Orin
CORNYSE·Medical - Distribution

Cencora, Inc. COR

Market cap $59.4BP/E 22.9× trailingGross margin 3.7%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$305.25
−4.62 (−1.49%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $244.82 – $377.54
Watch
Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v8. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Cencora's Q3 FY2026 earnings (reported August 2026) showed double-digit adjusted operating income growth and a raised full-year outlook, building on FY2025 revenue of $321.3B (up 9.3% YoY) and $3.2B in free cash flow, but the balance sheet remains a concern with total debt at $10.75B against just $1.5B in equity as of the fiscal year ended 2025-09-30. The stock trades at an attractive 23.5x earnings — a 58% discount to the peer median — and has reclaimed its 50-day MA at $301, yet remains below its 200-day MA at $323.77 with a negative MACD histogram, while 24-month net insider selling of $83.2M tempers enthusiasm.

The improving operational trajectory and raised guidance warrant staying engaged, but elevated leverage and unresolved technical overhead argue for patience until debt stabilizes and the stock reclaims its 200-day.

What could go wrong

  • Balance sheet leverage. Total debt surged to $10.75B in FY2025 from $6.65B in FY2024 against only $1.5B in stockholders' equity, creating fragility if pharmaceutical distribution margins compress or rates stay elevated.
  • EPS below prior peak. FY2025 diluted EPS of $7.96 still trails FY2023's $8.53, meaning earnings have not fully recovered despite revenue growing from $262.2B to $321.3B over that span.
  • Technical overhead. Stock at $317.10 sits below its 200-day MA of $323.77 with a negative MACD histogram, suggesting the downtrend from prior highs is not fully reversed.
  • Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold $83.2M in shares across 194 transactions (101 dispositions vs 93 acquisitions), with no cluster buying detected.

What would change my mind

Debt reduction. Total debt declines meaningfully below $10B in the next reported quarter, indicating deleveraging is underwaybullish
200-day MA reclaim. Stock closes decisively above $323.77 (200-day MA) on above-average volumebullish
Margin compression. Gross margin falls below 3.0% or operating margin below 1.0% in upcoming quarterly results, signaling pricing pressurebearish
Guidance cut. Company lowers full-year adjusted earnings outlook after having raised it at Q3 FY2026bearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · peer_relative data. Orin's read on COR; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

FormFiledWhat it saysRead
8-K14 AugLorence H. Kim, M.D. resigned from the Board of Directors of Cencora, Inc. effective August 13, 2026. The resignation is due to his appointment as Chief Financial Officer of…read
8-K12 AugCencora, Inc. disclosed that beginning July 1, 2026, certain Walgreens volume previously serviced by the Company started moving outside Cencora. This event was fully contemplated…read
10-Q5 AugCencora, Inc. reported revenue of $84.75 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 5.1% year-over-year, and $249.04 billion for the nine months ended June…read
8-K5 AugCencora, Inc. increased its multi-currency revolving credit facility to $7.0 billion from $5.5 billion and extended the maturity date to July 2031. The company also amended its…read
8-K5 AugCencora, Inc. reported fiscal 2026 third quarter revenue of $84.8 billion, a 5.1% increase year-over-year. GAAP diluted EPS was $3.94, and adjusted diluted EPS was $4.48, up…read
8-K15 JunCencora, Inc. announced the retirement of Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer Silvana Battaglia, effective July 12, 2026. Ms. Battaglia will serve in an…read
8-K29 MayCencora, Inc. appointed Eva C. Boratto as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective June 29, 2026, triggering Item 5.02. Ms. Boratto will receive an annual…read
10-Q6 MayCencora’s headline number is a 128% surge in diluted EPS to $8.40 for the March 2026 quarter versus $3.68 a year ago, driven by a $1.086 billion remeasurement gain on the February…read

Largest holders · 13F

Money flow

No 13F positioning on file.

Insiders, last 24 months: 197 Form 4 filings, net −$87.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about COR

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about COR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Healthcare
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E22.9×21.1×26.4×
EV/EBITDA13.5×12.0×—
P/S0.18×0.14×—
P/B19.6×——

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.18σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

6.9%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

46 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$358

$330 – $430 · +17% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 33 buy or overweight
  • 12 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 54.0× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CORCencora, Inc.$60B22.9×13.5×3.7%0.8%106%
BDXBecton, Dickinson and Company$49B54.0×16.8×46.1%4.5%4%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 57.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 63.4×FY25 39.0×

What its sector has traded at

Healthcare
FY14 6.5×FY26 28.5×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$689$282.53 · +144%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$697$282.53 · +147%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $305.25
52-week range$245 – $378
Analyst targets$330 – $430
Standard DCF$689 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $282.53
Levered DCF$697 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $282.53
At own 5y-median P/E (21×)$285
At 5y P/E range (16–39×)$216 – $527
At sector P/E (26×)$357

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.