Coinbase Global, Inc. COIN
Coinbase is a hold after a punishing 2026 drawdown that has brought the stock to $150.55, well below both the 50-day ($157.68) and 200-day ($201.96) moving averages, pricing in much of the fundamental deterioration already visible in FY2025 results. Revenue still grew 9.4% to $7.18B and free cash flow remained robust at $2.43B, but operating margin compressed from 35.2% to 20.0%, net income fell 51.1% to $1.26B, and total debt surged to $7.83B from $4.63B, signaling that the cost of growth is rising fast.
Persistent insider selling—$672M net over 24 months across 467 dispositions—and a slightly negative smart money score of -0.0327 as of Q2 2026 confirm that informed participants remain cautious, while the P/S of 7.18 is now below the peer median of 8.29, limiting further multiple compression. The derivatives, tokenization, and AI-payments narratives offer credible optionality, but until earnings stabilize and margin compression reverses, there is no clear catalyst to justify adding risk.
What could go wrong
- Margin erosion accelerates. FY2025 operating margin already fell to 20.0% from 35.2% in FY2024; further compression would threaten the FCF base of $2.43B and undermine the valuation floor.
- Debt burden grows. Total debt rose to $7.83B in FY2025 from $4.63B in FY2024 with no corresponding earnings growth, increasing balance-sheet fragility if crypto markets weaken further.
- Insider selling persists. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately 1.84M shares for $672M across 467 dispositions, with selling continuing into August 2026 at prices near $142–$148.
- Crypto cycle downturn. Coinbase's revenue and profitability remain highly correlated to crypto trading volumes and asset prices; a sustained downturn would pressure both top-line growth and margins simultaneously.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics FY2025 · Technicals as of 2026-08-17. Orin's read on COIN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All COIN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $946.4M | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $555.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $407.9M | 0.0% of fund |
105 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 660 Form 4 filings, net −$690.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 19 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COIN
Orin answers questions about COIN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 9.45× | 8.19× | — |
| P/B | 4.0× | 6.0× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.94σ from its own mean).
8.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$205
$95 – $330 · +4% against today's price
- 21 buy or overweight
- 14 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc. | $52B | — | — | 79.0% | -17.8% | -7% |
| AONAon plc | $60B | 15.4× | 11.8× | 83.1% | 22.3% | 43% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $97B | 22.9× | 18.4× | 81.9% | 63.1% | 16% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88B | 22.0× | 15.4× | 73.4% | 30.0% | 14% |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $82B | 30.0× | 22.0× | 71.9% | 34.3% | 80% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $22 | $156.41 · −86% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $61 | $156.41 · −61% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.