Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs posted a deeply unprofitable FY2025 with negative gross profit of -$763M, operating loss of -$1.356B, and FCF of -$1.023B, while total debt ballooned to $8.17B from $3.59B in FY2023 — yet recent news signals a Q2 2026 sequential inflection (EBITDA tripled, FCF turned positive) aided by escalating U.S.-Canada tariff tensions, a new $522.77M BlackRock position, and $500M in DOE support for the Middletown Works. The stock at $11.62 trades above both its 50-day ($10.94) and 200-day ($11.38) moving averages, but its EV/EBITDA of 22.93 sits roughly 140% above the peer median of 9.56, pricing in the leverage overhang.
The turnaround is credible but unproven on a sustained-profitability basis, and the CFO's June 2026 sale of 214,308 shares at $13.41 — above the current price — tempers confidence in the recovery's durability.
What could go wrong
- Leverage overhang. Total debt reached $8.17B in FY2025 against stockholders' equity of $6.12B, up from $3.59B in debt in FY2023, making the balance sheet fragile if steel prices falter.
- Margin collapse. Gross margin deteriorated from 22.2% in FY2021 to -4.1% in FY2025, and the company has not demonstrated a full year of gross profitability since FY2023.
- Tariff reversal. Recent stock strength is partly tied to U.S.-Canada trade tensions; any de-escalation or tariff rollback could remove the pricing tailwind for domestic steel.
- Insider selling. The EVP and CFO sold 214,308 shares at $13.41 in June 2026, a price above the current $11.62 close, signaling limited executive conviction in near-term upside.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual · FMP FY2023 and FY2025 annual · derived_metrics FY2021 and FY2025 · peer_relative. Orin's read on CLF; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CLF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $312.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $242.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $236.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| D. E. Shaw & | $144.5M | 0.1% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $142.7M | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $99.0M | 0.0% of fund |
82 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 89 Form 4 filings, net −$45.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CLF
Orin answers questions about CLF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 24.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.38× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$12
$9 – $17 · −6% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 23 hold
- 11 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $7B | — | 24.1× | -0.6% | -4.6% | -15% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | $7B | 12.1× | 8.7× | 18.6% | 6.7% | 14% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.3× | 9.6× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.