Core & Main, Inc. CNM
Core & Main trades at a deep discount to peers — 17.7x P/E versus a 26.6x peer median and 10.8x EV/EBITDA versus 15.6x — but the fundamental trajectory is deteriorating, with FY2025 operating margin compressing to 9.52% from 11.65% in FY2022 and Q1 FY2026 revenue essentially flat year-over-year at $1.91B. The stock is technically oversold (RSI 32.6 as of 2026-09-01) and below both its 50-day ($45.15) and 200-day ($49.96) moving averages, reflecting the market's concern about decelerating growth.
Free cash flow of $604M and improving smart money sentiment (score rising to -0.0217 as of Q2 2026 from -0.0569 in Q4 2024) provide downside support, but net insider dispositions of ~476K shares over 24 months and $2.44B in total debt warrant patience until the pending Q2 FY2026 results confirm whether revenue growth reaccelerates.
What could go wrong
- Revenue deceleration persists. Q1 FY2026 revenue was flat YoY at $1.91B after Q4 FY2025 declined 6.9%; if easier comps do not drive reacceleration, the valuation discount may be justified.
- Operating margin erosion. Operating margin fell from 11.65% in FY2022 to 9.52% in FY2025 despite revenue growth from $6.65B to $7.65B, suggesting structural cost or pricing pressure.
- Technical breakdown deepens. Stock at $42.07 is below both MA50 ($45.15) and MA200 ($49.96) with bearish MACD histogram of -0.30; further downside could trigger institutional selling.
- Leverage and insider selling. Total debt of $2.44B against equity of $2.0B, combined with net insider dispositions of ~476K shares over 24 months, signals limited conviction from those closest to the business.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · peer_relative · derived_metrics · quarterly_results. Orin's read on CNM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CNM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Capital World Investors | $553.6M | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $432.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $411.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $398.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $291.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $285.1M | 0.0% of fund |
75 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 255 Form 4 filings, net −$26.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.5× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.04× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.9× | — | — |
2.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$55
$48 – $61 · +30% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNMCore & Main, Inc. | $8B | 17.5× | 10.9× | 27.0% | 6.0% | 23% |
| AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $12B | 30.1× | 23.0× | 30.3% | 8.3% | 22% |
| AOSA. O. Smith Corporation | $8B | 16.1× | 11.6× | 38.6% | 13.1% | 27% |
| ARMKAramark | $15B | 38.2× | 15.0× | 6.6% | 1.9% | 12% |
| DCIDonaldson Company, Inc. | $10B | 22.1× | 17.9× | 34.6% | 11.7% | 28% |
| FLSFlowserve Corporation | $10B | 26.8× | 15.7× | 35.1% | 8.0% | 17% |
| GNRCGenerac Holdings Inc. | $12B | 45.2× | 23.2× | 39.5% | 5.8% | 10% |
| POOLPool Corporation | $6B | 15.3× | 12.8× | 29.6% | 7.4% | 32% |
| SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $14B | 22.5× | 12.8× | 31.7% | 4.1% | 7% |
| WTSWatts Water Technologies, Inc. | $12B | 31.2× | 19.3× | 48.8% | 14.3% | 19% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 34.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.