CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
CrowdStrike's fundamentals are improving — Q2 FY2027 revenue (quarter ended 31 Jul) grew 25.8% YoY to $1.47B, reaccelerating from FY2026's 21.7% full-year growth, while FCF margin held strong at 27.2% on $1.31B of free cash flow for the fiscal year ended 31 Jan.
However, the stock at $227.39 (as of 16 Oct) still trades at a P/S of 43.15 versus a peer median of 20.43 — a 111% premium — and FY2026 operating losses widened to -$293.3M (operating margin -6.1%) from -$120.4M the prior year. Relentless insider selling (net -$837.2M over 24 months with zero acquisitions, including CEO Kurtz selling on 14 Oct), a low smart money score of 0.07 as of 30 Jun, and bearish technicals (price below the 50-day MA of $233.17, negative MACD histogram of -5.68) argue for patience despite the pullback from prior levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/S of 43.15 is 111% above the peer median of 20.43, and EV/EBITDA of 523.37 is 365% above the peer median of 112.55; any growth deceleration could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent operating losses. FY2026 operating margin was -6.1%, worsening from -3.1% in FY2025, despite 21.7% revenue growth; the path to sustained GAAP profitability remains unclear.
- Insider selling signal. Over 24 months, insiders executed 1,920 dispositions and zero acquisitions, netting -$837.2M in value; CEO Kurtz continued selling as recently as 14 Oct.
- Competitive disruption from AI entrants. Reports that OpenAI is in preliminary talks to acquire Trail of Bits (news dated 14 Oct) signal potential new AI-native cybersecurity competition, while Zacks noted PANW gaining an edge with strong platform growth.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Jul · fundamentals, year to 31 Jan · peer comparison · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on CRWD; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 102% over twelve months, from $132.43 on 27 Oct 2025 to $268.02 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $278.86 on 6 Oct 2026; the last close is 3.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 60.3M, on 23 Feb 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CRWD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $16.7B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.4B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $8.8B | 0.3% |
| Invesco | $6.4B | 0.5% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $6.1B | 0.3% |
| FMR | $6.0B | 0.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.0B | 0.3% |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.6B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.5B | 0.2% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $3.3B | 0.3% |
149 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 2106 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$857.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 50 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CRWD
Orin answers questions about CRWD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that its P/E says little (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 50.9× its yearly sales — above its usual level (23.2×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | n/m | 791× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 50.9×above usual | 23.2× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | n/m | 319× | — |
| P/B | 53.4×above usual | 29.7× | — |
- P/E: not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful (n/m) — its operating profit before depreciation over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $245 (from $132 to $425) — 9% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$245
$132 – $425 · −9% against the last close
- 38 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Its own P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little. Only 1 of the 2 companies it is compared to have a P/E that says something (FTNT 64.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $274B | n/m | n/m | 75.2% | 1.1% | 1% |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $136B | 64.7× | 47.6× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $329B | n/m | 213× | 70.4% | 2.7% | 2% |
- CRWD, PANW: P/E is not meaningful (n/m) — its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- CRWD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its operating profit before depreciation over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Its P/E now is not shown, and it has no fiscal year with a P/E to draw since its history starts.
- Nownot shown
- Now: not shown. Its profit over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $6 a share — 98% below the $268.01 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $6 | 98% below $268.01 |
| Levered | $27 | 90% below $268.01 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.