Coinbase Global, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Coinbase remains a sell at $179.39 as of the close on 9 Oct, with the fundamental deterioration that drove the prior sell call at $195.11 continuing unabated.
Three consecutive quarterly net losses — Q4 2025 EPS of -$2.49, Q1 2026 EPS of -$1.49, and Q2 2026 EPS of -$1.36 — each missed consensus badly, while revenue contracted 21.6%, 30.5%, and 18.5% YoY respectively through those same quarters, confirming no earnings inflection is underway. The stock trades at a P/S of 7.53, roughly in line with the peer median of 8.44, yet carries a negative TTM P/E of -48.6, meaning investors pay a market-average revenue multiple for a company losing money. Persistent insider selling — 365 dispositions and zero acquisitions over 24 months for net -$613M, including CFO Haas and director Andreessen selling into October 2026 — and a smart money score that has slipped from 0.06 as of Q3 2025 to -0.00 as of Q2 2026 signal that informed participants continue to exit.
What could go wrong
- Crypto-price rebound. A sharp rally in Bitcoin or broader crypto markets could lift trading volumes and sentiment, driving COIN higher independent of fundamental improvement, as occurred in prior cycles.
- USDC/stablecoin revenue scaling. Record USDC balances and expanding stablecoin adoption could build a recurring revenue stream that stabilizes earnings even if trading volumes remain weak.
- Regulatory clarity tailwind. Favorable crypto legislation or SEC rulemaking could improve the operating environment and sentiment for crypto-exposed equities.
- Debt load and balance sheet risk. Total debt rose to $7.83B in FY2025 from $4.63B in FY2024; if crypto markets remain suppressed, servicing this debt alongside operating losses could pressure the equity.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · peer comparison · insider trades · 13F holdings. Orin's read on COIN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 55.4% over twelve months, from $361.43 on 27 Oct 2025 to $161.09 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $361.43 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 55.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 32.4M, on 13 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All COIN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $946.4M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $555.8M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $407.9M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $371.9M | 0.0% |
| Clear Street Group | $338.3M | 0.9% |
| Invesco | $293.2M | 0.0% |
108 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 662 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$613.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 19 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COIN
Orin answers questions about COIN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 6.76× its yearly sales.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 20.4× |
| P/S | 6.76× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.2×below usual | 6.0× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 14.4× to 435× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 2.46× to 13.2× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $213 (from $110 to $330) — 32% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$213
$110 – $330 · +32% against the last close
- 17 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COINCoinbase Global, Inc. | $43B | lost money | — | 76.0% | −15.7% | −7% |
| AONAon plc | $64B | 16.5× | 14.0× | 83.1% | 22.2% | 40% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $106B | 23.9× | 16.1× | 84.3% | 63.1% | 16% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $87B | 21.9× | 15.9× | 79.0% | 32.3% | 14% |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $82B | 28.8× | 22.8× | 73.1% | 35.3% | 86% |
- CME: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $21 a share — 87% below the $160.04 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $21 | 87% below $160.04 |
| Levered | $58 | 64% below $160.04 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.