Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd CRDO
Credo's Q1 FY2027 (ended 2026-08-01) delivered record revenue of $479.0M, up 114.7% YoY, with reported EPS of $1.20 beating the $1.17 consensus — extending an eight-quarter beat streak. FY2026 fundamentals are exceptional: $1.34B revenue at 68.04% gross margin and 33.33% operating margin, generating $407.0M in free cash flow with minimal $25.4M debt.
However, at $206.63 the stock trades at 78.87x PE and 28.86x PS — a 74% and 272% premium to peer medians — while 1,025 insider dispositions versus 19 acquisitions (net -$725.2M over 24 months), a negative MACD histogram of -3.41, and price below the 50-day MA of $236.40 all signal distribution. The AI connectivity growth story is genuine, but the valuation leaves no margin for error and insider behavior warrants patience.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 78.87x PE and 28.86x PS — 74% and 272% above peer medians respectively — any deceleration in revenue growth or margin contraction could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Persistent insider selling. 1,025 dispositions versus 19 acquisitions with net selling of $725.2M over 24 months, including recent CTO and COO sales in July 2026, suggest insiders view the stock as fully valued.
- Hyperscaler concentration. Revenue is heavily tied to AI infrastructure demand from a small number of hyperscale customers; any pause or slowdown in data-center capex would directly impact growth.
- Technical deterioration. Price at $206.63 is below the 50-day MA of $236.40 with a negative MACD histogram of -3.41 and RSI of 40.9, indicating waning momentum despite the recent earnings beat.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Quarterly results, period ended 2026-08-01 · Earnings surprises, period ended 2026-09-01 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-05-02 · FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-05-02. Orin's read on CRDO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CRDO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Point72 Asset Management, L.P | $1.7B | 1.8% of fund |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $876.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $723.3M | 0.1% of fund |
106 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 1060 Form 4 filings, net −$738.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 49 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CRDO
Orin answers questions about CRDO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 65.7× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 62.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 22.72× | — | — |
| P/B | 13.2× | — | — |
28.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$271
$206 – $350 · +40% against today's price
- 14 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd | $36B | 65.7× | 62.7× | 67.1% | 33.8% | 27% |
| ALABAstera Labs, Inc. Common Stock | $62B | 166.1× | 184.7× | 75.1% | 30.7% | 25% |
| CIENCiena Corporation | $50B | 77.0× | 49.6× | 44.1% | 10.9% | 23% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $18B | 5.3× | 6.2× | 37.1% | 27.2% | 23% |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $83B | 31.0× | 17.1× | 36.0% | 6.6% | 11% |
| KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc. | $60B | 48.7× | 35.3× | 64.7% | 19.1% | 20% |
| PSTGEverpure, Inc | $28B | 126.3× | 84.8× | 70.2% | 5.7% | 21% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $27B | 11.4× | 8.5× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
| SNDKSandisk Corporation | $269B | 23.4× | 20.2× | 71.5% | 56.5% | 93% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 65.0% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.