Centene Corporation CNC
Centene remains a hold. FY2025 revenue surged 19% to $194.8B and free cash flow of $4.3B confirms the $7.6B operating loss is largely non-cash, but the stock's 40% premium to its 200-day MA ($67.47 vs. $48.12) already discounts a return to profitability that has not yet been demonstrated in GAAP results.
Smart money is only modestly positive (score 0.095) and insider activity is dominated by grant-based acquisitions rather than open-market conviction buying, while the pending CFO transition adds execution uncertainty. The 0.17x P/S — 70% below the peer median of 0.57 — is attractive only if Centene proves FY2025's losses are truly transitory.
What could go wrong
- Structural margin compression. The $7.6B FY2025 operating loss versus $3.2B operating income in FY2024 could reflect persistent Medicaid rate inadequacy or rising medical cost ratios rather than one-time charges, which would invalidate the recovery thesis.
- Equity erosion. Stockholders' equity fell from $26.4B (FY2024) to $19.95B (FY2025) while total debt remained elevated at $18.8B, weakening the balance sheet if losses persist.
- CFO transition risk. Drew Asher's departure as CFO effective January 2027, with successor Chris Neczypor taking over, introduces execution risk during a critical turnaround period.
- Valuation already reflects recovery. Stock trades 40% above its 200-day MA and near overbought technicals; if FY2026 earnings disappoint, there is significant downside from current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2024. Orin's read on CNC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CNC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $1.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $854.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $853.8M | 0.1% of fund |
105 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 72 Form 4 filings, net −$17.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CNC
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 0.16× | 0.26× | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.6× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.58σ from its own mean).
-6.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$68
$39 – $80 · +10% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNCCentene Corporation | $31B | — | — | 16.1% | -2.6% | -24% |
| UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc. | $11B | 7.4× | 5.7× | 90.7% | 8.4% | 21% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $121 | $64.88 · +87% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $305 | $64.88 · +370% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.