Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO
Cisco's FY2026 results (fiscal year ended 2026-07-25) validate the AI-infrastructure growth narrative with accelerating quarterly revenue growth from 7.53% in Q1 to 17.58% in Q4, full-year revenue growth of 11.77%, and operating margin expansion from 20.76% to 24.27% driving 30.59% EPS growth to $3.33 — a sharp recovery from FY2024–FY2025 stagnation. However, at $109.74 the stock trades at 32.66x trailing P/E, a 39.2% premium to the peer median of 23.46x, while smart money has turned slightly negative at -0.0148 as of Q2 2026 from 0.088 in Q1, and insiders persistently sold with $200.4M in net dispositions over 24 months including recent August 2026 sells by the CEO, CFO, and multiple EVPs.
The fundamental momentum is genuine, but the valuation premium and deteriorating ownership signals warrant patience rather than chasing the pullback.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium contraction. At 32.66x trailing P/E — 39.2% above the peer median of 23.46x — any deceleration in revenue growth or margin expansion could trigger multiple compression, especially with the stock already below its 50-day MA of $114.93.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold $200.4M over 24 months across 169 dispositions with zero cluster buying; recent August 2026 transactions show the CEO, CFO, and four EVPs all selling at $111–$114 per share.
- Smart money deterioration. The smart money score declined from 0.088 as of Q1 2026 to -0.0148 as of Q2 2026, suggesting institutional positioning has shifted from accumulation to slight distribution.
- FCF margin pressure. FCF margin compressed from 23.45% in FY2025 to 20.16% in FY2026 as CapEx rose to $1.41B from $905M, despite revenue growing 11.77%; continued CapEx escalation could constrain shareholder returns.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2026 and FY2025 · quarterly_results FY2026 · peer_relative · smart_money points. Orin's read on CSCO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CSCO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $28.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| State Street | $23.2B | 0.7% of fund |
| Invesco | $16.2B | 1.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $14.0B | 0.6% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $11.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $9.4B | 0.5% of fund |
189 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 226 Form 4 filings, net −$201.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 26 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CSCO
Orin answers questions about CSCO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.7× | 18.8× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.1× | 13.8× | — |
| P/S | 6.62× | 3.74× | — |
| P/B | 8.4× | 4.8× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.93σ from its own mean).
14.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $12.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$131
$110 – $150 · +23% against today's price
- 38 buy or overweight
- 35 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCOCisco Systems, Inc. | $419B | 31.7× | 22.1× | 64.5% | 21.0% | 27% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $377B | 40.6× | 33.1× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ANETArista Networks, Inc. | $256B | 63.4× | 49.7× | 63.0% | 38.4% | 31% |
| CRMSalesforce, Inc. | $195B | 21.6× | 14.4× | 77.3% | 22.0% | 20% |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $219B | 20.3× | 17.1× | 58.4% | 15.5% | 34% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $384B | 53.1× | 44.0× | 50.5% | 31.3% | 67% |
| MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc. | $76B | 35.9× | 22.4× | 50.0% | 17.4% | 86% |
| MUMicron Technology, Inc. | $1.21T | 23.9× | 17.4× | 72.6% | 55.9% | 71% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $207B | 22.5× | 16.2× | 54.2% | 21.0% | 37% |
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | $141B | 15.0× | 18.9× | 42.3% | 17.3% | 36% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 32.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $50 | $118.85 · −58% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $54 | $118.85 · −54% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.