CMS Energy Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
The oversold bounce that underpinned the prior buy call has largely played out: CMS rebounded from a 52-week low of $62.29 on October 1 to $68.70 by October 16, 2026, pushing RSI to 70.4 while the stock still sits below its 200-day moving average of $72.63.
Fundamentals are genuinely mixed — FY2025 revenue grew 13.6% to $8.539B with a 20.2% operating margin, but free cash flow was -$1.589B on $3.824B of capex, total debt climbed to $18.939B, and Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $0.39 fell well short of the $0.66 posted a year earlier. At 20.3x P/E versus a peer median of 20.7x, the valuation is fair, not cheap, leaving the October 27 Q3 2026 print as the next real catalyst.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and negative free cash flow. FY2025 free cash flow was -$1.589B with capex of $3.824B, and total debt rose to $18.939B from $16.590B in FY2024 — a rising balance-sheet burden for a regulated utility funding a heavy rate-base build.
- Deteriorating quarterly earnings trajectory. Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $0.39 was down sharply from $0.66 in Q2 2025, and Q2 revenue was essentially flat year over year (-0.49%), suggesting the FY2025 growth surge is not carrying into 2026.
- Persistent insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders recorded 9 dispositions against 2 acquisitions, netting -31,882 shares and roughly -$2.39M in value; the CFO's purchases were small (200 shares at $72.455 on 31 Jul).
- Overbought after a sharp rebound. RSI of 70.4 as of 16 Oct with the price still below the 200-day MA of $72.63 leaves the stock technically extended after a ~10% bounce off the October 1 low of $62.29.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: fundamentals, to 31 Dec 2025 · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · results, quarter to 30 Jun · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on CMS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 7.5% over twelve months, from $74.59 on 27 Oct 2025 to $69.00 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $79.94 on 9 Apr 2026; the last close is 13.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.6M, on 16 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CMS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $930.1M | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $666.1M | 0.0% |
| DZ BANK AG Deutsche Zentral Genossenschafts Bank, Frankfurt am Main | $603.0M | 0.5% |
| Invesco | $582.7M | 0.0% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $576.0M | 0.2% |
82 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 64 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CMS
Orin answers questions about CMS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 24.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 19.8×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 24.2×above usual | 19.8× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 2.41×near usual | 2.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.6×above usual | 11.8× | — |
| P/B | 1.6×below usual | 2.4× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $76.82 (from $69 to $84) — 11% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$76.82
$69 – $84 · +11% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 24.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMSCMS Energy Corporation | $22B | 24.2× | 13.6× | 77.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| CNPCenterPoint Energy, Inc. | $28B | 24.0× | 12.4× | 53.3% | 11.8% | 10% |
| DTEDTE Energy Company | $28B | 30.9× | 7.4× | 37.2% | 5.5% | 7% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EIXEdison International | $22B | 6.0× | 8.4× | 39.9% | 19.8% | 22% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EVRGEvergy, Inc. | $20B | 19.0× | 12.0× | 50.0% | 16.7% | 10% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
| WECWEC Energy Group, Inc. | $36B | 21.4× | 14.4× | 62.0% | 16.7% | 12% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 24.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now24.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $83 a share — 20% above the $69.09 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $83 | 20% above $69.09 |
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.