Comcast Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Comcast trades at a deep discount to peers on every metric — 7.26x P/E versus a peer median of 11.60x, 0.63x P/S versus 1.56x, and 4.74x EV/EBITDA versus 7.82x — while delivering eight consecutive EPS beats, most recently Q2 2026 actual EPS of $1.04 against $0.97 estimated.
FY2025 free cash flow margin expanded to 17.7% on $21.9B of FCF, and net income grew 23.5% year-over-year, even as revenue stayed flat and operating income compressed from $23.3B to $20.7B. With the stock at $22.36, still below both the 50-day ($23.99) and 200-day ($26.32) moving averages, and Q3 2026 results due October 22, the risk/reward remains favorable for a contrarian entry into a cash-generative business priced for structural decline.
What could go wrong
- Revenue erosion. Q2 2026 revenue fell 1.2% YoY to $29.94B and FY2025 revenue was essentially flat at $123.7B, suggesting the broadband cord-cutting and competitive pressure is accelerating.
- Operating margin compression. Operating margin declined from 18.8% in FY2024 to 16.7% in FY2025, with operating income falling from $23.3B to $20.7B.
- Insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 70,716 shares worth $2.28M with zero open-market acquisitions, and Co-CEO Cavanagh liquidated all phantom stock holdings.
- Q3 earnings disappointment. Zacks consensus for Q3 2026 is $0.98 per share, down a penny over 30 days, and analysts flag a likely earnings decline, creating near-term downside risk around the October 22 report.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · earnings vs estimates · fundamentals · quarterly results. Orin's read on CMCSA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 25.8% over twelve months, from $29.42 on 27 Oct 2025 to $21.84 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $32.48 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 32.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 246.1M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CMCSA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $7.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.8B | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $3.3B | 0.4% |
| Invesco | $3.1B | 0.2% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.9B | 0.4% |
| Capital World Investors | $2.6B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.9B | 0.2% |
129 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 159 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CMCSA
Orin answers questions about CMCSA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 6.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Communication Services company on the NASDAQ is at 18.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 6.9× | — | 18.9× |
| P/S | 0.63×below usual | 1.27× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.7×below usual | 7.3× | — |
| P/B | 0.8×below usual | 1.9× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 5.2× to 28.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $26.05 (from $18 to $35) — 19% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$26.05
$18 – $35 · +19% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 6.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 13.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $77B | 6.9× | 4.7× | 69.8% | 9.2% | 12% |
| CHTRCharter Communications, Inc. | $14B | 2.7× | 5.2× | 46.0% | 9.1% | 30% |
| DISThe Walt Disney Company | $190B | 22.7× | 10.0× | 37.6% | 8.7% | 8% |
| FOXFox Corporation | $26B | 14.8× | 7.6× | 36.6% | 9.8% | 15% |
| SKYDParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $8B | lost money | n/m | 28.8% | −2.1% | −5% |
| TAT&T Inc. | $141B | 11.3× | 6.7× | 59.7% | 10.1% | 12% |
| TMUST-Mobile US, Inc. | $158B | 15.3× | 8.7× | 54.5% | 11.5% | 18% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | $183B | 11.2× | 7.5× | 59.1% | 11.8% | 16% |
| WBDWarner Bros. Discovery, Inc. | $78B | lost money | 7.8× | 47.2% | −8.8% | −9% |
- SKYD, WBD: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- SKYD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 6.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now6.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $301 a share — 1279% above the $21.82 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $301 | 1279% above $21.82 |
| Levered | $200 | 817% above $21.82 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.