Capital One Financial Corporation COF
Capital One's Discover integration trough is behind it — Q2 2026 net income of $3.02B and EPS of $4.73 represent a sharp recovery from the Q2 2025 net loss of $4.28B, with revenue growing 21% YoY to $19.86B. At 13.3x earnings versus a peer median of 20.3x, the stock trades at a 35% discount despite improving quarterly profits, and technicals have cooled to neutral (RSI 48.9, price near the 50-day MA at $210.53) after the prior overbought conditions that justified a hold.
Smart money flows turned positive in Q2 2026 (score 0.0493) for the first time in a year, and the most recent earnings surprise of +21.3% suggests estimates remain too low.
What could go wrong
- Credit quality deterioration. Credit card balances 90 days late have nearly doubled since 2022 per recent reporting; rising delinquencies could pressure provisions and reverse the margin recovery seen in recent quarters.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders have net sold $134M in shares with 158 dispositions versus 91 acquisitions; August 2026 sales continued at $218–226 per share.
- Margin compression risk. FY2025 operating margin collapsed to 3.3% from 11.0% in FY2024 due to integration costs; if margins do not recover toward prior levels, the valuation discount may be warranted.
- Discover integration execution. Revenue surged 28.4% in FY2025 but net income fell 48.4%; the integration must deliver synergies without further credit or operational setbacks.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 2026 · quarterly_results Q2 2025 · quarterly_results Q2 2026 revenue_yoy_pct · peer_relative. Orin's read on COF; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All COF filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $5.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $3.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.9B | 0.2% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $2.7B | 0.6% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
156 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 252 Form 4 filings, net −$135.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 25 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COF
Orin answers questions about COF from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.1× | 10.3× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.0× | 6.1× | — |
| P/S | 1.53× | 1.27× | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | 1.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.30σ from its own mean).
-13.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $26.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$253
$229 – $280 · +30% against today's price
- 36 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COFCapital One Financial Corporation | $120B | 12.1× | 5.0× | 66.2% | 13.4% | 9% |
| BACBank of America Corporation | $397B | 12.7× | 24.1× | 59.3% | 17.2% | 11% |
| HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc. | $110B | 53.1× | 54.1× | 81.5% | 42.0% | 23% |
| PGRThe Progressive Corporation | $118B | 10.2× | 8.2× | 26.9% | 12.8% | 35% |
| SPGIS&P Global Inc. | $120B | 24.7× | 16.0× | 70.9% | 30.5% | 15% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 35.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $573 | $179.52 · +219% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $1003 | $179.52 · +459% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.