Orin
CRWDNasdaq·Software - Infrastructure

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CRWD

Market cap $267.1BP/E 7457.1× trailingGross margin 75.2%
$262.49
+12.43 (+4.97%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $85.68 – $263.19
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 28 Aug · take v9. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

CrowdStrike rallied to $218.40 after reporting its 'best quarter ever' on 2026-08-26, beating Q2 expectations and raising guidance as AI-driven 'agentic threats' fuel cybersecurity demand. However, FY2026 annual data (ended 2026-01-31) shows revenue growth decelerating to 21.71% from 29.39% the prior year while operating losses widened to -$293.3M (operating margin -6.1%) from -$120.4M (operating margin -3.05%), signaling deteriorating operating leverage despite $4.81B in revenue.

At a P/S of 43.02 — roughly 244% above the peer median of 12.51 — and an EV/EBITDA of 667.44 versus a peer median of 31.28, the stock commands an extreme valuation premium that leaves no room for execution missteps. Strong FCF generation ($1.31B at a 27.23% margin) and improving smart money flows (score 0.1664 as of 2026-06-30) support the business, but persistent insider selling ($452M net over 24 months, including CEO Kurtz selling on 2026-08-26) and the widening operating losses argue for patience at current levels.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. P/S of 43.02 is 244% above the peer median of 12.51; any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp multiple contraction given the extreme premium.
  • Operating leverage deterioration. FY2026 operating margin of -6.1% worsened from -3.05% in FY2025, indicating rising costs are outpacing revenue growth despite $4.81B in revenue.
  • Persistent insider selling. Net $452M in insider dispositions over the past 24 months with 1,528 sales versus 71 acquisitions, including CEO Kurtz selling on 2026-08-26.
  • Growth deceleration. Revenue growth has declined from 54.4% in FY2023 to 21.71% in FY2026; continued deceleration would pressure the premium valuation.

What would change my mind

Operating margin inflection. CRWD reports a quarter with positive or meaningfully improving operating margin, indicating operating leverage is returning.bullish
Revenue growth re-acceleration. Quarterly revenue growth re-accelerates above 25% YoY, suggesting AI-driven demand is expanding the TAM faster than expected.bullish
Valuation compression to peer levels. P/S multiple compresses toward the peer median of 12.51 without a corresponding deterioration in fundamentals, creating a better entry point.bullish
FCF margin erosion. FCF margin falls below 20% for two consecutive quarters, indicating the cash generation story is weakening.bearish

Where this comes from: FMP FY2026 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2026 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2026 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative. Orin's read on CRWD; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$12.4B0.3% of fund
State Street$8.8B0.3% of fund
Invesco$6.4B0.5% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$6.1B0.3% of fund
Fmr$6.0B0.3% of fund
Morgan Stanley$5.0B0.3% of fund

146 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 1850 Form 4 filings, net −$583.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 44 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/S49.53×23.17×
P/B52.3×29.7×

Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+4.14σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

40.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

66 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$234

$132$425 · −11% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 50 buy or overweight
  • 14 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 45.5× of 7 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.$267B75.2%1.1%1%
ACNAccenture plc$112B14.5×8.7×32.0%10.7%25%
ADBEAdobe Inc.$96B13.4×9.6×89.1%28.0%63%
ADIAnalog Devices, Inc.$188B45.5×29.8×65.8%29.8%12%
CRWVCoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock$47B36.3×67.4%-25.4%-45%
FTNTFortinet, Inc.$131B62.5×44.5×80.4%28.2%188%
KLACKLA Corporation$245B51.0×43.4×61.3%35.6%85%
PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc.$321B70.4%2.7%2%
SNPSSynopsys, Inc.$79B71.7×24.4×72.4%11.4%4%
TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated$249B41.2×28.5×58.3%31.1%36%

The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$23$652.85 · −96%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$112$652.85 · −83%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $262.49
52-week range$86 – $263
Analyst targets$132 – $425
Standard DCF$23 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $652.85
Levered DCF$112 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $652.85
At own 5y-median P/E (-175×)$-6
At 5y P/E range (-5056–781×)$-178 – $28
At sector P/E (53×)$2

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.