Capital One Financial Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Capital One's Q3 2026 earnings beat of $6.69 actual EPS versus $5.50 estimated (a 21.6% surprise) extends a pattern of decisive beats — the prior quarter delivered $5.81 versus $4.79 estimated — confirming that the Discover integration is translating into earnings power after the deep Q2 2025 loss of $4.28B.
The stock trades at 12.47x earnings and just 4.96x EV/EBITDA, a 57.7% discount to the peer median of 11.71x, while revenue grew 28.4% in FY2025 and quarterly revenue is running near $19.9B. Technicals are stabilizing with RSI at 48.5 and a positive MACD histogram of +1.01 as of 19 Oct, and the stock has reclaimed its 200-day MA at $203.09, making the risk/reward attractive for a cyclical credit name with improving fundamentals.
What could go wrong
- Consumer credit deterioration. News coverage ahead of Q3 2026 flagged weak consumer loan demand and higher provisions; if credit losses accelerate, the earnings recovery from the FY2025 net margin of just 3.5% could stall.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months insiders executed zero acquisitions and 82 dispositions for net selling of roughly $97.8M in value, with fresh sales in October 2026 at $195.86 — no insider has bought a single share.
- Margin compression from integration. FY2025 operating margin collapsed to 3.3% from 11.0% in FY2024 and 24.1% in FY2022, reflecting Discover-related costs; if synergies underperform, margins may stay depressed.
- Technical overhead resistance. The stock at $199.83 remains below its 50-day MA of $207.70 as of 19 Oct; failure to reclaim that level could signal further downside despite improving fundamentals.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 20 Oct · earnings vs estimates, 21 Jul · Q2 2026 results · Q2 2025 results. Orin's read on COF; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 9.0% over twelve months, from $223.49 on 27 Oct 2025 to $203.44 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $257.94 on 6 Jan 2026; the last close is 21.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 15.1M, on 12 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All COF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $10.2B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.2B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $5.6B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $3.6B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.9B | 0.2% |
| Franklin Resources | $2.7B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Harris Associates | $2.3B | 3.1% |
| FMR | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $2.0B | 0.2% |
159 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 255 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$97.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 28 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COF
Orin answers questions about COF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 12.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.0× | — | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.58×above usual | 1.27× | — |
| P/B | 1.1×above usual | 1.1× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 5.2× to 60.1× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/S: for a bank, sales here are gross revenue — interest income plus non-interest revenue, before the interest it pays — so its P/S reads lower than it would on the net revenue in its filings.
- EV/EBITDA: not used for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $253 (from $229 to $280) — 24% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$253
$229 – $280 · +24% against the last close
- 16 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 12.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 11.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COFCapital One Financial Corporation | $125B | 12.0× | n/a | n/a | 13.7% | 10% |
| AXPAmerican Express Company | $211B | 17.6× | n/a | n/a | 14.3% | 36% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $351B | 11.9× | n/a | n/a | 16.5% | 11% |
| CCitigroup Inc. | $206B | 11.8× | n/a | n/a | 12.5% | 9% |
| CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc. | $28B | 13.1× | n/a | n/a | 19.5% | 9% |
| JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co. | $893B | 14.1× | n/a | n/a | 21.9% | 18% |
| KEYKeyCorp | $23B | 11.6× | n/a | n/a | 20.1% | 11% |
| PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $91B | 12.1× | n/a | n/a | 22.1% | 13% |
| SYFSynchrony Financial | $24B | 7.7× | n/a | n/a | 17.6% | 20% |
| USBU.S. Bancorp | $93B | 11.6× | n/a | n/a | 19.0% | 13% |
| WFCWells Fargo & Company | $248B | 11.5× | n/a | n/a | 17.6% | 13% |
- COF, AXP, BAC, C, CFG, JPM, KEY, PNC, SYF, USB, WFC: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- COF, AXP, BAC, C, CFG, JPM, KEY, PNC, SYF, USB, WFC: EV/EBITDA is not used (n/a) for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 12.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now12.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.