Orin
CRWVNasdaq·Software - Infrastructure

CoreWeave, Inc. CRWV

Market cap $47.8BP/E —no earnings to divide byGross margin 67.4%
$87.60
−2.53 (−2.81%)live 11:30 ET
52-wk $60.55 – $153.20
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Orin's take
0.55conviction · moderate
Refreshed 29 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

CoreWeave's FY2025 revenue of $5.1B and a $104.2B backlog plus $25B in additional customer commitments underscore extraordinary demand for its AI infrastructure platform, but the operating margin deteriorated from positive 16.9% in FY2024 to negative 0.9% in FY2025 despite revenue more than doubling, signaling that scale is not yet translating into operating leverage. With $29.8B of total debt against just $3.3B of equity and free cash flow of negative $7.25B, the balance sheet remains the central risk, while net insider selling of 52.8M shares over 24 months and a smart money score that declined from 0.37 to 0.19 quarter-over-quarter temper enthusiasm.

The stock trades below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, and while the P/S of 6.05 is modestly below the peer median of 6.83, the EV/EBITDA of 35.76 carries a 13% premium to peers—wait for evidence of margin stabilization and FCF inflection before adding risk.

What could go wrong

  • Debt servicing capacity. Total debt of $29.8B against $3.3B of equity with negative FCF of $7.25B creates extreme leverage; any rise in financing costs or covenant pressure could constrain growth investment.
  • Operating margin deterioration. Operating margin turned negative at -0.9% in FY2025 from +16.9% in FY2024 despite revenue growth, raising questions about unit economics at scale.
  • Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 52.8M shares worth $6.44B over 24 months, with the CFO continuing to sell Class A shares as recently as August 25, 2026.
  • AI capex cycle dependency. Revenue depends on sustained hyperscaler and enterprise AI spending; any slowdown in GPU demand or customer concentration risk could impair backlog conversion.

What would change my mind

FCF inflection. Quarterly free cash flow narrows meaningfully toward breakeven or turns positive, indicating CapEx is generating returnsbullish
Operating margin recovery. Operating margin returns to positive territory in a reported quarter, demonstrating operating leverage on incremental revenuebullish
Debt refinancing or covenant concern. Credit spread widening, covenant breach, or被迫 equity raise at dilutive prices signals balance sheet stressbearish
Backlog erosion or customer loss. Material cancellation or reduction in the $104.2B backlog or loss of a major hyperscaler customerbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · FMP derived_metrics, FY2024–FY2025 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · Seeking Alpha, published 2026-08-26. Orin's read on CRWV; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Nvidia$4.7B7.4% of fund
Goldman Sachs Group$1.8B0.2% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.7B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$1.6B0.0% of fund
Invesco$1.2B0.1% of fund
Alyeska Investment Group, L.P$1.1B2.8% of fund

108 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 2634 Form 4 filings, net −$6.6B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 35 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
EV/EBITDA37.0×——
P/S6.48×——
P/B9.9×——

What Wall Street published

30 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$139

$74 – $192 · +59% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 19 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 50.5× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CRWVCoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock$49B—37.0×67.4%-25.4%-45%
ADSKAutodesk, Inc.$45B27.2×19.2×91.2%21.1%53%
FTNTFortinet, Inc.$131B62.5×44.5×80.4%28.2%188%
MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.$76B35.4×22.2×50.0%17.4%86%
SNPSSynopsys, Inc.$81B73.8×25.1×72.4%11.4%4%
WDAYWorkday, Inc.$50B38.6×31.9×75.8%12.3%17%
XYZBlock, Inc.$46B134.6×38.4×46.4%1.4%2%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $87.60
52-week range$61 – $153
Analyst targets$74 – $192

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.