Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG
Chipotle's growth engine has materially decelerated—FY2025 revenue growth slowed to 5.4% from 14.6% in FY2024, net income was essentially flat at $1.54B, and gross margin compressed from 26.7% to 25.4%—yet the stock still trades at a 31x P/E and 21x EV/EBITDA, roughly 73% and 80% premiums to peer medians. The balance sheet deterioration is striking: total debt more than doubled from $4.54B to $9.85B while stockholders' equity contracted from $3.66B to $2.83B.
Insider buying by the new Chief Brand Officer and multiple directors at $31.25–$32.79, plus a slightly positive smart-money score of 0.0052 as of Q2 2026, suggest confidence at these levels, but the combination of decelerating growth, margin pressure, a cyclospora outbreak overhang, and a bearish MACD histogram keeps the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Cyclospora outbreak impact. A multistate cyclospora outbreak linked to lettuce is causing consumers to cut back on eating out and has driven record lettuce price declines; Chipotle's food-safety reputation is directly exposed.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt more than doubled from $4.54B in FY2024 to $9.85B in FY2025 while equity fell from $3.66B to $2.83B, raising financial risk if growth continues to slow.
- Valuation premium. At 31x P/E and 21x EV/EBITDA, CMG trades at 73% and 80% premiums to peer medians, leaving little room for further earnings deceleration.
- Margin compression trend. Gross margin fell from 26.7% to 25.4% and FCF declined from $1.51B to $1.45B year-over-year, signaling cost pressures amid a cautious consumer.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025/FY2024 · fundamentals FY2025/FY2024 · derived_metrics FY2024/FY2025 · fundamentals FY2024/FY2025. Orin's read on CMG; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CMG filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 8-K | 5 Aug | Chipotle Mexican Grill is cooperating with public health authorities investigating a salmonella outbreak impacting other food service retailers. | read |
| 10-Q | 31 Jul | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 29 Jul | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 27 Jul | — | on file |
| 13G | 16 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 16 Jun | Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | read |
| 13G/A | 14 May | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $1.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
106 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 104 Form 4 filings, net $2.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CMG
Orin answers questions about CMG from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.0× | 51.3× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.7× | 34.1× | — |
| P/S | 3.38× | 6.38× | — |
| P/B | 19.2× | 20.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.48σ from its own mean).
12.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$42
$38 – $50 · +30% against today's price
- 46 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $42B | 30.0× | 20.7× | 24.1% | 11.4% | 53% |
| CCLCarnival Corporation & plc | $30B | 9.4× | 7.5× | 34.4% | 11.2% | 24% |
| CPRTCopart, Inc. | $27B | 18.5× | 12.1× | 44.7% | 31.8% | 16% |
| DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $39B | 13.3× | 10.8× | 22.6% | 9.2% | 13% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | $48B | 22.1× | 17.6× | 72.5% | 18.5% | 48% |
| LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp. | $25B | 15.2× | 8.1× | 50.9% | 12.8% | 142% |
| YUMYum! Brands, Inc. | $39B | 17.6× | 17.5× | 45.8% | 25.4% | -30% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 83.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $28 | $30.46 · −7% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $25 | $30.46 · −16% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.