Orin
CPRTNasdaq·Auto - Dealerships

Copart, Inc. CPRT

Market cap $25.7BP/E 18.0× trailingGross margin 44.7%
$27.80
−0.24 (−0.85%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $26.81 – $45.89
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Orin's take
0.68conviction · moderate
Refreshed 30 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Copart's FY2025 fundamentals remain best-in-class — $4.65B revenue at +9.7% YoY growth, 36.5% operating margins, $1.23B free cash flow, and a near-debt-free balance sheet ($104M debt vs $9.19B equity) — yet the stock at $32.99 still trades below its 200-day MA of $34.66, suggesting the recovery from the ~60% drawdown has room to run. Insider activity is decisively bullish: the President and CFO each made large open-market purchases at $31.61 on August 16, 2026 ($15.8M and $6.3M respectively), and the 24-month net insider accumulation is +368,969 shares worth $9.1M.

At 20.4x earnings the P/E is only a 16.7% premium to the peer median of 17.5x, a reasonable price for a compounder with 33.4% net margins and double-digit EPS growth, while smart-money flows have improved from -0.0465 in mid-2025 to near-neutral at 0.0018 as of Q2 2026.

What could go wrong

  • Elevated P/S multiple. At 6.58x sales, CPRT trades 209% above the peer median of 2.13x, leaving little room for any revenue growth disappointment.
  • IAA competition and insurance headwinds. Recent coverage cites near-term pressure from insurance affordability and IAA competition, which could compress volumes or pricing power in salvage auctions.
  • Technical overhead resistance. The stock remains below its 200-day MA of $34.66 as of 2026-08-28, and a failure to reclaim that level could signal the downtrend is intact.
  • Smart-money fund count declining. Institutional fund holders fell from 62 to 59 between Q1 and Q2 2026, and the SM score of 0.0018 is barely positive, indicating institutional conviction is lukewarm.

What would change my mind

Reclaim 200-day MA. Stock closes above $34.66 on above-average volume, confirming trend reversalbullish
Revenue growth deceleration. Next quarterly revenue growth falls below 5% YoY, signaling loss of market share or demand softnessbearish
Operating margin compression. Operating margin drops below 35% for two consecutive quarters, indicating competitive pricing pressure from IAAbearish
Further insider selling. CEO or senior officers begin net selling open-market shares after the recent accumulation wavebearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · Insider transactions 2026-08-16 · Insider summary. Orin's read on CPRT; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.6B0.0% of fund
State Street$1.1B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.1B0.0% of fund
Invesco$930.8M0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$769.7M0.0% of fund
Bank of New York Mellon$488.7M0.1% of fund

92 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 90 Form 4 filings, net $9.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Consumer Cyclical
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E18.0×34.1×79.6×
EV/EBITDA11.7×25.1×—
P/S5.56×10.89×—
P/B2.9×6.7×—

Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−3.71σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

8.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

22 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$37

$25 – $45 · +34% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 12 buy or overweight
  • 9 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 16.1× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CPRTCopart, Inc.$26B18.0×11.7×44.7%31.8%16%
CCLCarnival Corporation & plc$30B9.4×7.5×34.4%11.2%24%
CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.$41B29.4×20.3×24.1%11.4%53%
DHID.R. Horton, Inc.$39B13.3×10.8×22.6%9.2%13%
EBAYeBay Inc.$48B21.8×17.4×72.5%18.5%48%
FFord Motor Company$50B——10.8%-3.9%-19%
LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.$25B15.0×8.0×50.9%12.8%142%
YUMYum! Brands, Inc.$38B17.1×17.2×45.8%25.4%-30%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 11.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 20.5×FY26 18.7×

What its sector has traded at

Consumer Cyclical
FY14 393.1×FY26 81.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$26$31.41 · −16%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$30$31.41 · −3%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $27.80
52-week range$27 – $46
Analyst targets$25 – $45
Standard DCF$26 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $31.41
Levered DCF$30 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $31.41
At own 5y-median P/E (34×)$53
At 5y P/E range (28–37×)$44 – $58
At sector P/E (80×)$124

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.