Salesforce, Inc. CRM
Salesforce's operating fundamentals are genuinely improving—FY2026 operating margin reached 21.47% with FCF margin of 34.68% and revenue growth of 9.58%—and the Q2 earnings beat plus raised full-year guidance to $46.4B validates the AI reacceleration narrative. However, the stock's 23% one-day surge to $256 has pushed RSI to 80.8, an extremely overbought reading, while smart money has deteriorated from +0.2568 in Q4 2025 to -0.1043 as of Q2 2026.
With $2.53 of $5.90 in adjusted quarterly EPS attributed to unrealized Anthropic investment gains of $2.7B, the quality of the earnings beat is mixed, making the post-surge entry less compelling despite a 22.9x PE only modestly above the 22.5x peer median.
What could go wrong
- Overbought correction. RSI at 80.8 after a 23% one-day surge to $256, with the stock trading well above the 50-day MA of $180.89 and 200-day MA of $200.32.
- Earnings quality. $2.53 of $5.90 in adjusted quarterly EPS came from unrealized Anthropic investment gains of $2.7B, not operating performance.
- Smart money outflow. Institutional smart money score has deteriorated from +0.2568 in Q4 2025 to -0.1043 as of Q2 2026.
- AI monetization uncertainty. Agentforce and Claudeforce AI momentum is early-stage; sustained organic revenue reacceleration above the 9.58% FY2026 pace is unproven.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2026 · derived_metrics FY2026 · technicals · news (Motley Fool, 2026-08-27). Orin's read on CRM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CRM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.2B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $7.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.7B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Harris Associates L P | $2.5B | 3.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
144 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 572 Form 4 filings, net $83.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CRM
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.6× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.4× | 30.1× | — |
| P/S | 4.43× | 7.85× | — |
| P/B | 5.1× | 3.8× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−0.68σ from its own mean).
2.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $14.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$272
$215 – $325 · +13% against today's price
- 75 buy or overweight
- 21 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $195B | 21.6× | 14.4× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| APPAppLovin Corporation | $106B | 24.1× | 19.3× | 88.5% | 64.6% | 193% |
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | $419B | 31.7× | 22.1× | 64.5% | 21.0% | 27% |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $219B | 20.3× | 17.1× | 58.4% | 15.5% | 34% |
| INTUIntuit Inc. | $78B | 17.4× | 11.4× | 80.9% | 21.3% | 23% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.21T | 23.9× | 17.4× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $146B | 87.4× | 43.4× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $141B | 15.0× | 18.9× | 42.3% | 17.3% | 36% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 10.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $264 | $173.44 · +52% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $333 | $173.44 · +92% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.