ConocoPhillips COP
ConocoPhillips trades at a ~31% PE discount to peers (17.2x vs 24.9x median) and a ~16% discount on EV/EBITDA (6.4x vs 7.6x median), despite 2025 revenue returning to growth at +7.5% YoY and free cash flow nearly doubling to $16.8B as capex was slashed to $3.0B from $12.1B. The stock's RSI has cooled to 61.3 from prior overbought readings while remaining in a clear uptrend above both the 50-day ($117.47) and 200-day ($111.60) moving averages, offering a better entry than the prior hold call.
Three years of EPS decline from $14.57 (2022) to $6.35 (2025) and operating margin compression from 23.4% to 19.6% are already reflected in the discounted valuation, while the FCF yield and debt reduction ($25.3B to $23.4B) underpin downside support.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Operating margin fell from 23.4% (2024) to 19.6% (2025) and gross margin from 29.4% to 24.6%; further compression would pressure earnings despite revenue growth.
- Capex normalization erodes FCF. The FCF surge to $16.8B was driven by capex dropping to $3.0B from $12.1B; if capital spending returns to historical levels, FCF could revert sharply.
- Commodity price downturn. As a pure E&P, COP is exposed to oil and gas price cycles; a sustained decline in crude or natural gas prices would hit revenue and margins simultaneously.
- Insider and smart-money selling. Insiders net sold ~$150M over 24 months, and smart money score turned negative at -0.23 as of Q2 2026 from +0.35 in Q1 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite, as of 2026-08-28 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 vs FY2024 · derived_metrics, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2024 and FY2025. Orin's read on COP; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All COP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.3B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $6.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $4.7B | 0.5% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $4.3B | 0.6% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Fmr | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
138 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 123 Form 4 filings, net −$149.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COP
Orin answers questions about COP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.9× | 12.7× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2× | 5.6× | — |
| P/S | 2.46× | 2.08× | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | 2.1× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.27σ from its own mean).
-2.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $16.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$152
$128 – $189 · +19% against today's price
- 39 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COPConocoPhillips | $156B | 16.9× | 6.2× | 27.7% | 14.7% | 14% |
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $76B | 11.0× | 5.6× | 70.2% | 25.7% | 22% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | $52B | 36.3× | 9.0× | 44.5% | 9.3% | 4% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 28.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $478 | $121.31 · +294% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $519 | $121.31 · +328% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.