Comcast Corporation CMCSA
Comcast remains a hold as the stock has rallied to $27.06, essentially touching its 200-day MA of $27.05 — a critical inflection point that must be decisively breached to confirm a trend reversal. FY2025 fundamentals show genuine improvement with EPS up 30.2% to $5.39 and FCF margin expanding to 17.7% from 12.4%, yet operating income fell to $20.7B from $23.3B and total debt rose 11% to $110.4B, signaling that core profitability is still under pressure despite the bottom-line gains.
The valuation discount is steep — P/E of 8.79x versus a peer median of 10.81x and EV/EBITDA of 5.24x versus 7.14x — but a slightly negative smart money score of -0.0719 as of Q2 2026 and persistent net insider selling of 2.82M shares over 24 months temper enthusiasm. The separation narrative circulating in recent news could unlock conglomerate discount value, but until a concrete plan is announced or the stock breaks above the 200-day MA with volume, the risk/reward is balanced.
What could go wrong
- Operating margin compression. FY2025 operating margin fell to 16.71% from 18.83% in FY2024, with operating income declining to $20.7B from $23.3B despite flat revenue of $123.7B.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $110.4B in FY2025 from $99.1B in FY2024, while stockholders' equity grew only modestly to $96.9B, increasing financial risk.
- Negative institutional and insider flows. Smart money score of -0.0719 as of 2026-06-30 with fund count declining to 67 from 70, and net insider selling of 2.82M shares over 24 months.
- Technical resistance at 200-day MA. Stock closed at $27.06 on 2026-08-28, essentially at the 200-day MA of $27.05, a level that has previously capped rallies; failure to hold above risks a pullback toward the 50-day MA of $24.44.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2025 vs FY2024. Orin's read on CMCSA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CMCSA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $3.3B | 0.4% of fund |
| Invesco | $3.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $2.9B | 0.4% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $2.6B | 0.3% of fund |
126 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 154 Form 4 filings, net −$42.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CMCSA
Orin answers questions about CMCSA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3× | 11.7× | 26.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8× | 7.3× | — |
| P/S | 0.64× | 1.27× | — |
| P/B | 0.9× | 1.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.84σ from its own mean).
-17.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $21.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$29
$23 – $36 · +28% against today's price
- 34 buy or overweight
- 25 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMCSAComcast Corporation | $80B | 7.3× | 4.8× | 69.4% | 9.0% | 12% |
| CHTRCharter Communications, Inc. | $16B | 3.0× | 5.6× | 56.6% | 9.1% | 30% |
| DASHDoorDash, Inc. | $82B | 97.6× | 43.5× | 51.4% | 5.3% | 8% |
| TAT&T Inc. | $174B | 8.4× | 5.9× | 59.7% | 16.9% | 19% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | $194B | 12.1× | 7.9× | 59.1% | 11.6% | 16% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $375 | $24.07 · +1459% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $253 | $24.07 · +953% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.