Salesforce, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Salesforce remains a buy at $240.70 (as of 16 Oct) with a compelling combination of accelerating fundamentals and discounted valuation.
FY2027 quarterly revenue growth has reaccelerated to 13.3% and 10.8% YoY in Q1 and Q2 respectively, surpassing FY2026's full-year 9.6%, while operating margin expanded to 21.5% and FCF margin reached 34.7% — yet CRM trades at just 21.88x earnings versus the peer median of 88.18x (ServiceNow), a 75% discount. The most recent quarterly EPS beat of 80.4% ($5.90 vs. $3.27 estimated, period ended 26 Aug) signals that AI-driven product momentum is translating into outsized profitability, and the stock holds above both its 50-day ($230.12) and 200-day ($199.05) moving averages with a positive MACD histogram of 0.73.
What could go wrong
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score has declined sharply from 0.21 (30 Jun 2025) to 0.02 (30 Jun), suggesting institutional conviction is waning even as fund count rose from 63 to 68.
- AI financing contagion. Enterprise software stocks including CRM fell ~4% on 16 Oct amid spreading AI financing worries; a broader risk-off in AI-linked names could pressure multiples further.
- Net insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net disposed of 119,083 shares worth $26.7M, with recent September 2026 transactions dominated by tax-related dispositions (code F) rather than open-market buys.
- Competitive growth gap. ServiceNow is reportedly expanding revenue at a faster YoY rate than Salesforce, and its far higher peer multiples (88.18x PE) could either reflect a widening competitive moat or a re-rating risk if CRM's growth decelerates again.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 FY27 results · FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison · earnings vs estimates, 26 Aug. Orin's read on CRM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 5.7% over twelve months, from $255.47 on 27 Oct 2025 to $240.89 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $266.23 on 29 Dec 2025; the last close is 9.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 57.9M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CRM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $11.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $8.2B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $7.1B | 0.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | $3.7B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $3.1B | 0.2% |
| Harris Associates | $2.5B | 3.4% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.8B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.6B | 0.1% |
146 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 590 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$26.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CRM
Orin answers questions about CRM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.9× | — | 39.5× |
| P/S | 4.51×below usual | 7.85× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.8×below usual | 29.7× | — |
| P/B | 5.1×above usual | 3.8× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 27.0× to 800× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $274 (from $215 to $325) — 14% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$274
$215 – $325 · +14% against the last close
- 28 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (NOW 96.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $198B | 21.9× | 13.8× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $160B | 96.1× | 47.6× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $214 a share — 11% below the $241.79 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $214 | 11% below $241.79 |
| Levered | $282 | 17% above $241.79 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.