Cummins Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Cummins is a buy at $517.84 after a deep correction has pushed RSI to 29.69 — deeply oversold — just as fundamentals are inflecting positively.
Q2 2026 revenue grew 9.4% YoY to $9.457B, a sharp acceleration from FY2025's 1.3% revenue decline, supported by data-center power demand with an order book stretching through 2028 and management projecting data-center revenue rising from $5B to $9B by 2030. At 26.35x earnings (only 7% above the peer median of 24.63) and 2.06x sales (55% below the peer median of 4.59), the stock is attractively valued for a multi-year power-generation and truck-recovery cycle, even accounting for the recent Q2 EPS miss of $6.94 vs. $7.21 estimated.
What could go wrong
- Earnings miss breaks streak. Q2 2026 actual EPS of $6.94 missed the $7.21 estimate by 3.7%, snapping a long beat streak and raising questions about margin sustainability as production ramps.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders have net sold $82.8M of stock over 24 months with 119 dispositions vs. 65 acquisitions and no cluster buying, suggesting limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Technical downtrend intact. The stock trades at $517.84, well below both the 50-day MA of $591.58 and the 200-day MA of $603.30, indicating the downtrend has not yet reversed despite oversold conditions.
- Cyclical demand risk. Data-center power and North American truck demand are cyclical; any slowdown in hyperscaler capex or freight volumes could pressure the order book that currently extends through 2028.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals · peer comparison. Orin's read on CMI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 26.0% over twelve months, from $421.06 on 27 Oct 2025 to $530.61 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $727.59 on 25 Jun 2026; the last close is 27.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.3M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CMI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $8.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.4B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $4.3B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Northern Trust | $1.3B | 0.1% |
129 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 184 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$52.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 20 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CMI
Orin answers questions about CMI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.6×above usual | 15.9× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.72×above usual | 1.31× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8×above usual | 10.7× | — |
| P/B | 4.6×above usual | 3.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $740 (from $608 to $845) — 39% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$740
$608 – $845 · +39% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.6× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMICummins Inc. | $62B | 18.6× | 11.8× | 25.9% | 9.3% | 26% |
| CATCaterpillar Inc. | $328B | 30.6× | 21.1× | 33.9% | 14.5% | 54% |
| GEVGE Vernova Inc. | $238B | 25.4× | 25.2× | 20.2% | 23.0% | 83% |
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $55B | 19.8× | 14.9× | 14.4% | 9.9% | n/m |
| PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc. | $827M | 11.8× | 8.1× | 36.4% | 14.9% | 35% |
- PCAR: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- PCAR: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.6× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.6×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $285 a share — 46% below the $527.85 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $285 | 46% below $527.85 |
| Levered | $172 | 67% below $527.85 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.