over twelve months, from $13.77 on 27 Oct 2025 to $13.90 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $15.09 on 23 Jan 2026; the last close is 7.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 88.4M, on 19 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All CLF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $522.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $312.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $242.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $236.5M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $144.5M | 0.1% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $142.7M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $99.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $74.3M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $74.2M | 0.0% |
| PointState Capital | $61.8M | 0.8% |
84 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 89 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$42.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CLF
Orin answers questions about CLF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.40× its yearly sales — above its usual level (0.36×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.40×above usual | 0.36× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.7× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.4×above usual | 1.1× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 4.1× to 26.2× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 3.5× to 32.4× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $14 (from $11.50 to $17.48) — 1% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$14
$11.50 – $17.48 · +1% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 17.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $8B | lost money | 15.7× | 1.9% | −2.4% | −8% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | $7B | 10.8× | 7.7× | 18.6% | 7.0% | 15% |
| FRDFriedman Industries, Incorporated | $256M | 6.2× | 4.2× | 9.4% | 4.6% | 25% |
| NUENucor Corporation | $61B | 17.2× | 9.7× | 17.3% | 9.3% | 16% |
| RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $22B | 20.0× | 13.2× | 26.9% | 6.4% | 15% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | $35B | 18.1× | 11.0× | 15.8% | 8.8% | 21% |
| WSWorthington Steel, Inc. | $2B | lost money | 19.9× | 10.4% | −0.6% | −3% |
- WS: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $20 a share — 46% above the $13.90 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $20 | 46% above $13.90 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.