Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Credo's growth trajectory remains exceptional — FY2026 revenue of $1.34B grew 205.7% YoY at a 68.0% gross margin and 33.3% operating margin, generating $407.0M in free cash flow with only $25.4M in debt, and Q1 FY2027 revenue of $479.0M is still up 114.7% YoY.
However, at $218.64 the stock trades at 74.12x PE and 25.63x PS — a 76% and 212% premium to peer medians respectively — pricing in continued triple-digit growth that is already decelerating from 206% to 115% YoY. Persistent insider dispositions (1,068 sales vs 22 acquisitions, net -$780.5M over 24 months as of the most recent filings) and a smart money score near zero (-0.02 as of 30 Jun) temper enthusiasm despite improving technicals (price above both the 50-day MA of $208.06 and 200-day MA of $177.37, with a positive MACD histogram of 6.10 as of 2 Oct). The AI connectivity thesis is genuine, but the valuation leaves no room for execution missteps.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 74.12x PE and 25.63x PS — 76% and 212% above peer medians — any growth deceleration or guidance miss could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Insider distribution. Over 24 months, insiders executed 1,068 dispositions versus 22 acquisitions for net -$780.5M; the COO sold 100,000 shares for ~$20.6M in late September 2026 alone.
- Growth deceleration. Revenue YoY growth has already slowed from 205.7% in FY2026 to 114.7% in Q1 FY2027; a further sharp deceleration could undermine the premium multiple.
- Customer concentration. As a connectivity chipmaker serving AI data centers, Credo's revenue is vulnerable to any slowdown or pause in hyperscaler AI capex spending.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · Q1 FY27 results · peer comparison · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on CRDO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 8.0% over twelve months, from $154.96 on 27 Oct 2025 to $167.43 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $302.52 on 22 Jun 2026; the last close is 44.7% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 38.6M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CRDO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| Point72 Asset Management | $1.7B | 1.8% |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $876.9M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $723.3M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $593.6M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $543.3M | 0.2% |
| FMR | $480.8M | 0.0% |
109 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 1164 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$769.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 44 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CRDO
Orin answers questions about CRDO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 56.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — below its usual level (104×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 56.8×below usual | 104× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 19.8×above usual | 14.8× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 52.6×below usual | 76.7× | — |
| P/B | 11.4×above usual | 5.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $267 (from $206 to $310) — 60% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$267
$206 – $310 · +60% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 56.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 77.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd | $31B | 56.8× | 52.6× | 67.1% | 33.8% | 27% |
| AIPArteris, Inc. | $783M | lost money | n/m | 86.2% | −44.8% | n/m |
| ALABAstera Labs, Inc. Common Stock | $50B | 132× | 149× | 75.1% | 30.7% | 25% |
| ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $178B | 192× | 135× | 95.4% | 17.1% | 11% |
| CIENCiena Corporation | $50B | 76.0× | 49.0× | 44.1% | 10.9% | 23% |
| LITELumentum Holdings Inc. | $78B | lost money | — | 41.7% | −230.1% | −300% |
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. | $213B | 79.9× | 45.1× | 51.4% | 27.9% | 16% |
| MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 43.1× | 32.5× | 58.0% | 25.3% | 22% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $167B | 12.2× | 15.2× | 53.1% | 31.6% | 50% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $13B | 87.1× | 104× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
- AIP, LITE: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AIP: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- AIP: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 56.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now56.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
Neither version of the cash-flow model gives a usable value.
- Standard: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
- Levered: comes out below zero, so it is not shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.