Core & Main, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Core & Main trades at a discount to peers on every key metric — 17.2x P/E and 10.6x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 21.5x and 14.0x respectively (as of the latest composite) — but decelerating top-line growth and margin compression keep the stock in wait-and-see territory.
FY2025 revenue growth slowed to 2.8% from 11.0% the prior year, operating margin contracted to 9.5% from 11.7% in FY2022, and the stock at $41.99 (as of 16 Oct) sits below both its 50-day ($42.97) and 200-day ($48.57) moving averages. Consistent EPS beats — Q2 FY2026 actual $0.94 versus $0.909 estimated — $604M in FY2025 free cash flow, and management's maintained FY2026 guidance of $7.8–7.9B revenue and $950–980M EBITDA provide a fundamental floor, but net insider dispositions of roughly 955K shares over 24 months and a Zacks Strong Sell designation on September 25, 2026 argue for patience until growth visibly reaccelerates.
What could go wrong
- Growth stagnation. Q1 FY2026 revenue was essentially flat at $1.91B (-0.05% YoY) and Q2 FY2026 grew only 2.5% YoY; if this deceleration persists, the discount-to-peers thesis loses its catalyst.
- Margin compression. Operating margin has declined from 11.7% in FY2022 to 9.5% in FY2025, eroding earnings quality even as absolute net income grows.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net disposed approximately 955K shares worth $54.7M, with only 2 acquisition transactions against 34 dispositions.
- Technical breakdown. Stock trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages and hit a 52-week low near $40 in September 2026, suggesting continued institutional distribution pressure.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates, 9 Sep. Orin's read on CNM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 21.5% over twelve months, from $53.98 on 27 Oct 2025 to $42.35 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $59.09 on 22 Jan 2026; the last close is 28.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 7.1M, on 17 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CNM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $885.8M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $553.6M | 0.1% |
| FMR | $432.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $411.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $398.1M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $291.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $285.1M | 0.0% |
| Select Equity Group | $281.8M | 1.4% |
| D. E. Shaw | $220.9M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $172.6M | 0.0% |
76 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 256 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$54.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CNM
Orin answers questions about CNM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.5×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.4×below usual | 23.5× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 1.01×below usual | 1.08× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.7×near usual | 10.4× | — |
| P/B | 3.9×below usual | 5.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $55.17 (from $48 to $61) — 30% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$55.17
$48 – $61 · +30% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNMCore & Main, Inc. | $8B | 17.4× | 10.7× | 27.0% | 6.0% | 23% |
| AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $11B | 26.0× | 17.6× | 30.4% | 8.4% | 23% |
| DXPEDXP Enterprises, Inc. | $2B | 21.0× | 8.2× | 31.6% | 4.4% | 19% |
| GICGlobal Industrial Co | $2B | 19.9× | 13.9× | 36.4% | 6.1% | 27% |
| MSMMSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $7B | 29.7× | 17.0× | 40.9% | 5.6% | 16% |
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $4B | 17.2× | 10.8× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 20% |
| NWPXNWPX Infrastructure, Inc. | $962M | 19.7× | 12.2× | 20.9% | 8.5% | 12% |
| POOLPool Corporation | $7B | 17.9× | 13.8× | 29.4% | 7.3% | 33% |
| WCCWESCO International, Inc. | $17B | 23.1× | 14.1× | 21.4% | 2.8% | 14% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $42 a share — 1% above the $42.03 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $42 | 1% above $42.03 |
| Levered | $93 | 121% above $42.03 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.