Coherent, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Coherent's fundamentals are genuinely strong and accelerating — FY2026 revenue of $7.12B grew 22.5% YoY (as of the fiscal year ended 30 Jun), Q4 revenue surged 33.7% YoY to $2.05B, and EPS swung to $4.12 from -$0.52 — but the ~22% pullback to $232.02 (as of 19 Oct) still leaves COHR at 53.3x PE versus a peer median of 12.0x, a 345% premium.
Deeply negative FCF of -$1.03B on $1.11B of capex and $1.13B of net insider selling over 24 months with zero insider acquisitions temper enthusiasm despite the oversold RSI of 33.2 and a potential tactical bottom ahead of the Q1 FY2027 earnings release on November 4.
What could go wrong
- AI capex cycle deceleration. If hyperscaler data-center spending slows or AI infrastructure funding concerns intensify — as flagged in recent optical-sector selloff news — COHR's 22.5% revenue growth could decelerate sharply, undermining the premium multiple.
- Persistent FCF burn. FY2026 FCF of -$1.03B on $1.11B capex means the company is consuming cash to build capacity; if capex doesn't convert to revenue quickly, balance-sheet pressure builds with $3.54B in total debt.
- Valuation compression. At 53.3x PE versus a peer median of 12.0x, any earnings disappointment or guidance cut could trigger further multiple contraction beyond the already ~22% drawdown from prior levels.
- Insider selling signal. Net insider dispositions of $1.13B over 24 months with zero acquisitions suggest insiders see limited upside at current prices, a persistent negative governance signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · Q4 FY26 results · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · technicals, 19 Oct. Orin's read on COHR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 74.7% over twelve months, from $134.99 on 27 Oct 2025 to $235.79 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $426.89 on 2 Jun 2026; the last close is 44.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 51.5M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All COHR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.0B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $4.3B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.0B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% |
| Nvidia | $3.1B | 4.8% |
| Invesco | $2.9B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.2B | 0.1% |
115 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 166 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.1B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 24 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COHR
Orin answers questions about COHR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 33.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — below its usual level (61.1×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.5×below usual | 61.1× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 4.23× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.1× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.9× | — | — |
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 1.36× to 9.82× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 7.4× to 46.4× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 1.0× to 6.4× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $382 (from $230 to $455) — 62% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$382
$230 – $455 · +62% against the last close
- 13 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 33.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 93.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHRCoherent, Inc. | $33B | 33.5× | 21.1× | 38.2% | 12.2% | 9% |
| IPGPIPG Photonics Corporation | $3B | 113× | 26.0× | 38.4% | 2.6% | 1% |
| LASRnLIGHT, Inc. | $2B | lost money | n/m | 32.0% | −4.0% | −3% |
| LITELumentum Holdings Inc. | $78B | lost money | — | 41.7% | −230.1% | −300% |
| LPTHLightPath Technologies, Inc. | $586M | lost money | — | 36.0% | −28.6% | −22% |
| MKSIMKS Inc. | $12B | 19.8× | 12.6× | 44.7% | 12.6% | 20% |
| NOVTNovanta Inc. | $6B | 93.9× | 33.8× | 42.5% | 6.0% | 5% |
- LASR, LITE, LPTH: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- LASR: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 33.5× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now33.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.