CMSNYSE·Regulated Electric

CMS Energy Corporation CMS

Market cap $19.8BP/E 18.7× trailingGross margin 69.7%Reports Thu 29 Oct, before the open

$63.19

+0.04 (+0.06%)live 09:40 ET

52-wk $62.93 – $80.36

Watch

Orin's take

0.62conviction · moderate

Refreshed 15 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Get emailed if this changes

CMS Energy's strategic pivot to exit non-utility renewable development via NorthStar and redirect capital toward regulated Michigan investments is the right move, but the near-term earnings profile remains pressured — Q2 2026 EPS fell 47.9% year-over-year and free cash flow deteriorated to -$1.59B against $3.82B in capex. Valuation is roughly fair at 21.0x P/E (a 5.2% discount to the peer median of 22.2x) but EV/EBITDA at 13.2x sits 4% above peers, limiting upside.

With total debt climbing to $18.9B, smart money scores fading from 0.050 to 0.011, and the stock trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, the risk/reward stays balanced until the capex-to-rate-base translation stabilizes earnings.

What could go wrong

Capex funding gap. FY2025 free cash flow of -$1.59B against $3.82B capex requires continued external financing; total debt already rose from $15.7B (2023) to $18.9B (2025), and rising rates could pressure the cost of that debt stack.
Earnings deterioration. Q2 2026 adjusted EPS dropped 47.9% YoY with revenues declining; if the full-year 2026 outlook is merely reaffirmed rather than improved, the market may question whether the heavy capex is translating into earnings growth.
Regulatory risk. The thesis depends on Michigan rate cases recovering the $3.8B annual capex; an unfavorable regulatory outcome would extend the FCF deficit and debt-build period.
Technical breakdown. Stock at $71.11 is below both MA50 ($73.71) and MA200 ($73.87) with negative MACD histogram; a sustained break below $68 could trigger further institutional selling.

What would change my mind

Rate case approval. Michigan PUC approves a constructive rate order that visibly closes the gap between $3.82B capex and $2.24B operating cash flow, enabling FCF improvementbullish

NorthStar exit execution. Clean divestiture or wind-down of NorthStar Clean Energy with minimal stranded costs, simplifying to a pure regulated utility and supporting re-rating toward peer P/Ebullish

2027 guidance disappointment. Newly introduced 2027 EPS guidance implies growth below the ~6% trajectory seen in 2023–2025 ($3.01 to $3.53), signaling the capex isn't converting to earningsbearish

Debt upgrade or downgrade. Credit rating action reflecting leverage from $18.9B debt against $9.1B equity; a downgrade would raise financing costs on the ongoing capex programbearish

Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-07-28 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative composite · smart money 13F composite. Orin's read on CMS; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

On file

All CMS filings

Form	Filed	What it says	Read
10-Q	28 Jul	CMS Energy Corporation reported net income available to common stockholders of $117 million for the three months ended June 30, 2026, a decrease from $198 million in the prior year period.	read
8-K	28 Jul	CMS Energy Corporation announced its second quarter 2026 results on July 28, 2026, via a news release furnished as Exhibit 99.1.	read
8-K	3 Jun	Rejji P. Hayes retired as executive vice president and chief financial officer of CMS Energy and Consumers Energy effective June 3, 2026. Srikanth Maddipati was appointed to…	read
8-K	13 May	CMS Energy launched an at-the-market equity program on May 13, 2026, under which it may sell up to $3 billion of common stock from time to time through 17 banks acting as agents…	read
8-K	13 May	CMS Energy shareholders on May 8, 2026 approved doubling authorized common shares to 700 million and granted shareholders the right to call a special meeting; the amendments were…	read
13G/A	12 May	—	on file
13G/A	4 May	—	on file
13G	29 Apr	—	on file

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow

Filer	Position	Of fund
Brasada Capital Management	$8.2B	1.5% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management	$1.5B	0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management	$1.5B	0.1% of fund
State Street	$1.4B	0.0% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &	$1.3B	0.1% of fund
Wellington Management Group Llp	$930.1M	0.2% of fund

80 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 64 Form 4 filings, net −$9.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about CMS

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about CMS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Utilities

Metric	Now	Own median	Sector
P/E	18.7×	19.6×	25.9×
EV/EBITDA	12.4×	12.3×	—
P/S	2.25×	2.46×	—
P/B	1.9×	2.4×	—

Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.06σ from its own mean).

What Wall Street published

30 firms · 2026-09-23

Consensus target

$80

$77 – $84 · +27% against today's price

How they rate it

16 buy or overweight
14 hold
0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.8× of 6 peers

Company	Market cap	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Gross	Net	ROE
CMSCMS Energy Corporation	$20B	18.7×	12.4×	69.7%	11.6%	11%
DTEDTE Energy Company	$26B	19.3×	12.5×	36.7%	8.1%	11%
EIXEdison International	$21B	5.5×	8.2×	39.9%	19.8%	22%
EVRGEvergy, Inc.	$18B	19.5×	12.3×	40.1%	15.3%	9%
FEFirstEnergy Corp.	$25B	23.3×	11.6×	53.4%	6.9%	9%
LNTAlliant Energy Corporation	$16B	20.1×	13.8×	42.0%	18.4%	11%
SOThe Southern Company	$96B	20.0×	12.0×	43.4%	15.4%	13%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

FY14 19.7×FY25 19.8×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities

FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since

Model	Fair value	Against	Computed
Standard DCF	$80	$73.64 · +8%	2026-06-10
Levered DCF	$-67	$73.64 · −191%	2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $63.19

52-week range$63 – $80

Analyst targets$77 – $84

Standard DCF$80 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $73.64

Levered DCF$-67 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $73.64

At own 5y-median P/E (20×)$66

At 5y P/E range (14–22×)$47 – $74

At sector P/E (26×)$88

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.