CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. CRWD
CrowdStrike rallied to $218.40 after reporting its 'best quarter ever' on 2026-08-26, beating Q2 expectations and raising guidance as AI-driven 'agentic threats' fuel cybersecurity demand. However, FY2026 annual data (ended 2026-01-31) shows revenue growth decelerating to 21.71% from 29.39% the prior year while operating losses widened to -$293.3M (operating margin -6.1%) from -$120.4M (operating margin -3.05%), signaling deteriorating operating leverage despite $4.81B in revenue.
At a P/S of 43.02 — roughly 244% above the peer median of 12.51 — and an EV/EBITDA of 667.44 versus a peer median of 31.28, the stock commands an extreme valuation premium that leaves no room for execution missteps. Strong FCF generation ($1.31B at a 27.23% margin) and improving smart money flows (score 0.1664 as of 2026-06-30) support the business, but persistent insider selling ($452M net over 24 months, including CEO Kurtz selling on 2026-08-26) and the widening operating losses argue for patience at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. P/S of 43.02 is 244% above the peer median of 12.51; any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp multiple contraction given the extreme premium.
- Operating leverage deterioration. FY2026 operating margin of -6.1% worsened from -3.05% in FY2025, indicating rising costs are outpacing revenue growth despite $4.81B in revenue.
- Persistent insider selling. Net $452M in insider dispositions over the past 24 months with 1,528 sales versus 71 acquisitions, including CEO Kurtz selling on 2026-08-26.
- Growth deceleration. Revenue growth has declined from 54.4% in FY2023 to 21.71% in FY2026; continued deceleration would pressure the premium valuation.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2026 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2026 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2026 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative. Orin's read on CRWD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CRWD filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 27 Aug | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 26 Aug | CrowdStrike reported record Q2 FY2027 results (quarter ended July 31, 2026) via 8-K Items 2.02 and 9.01, furnishing the earnings press release as Exhibit 99.1. | read |
| 8-K | 22 Jun | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 4 Jun | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 3 Jun | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | read |
| DEFA14A | 5 May | — | on file |
| DEF 14A | 5 May | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $8.8B | 0.3% of fund |
| Invesco | $6.4B | 0.5% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $6.1B | 0.3% of fund |
| Fmr | $6.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.0B | 0.3% of fund |
146 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 1850 Form 4 filings, net −$583.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 44 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CRWD
Orin answers questions about CRWD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 49.53× | 23.17× | — |
| P/B | 52.3× | 29.7× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+4.14σ from its own mean).
40.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$234
$132 – $425 · −11% against today's price
- 50 buy or overweight
- 14 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | $267B | — | — | 75.2% | 1.1% | 1% |
| ACNAccenture plc | $112B | 14.5× | 8.7× | 32.0% | 10.7% | 25% |
| ADBEAdobe Inc. | $96B | 13.4× | 9.6× | 89.1% | 28.0% | 63% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $188B | 45.5× | 29.8× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| CRWVCoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock | $47B | — | 36.3× | 67.4% | -25.4% | -45% |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $131B | 62.5× | 44.5× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $245B | 51.0× | 43.4× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| PANWPalo Alto Networks, Inc. | $321B | — | — | 70.4% | 2.7% | 2% |
| SNPSSynopsys, Inc. | $79B | 71.7× | 24.4× | 72.4% | 11.4% | 4% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $249B | 41.2× | 28.5× | 58.3% | 31.1% | 36% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $23 | $652.85 · −96% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $112 | $652.85 · −83% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.