Orin
CSLNYSE·Construction Materials

Carlisle Companies Incorporated CSL

Market cap $13.1BP/E 18.5× trailingGross margin 35.3%Reports Wed 4 Nov, after the close
$323.96
−4.59 (−1.40%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $293.43 – $432.91
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Orin's take
0.55conviction · moderate
Refreshed 31 Aug · take v5. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Q2 2026 results show genuine operational recovery at Carlisle—revenue grew 8% YoY to $1.57B and normalized EPS rose 12% to $7.03—but FY2025 financials remain a material overhang: net income fell 43.5% to $740.7M, EPS dropped from $27.90 to $17.12, and total debt rose to $2.88B from $1.99B while stockholders' equity declined to $1.80B from $2.46B. The pullback to $346.58 has improved relative value (P/E 20.35x vs 19.47x peer median; EV/EBITDA 13.32x below the 13.71x median), and Dividend King status with a $1.2B buyback commitment supports shareholder returns.

However, the stock trades below both the 50-day ($358.85) and 200-day ($350.75) moving averages with a bearish MACD, and rising raw-material and freight costs continue to pressure margins, leaving the risk/reward balanced.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 35.71% from 37.73% and operating margin to 19.92% from 22.85%; rising input costs cited in recent news could further compress margins.
  • Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $2.88B from $1.99B while stockholders' equity declined to $1.80B from $2.46B, raising balance sheet risk.
  • Earnings sustainability. FY2025 net income fell 43.5% and EPS declined 38.6%; if Q2 2026 strength does not persist through H2, further downside is likely.
  • Technical deterioration. Stock at $346.58 is below both the 50-day ($358.85) and 200-day ($350.75) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram of -2.96.

What would change my mind

Margin recovery. Q3 2026 gross or operating margin expands sequentially, signaling input cost pressures are easingbullish
Debt reduction. Company announces material debt paydown or leverage ratio improvement in upcoming quartersbullish
Continued margin pressure. H2 2026 margins continue to compress as raw-material and freight costs escalatebearish
Technical breakdown. Stock fails to reclaim the 200-day moving average at $350.75 on a sustained basisbearish

Where this comes from: Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-25 · derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-31. Orin's read on CSL; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Morgan Stanley$900.8M0.0% of fund
State Street$760.6M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$714.3M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$663.2M0.0% of fund
Bank of New York Mellon$405.2M0.1% of fund
Franklin Resources$290.4M0.1% of fund

74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 218 Form 4 filings, net $6.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E18.5×44.5×
EV/EBITDA12.3×
P/S2.57×
P/B8.1×
What the price assumes

2.3%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

26 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$406

$360$425 · +25% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 16 buy or overweight
  • 10 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.5× of 8 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated$13B18.5×12.3×35.3%14.2%41%
ALLEAllegion plc$13B20.1×14.9×44.8%15.4%32%
AVYAvery Dennison Corporation$13B18.9×12.2×29.0%7.6%31%
BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.$6B64.3×11.2×29.2%0.7%2%
ITTITT Inc.$19B41.4×24.8×34.6%8.9%10%
LIILennox International Inc.$13B16.8×13.1×33.1%14.6%65%
MASMasco Corporation$13B15.7×11.0×36.9%11.6%-406%
OCOwens Corning$10B22.5×26.2%-6.8%-17%
TXTTextron Inc.$13B14.5×9.2×16.5%6.1%12%
WSOWatsco, Inc.$13B28.1×18.4×27.9%6.5%17%

The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 23.2×FY25 18.5×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $323.96
52-week range$293 – $433
Analyst targets$360 – $425
At sector P/E (45×)$780

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.