Orin
CSGPNasdaq·Real Estate - Services

CoStar Group, Inc. CSGP

Market cap $11.4BP/E 153.8× trailingGross margin 76.5%Reports Tue 27 Oct, after the close
$28.24
−0.02 (−0.07%)live 09:30 ET
52-wk $25.89 – $85.24
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 3 Sep · take v9. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

CoStar Group's operational inflection is becoming credible — Q2 2026 operating income of $76M marks a sharp improvement from the -$27.2M operating loss in Q2 2025, and the company has now beaten EPS estimates in eight consecutive quarters, most recently delivering $0.32 versus the $0.2858 consensus. Revenue growth remains robust at 18.4% YoY in Q2 2026, and CEO Andrew Florance's $2.49M open-market purchase of 83,300 shares at $29.89 on August 4 signals confidence from the top.

However, the stock trades at 174x earnings versus CBRE's 33x, the 200-day moving average sits at $44.28 — well above the $31.98 close — and FY2025 operating margin remains negative at -2.2%, meaning the market is pricing in a recovery that is still in early innings. Hold pending evidence that operating leverage can sustainably compound.

What could go wrong

  • Extreme valuation premium. P/E of 174x is 429% above the peer median of 33x; any deceleration in revenue growth or margin recovery could trigger a sharp de-rating.
  • Gross margin compression. Gross margin declined from 80.0% in FY2023 to 75.2% in FY2025, indicating that marketplace expansion is diluting the core data/analytics economics.
  • Stock below 200-day MA. Last close of $31.98 is 28% below the 200-day moving average of $44.28, signaling a downtrend that has not yet reversed despite recent stabilization above the 50-day MA of $30.19.
  • Acquisition integration risk. The $800M cash acquisition of Zonda completed August 2026 adds integration risk and capital pressure on top of already elevated debt of $1.14B as of FY2025.

What would change my mind

Operating margin expansion. Q3 2026 operating income exceeds $76M and operating margin approaches high-single digits, confirming the leverage trajectorybullish
Revenue growth deceleration. Quarterly revenue YoY growth falls below 15%, suggesting marketplace investments are not converting to durable top-line accelerationbearish
Reclaim of 200-day MA. Stock closes above $44.28 on sustained volume, confirming trend reversal and reducing technical downside riskbullish
Smart money outflows. 13F composite for Q3 2026 shows net institutional selling or smart money score turns meaningfully negative below -0.05bearish

Where this comes from: quarterly_results · earnings_surprises · quarterly_results · insider transactions. Orin's read on CSGP; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$1.1B0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$755.7M0.0% of fund
Bamco /Ny/$612.5M0.9% of fund
State Street$521.4M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$343.3M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$239.2M0.1% of fund

93 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 79 Form 4 filings, net −$151K. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about CSGP

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Real Estate
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E153.8×56.8×
EV/EBITDA27.1×80.3×
P/S3.22×14.03×
P/B1.4×4.5×

Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.48σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

45.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

27 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$36

$26$44 · +29% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 16 buy or overweight
  • 9 hold
  • 2 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 31.1× of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CSGPCoStar Group, Inc.$11B153.8×27.1×76.5%2.1%1%
CBRECBRE Group, Inc.$39B31.1×17.9×17.7%3.0%15%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 395.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 122.4×FY24 210.6×

What its sector has traded at

Real Estate
FY14 44.0×FY26 52.3×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$16$34.62 · −54%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$40$34.62 · +14%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $28.24
52-week range$26 – $86
Analyst targets$26 – $44
Standard DCF$16 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $34.62
Levered DCF$40 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $34.62
At own 5y-median P/E (106×)$19
At 5y P/E range (83–4004×)$15 – $735
At sector P/E (57×)$10

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.