Cummins Inc. CMI
Cummins remains a hold after a sharp correction from ~$641 to $571.62 that has pushed RSI to 29 — deeply oversold — but has not yet been confirmed by improving fundamentals or a technical bottom. The data-center power demand narrative is tangible: Power Systems sales jumped 19%, Cummins was selected for its largest BESS deployment at a U.S. data center, and management projects data-center revenue rising from $5B in 2026 to over $9B by 2030.
However, FY2025 results (as of the year ended 2025-12-31) show EPS down 27.7% to $20.50 and revenue declining 1.27%, the stock still trades at a P/E of 29.1 — roughly 9% above the peer median of 26.7 — and insiders are net sellers of $82.4M over 24 months. Smart money has improved from a score of 0.0483 in Q1 2026 to 0.1148 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30, which is encouraging but not yet decisive.
What could go wrong
- Valuation still embeds growth. At a P/E of 29.1 versus a peer median of 26.7, CMI trades at an 8.9% premium despite FY2025 EPS declining 27.7% to $20.50; any disappointment in data-center execution could compress the multiple sharply.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold $82.4M in shares across 118 dispositions versus 65 acquisitions, with no cluster buying detected.
- Technical breakdown. As of 2026-08-24 the stock closed at $571.62, below both the 50-day MA of $657.91 and the 200-day MA of $595.75, with a negative MACD histogram of -5.49, indicating downtrend momentum has not reversed.
- Earnings quality concern. FY2024 net income of $3.946B appears inflated by non-operating gains; FY2025 net income fell to $2.843B, and the YoY decline of 27.95% raises questions about normalized earnings power.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative. Orin's read on CMI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CMI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $4.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $4.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
126 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 184 Form 4 filings, net −$82.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 20 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CMI
Orin answers questions about CMI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 26.5× | 15.9× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.5× | 10.7× | — |
| P/S | 2.07× | 1.31× | — |
| P/B | 5.6× | 3.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.30σ from its own mean).
13.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$788
$700 – $894 · +50% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 23 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.5× | 15.5× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| AMEAMETEK, Inc. | $57B | 36.1× | 24.2× | 36.6% | 20.0% | 15% |
| CSXCSX Corporation | $87B | 27.1× | 15.7× | 54.9% | 22.2% | 24% |
| FDXFedEx Corporation | $66B | 15.2× | 9.0× | 22.9% | 4.7% | 15% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $78B | 24.6× | 18.8× | 44.2% | 19.4% | 102% |
| NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation | $70B | 26.7× | 15.9× | 53.7% | 21.0% | 17% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $58B | 23.3× | 18.9× | 14.9% | 9.2% | 13% |
| ROPRoper Technologies, Inc. | $37B | 15.1× | 10.6× | 69.5% | 30.2% | 13% |
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | $64B | 24.6× | 11.7× | 37.1% | 15.7% | 29% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 7.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $305 | $635.56 · −52% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $184 | $635.56 · −71% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.