Coherent, Inc. COHR
Coherent's FY2026 results (as of the fiscal year ended 2026-06-30) show a dramatic profitability inflection—EPS swung from -$0.52 to $4.12 and operating margin expanded to 12.67% from 9.45%—driven by 22.5% revenue growth and surging datacenter demand (fiscal Q4 datacenter sales up 59% to $1.62B per Zacks). However, the stock trades at 64.2x PE versus a peer median of 30.7x (109% premium) while free cash flow is deeply negative at -$1.03B on $1.11B of capex, and insiders have net-sold $474M over 24 months including the CFO's recent sales at $324 and $306.68.
The pullback from June highs near $426 to $279.20 improves the risk-reward, but the combination of premium valuation, negative FCF, and persistent insider selling keeps this a hold pending evidence that capex normalizes and FCF turns positive.
What could go wrong
- Capex-driven cash burn. FY2026 free cash flow was -$1.03B with capex of $1.11B; if AI infrastructure demand slows before this capacity generates returns, the cash burn could pressure the balance sheet given $3.54B in total debt.
- Valuation compression. At 64.2x PE and 7.67x PS—109% and 121% above peer medians respectively—any deceleration in revenue growth or margin expansion could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net-sold $474M over 24 months with 82 dispositions versus 59 acquisitions; the CEO sold $11M at $426.89 in June 2026 and the CFO sold at progressively lower prices ($372.96, $306.68, $324).
- Smart money deceleration. Smart money score declined from 0.1809 in Q1 2026 to 0.1515 in Q2 2026, with fund count dropping from 70 to 67, suggesting some institutional conviction is fading near highs.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · derived_metrics and FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-06-30. Orin's read on COHR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All COHR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $4.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Nvidia | $3.1B | 4.8% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.9B | 0.2% of fund |
113 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 163 Form 4 filings, net −$490.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 24 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COHR
Orin answers questions about COHR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 69.1× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 39.2× | 11.8× | — |
| P/S | 8.26× | 2.34× | — |
| P/B | 5.4× | 1.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.19σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$390
$230 – $455 · +33% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHRCoherent, Inc. | $59B | 69.1× | 39.2× | 37.5% | 11.3% | 8% |
| ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $24B | — | — | -14.0% | -536.7% | -35% |
| FLEXFlex Ltd. | $41B | 43.4× | 23.4× | 9.5% | 3.3% | 19% |
| FNFabrinet | $14B | 30.3× | 25.3× | 12.0% | 10.2% | 21% |
| FTVFortive Corporation | $17B | 32.7× | 18.8× | 63.2% | 12.4% | 9% |
| JBLJabil Inc. | $32B | 38.1× | 16.4× | 9.2% | 2.6% | 62% |
| SATSEchoStar Corporation | $25B | — | — | 29.5% | -38.7% | -70% |
| TDYTeledyne Technologies Incorporated | $29B | 29.9× | 19.2× | 39.0% | 15.3% | 9% |
| TRMBTrimble Inc. | $14B | — | 57.3× | 68.4% | -2.8% | -2% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 111.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $12 | $352.77 · −97% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $23 | $352.77 · −93% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.