ConocoPhillips
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ConocoPhillips is benefiting from a 77% crude price surge in 2026, with Q2 2026 revenue jumping 36.8% YoY to $19.16B and EPS of $3.23 beating estimates by 11.7%, but the stock has already run hard — trading at $145.24, above both its 50-day ($132.32) and 200-day ($118.98) moving averages with an RSI of 71.2 signaling overbought conditions.
While COP trades at a 13.4% PE discount and 27.6% EV/EBITDA discount to peers, multi-year margin compression (operating margin fell from 32.4% in 2022 to 19.2% in FY2025) and persistent insider net selling of approximately $144.8M over 24 months temper enthusiasm. The improving smart money score (from -0.135 to -0.095 as of Q2 2026) and rising fund count (68) suggest institutional positioning is stabilizing, but the stock needs Q3 2026 results to confirm the margin recovery before justifying a more aggressive stance.
What could go wrong
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 71.2 as of 19 Oct with the stock at $145.24, well above its 50-day MA of $132.32 and 200-day MA of $118.98, increasing vulnerability to a pullback on any negative catalyst.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of approximately 1.27M shares worth $144.8M over 24 months, with recent open-market sales by executives at $134–135 per share in August 2026.
- Oil price reversal risk. The thesis relies on sustained high crude prices (up 77% in 2026 per Zacks); any de-escalation of Middle East tensions could reverse the commodity tailwind quickly.
- Margin compression trend. FY2025 operating margin of 19.2% is well below the 32.4% level of FY2022; while Q2 2026 shows improvement, a full-year confirmation of margin recovery is still pending.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · technicals, 19 Oct · peer comparison · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on COP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 66.8% over twelve months, from $88.69 on 27 Oct 2025 to $147.96 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $151.37 on 26 Oct 2026; the last close is 2.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 32.0M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All COP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $9.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.3B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $6.8B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $4.7B | 0.5% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $4.3B | 0.6% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.0B | 0.2% |
| FMR | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.0B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.9B | 0.1% |
141 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 123 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$144.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about COP
Orin answers questions about COP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 14.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 12.7×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.2×above usual | 12.7× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.40×above usual | 2.09× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8×above usual | 5.3× | — |
| P/B | 2.5×above usual | 2.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $157 (from $130 to $189) — 6% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$157
$130 – $189 · +6% against the last close
- 16 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 14.2× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (CVX 21.8×, XOM 23.2×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COPConocoPhillips | $163B | 14.2× | 5.8× | 34.7% | 17.1% | 18% |
| CVXChevron Corporation | $451B | 21.8× | 8.6× | 31.0% | 9.9% | 11% |
| XOMExxon Mobil Corporation | $740B | 23.2× | 10.7× | 25.1% | 9.1% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 14.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now14.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $344 a share — 132% above the $148.03 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $344 | 132% above $148.03 |
| Levered | $372 | 151% above $148.03 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.