Carlisle Companies Incorporated CSL
Q2 2026 results show genuine operational recovery at Carlisle—revenue grew 8% YoY to $1.57B and normalized EPS rose 12% to $7.03—but FY2025 financials remain a material overhang: net income fell 43.5% to $740.7M, EPS dropped from $27.90 to $17.12, and total debt rose to $2.88B from $1.99B while stockholders' equity declined to $1.80B from $2.46B. The pullback to $346.58 has improved relative value (P/E 20.35x vs 19.47x peer median; EV/EBITDA 13.32x below the 13.71x median), and Dividend King status with a $1.2B buyback commitment supports shareholder returns.
However, the stock trades below both the 50-day ($358.85) and 200-day ($350.75) moving averages with a bearish MACD, and rising raw-material and freight costs continue to pressure margins, leaving the risk/reward balanced.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 35.71% from 37.73% and operating margin to 19.92% from 22.85%; rising input costs cited in recent news could further compress margins.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $2.88B from $1.99B while stockholders' equity declined to $1.80B from $2.46B, raising balance sheet risk.
- Earnings sustainability. FY2025 net income fell 43.5% and EPS declined 38.6%; if Q2 2026 strength does not persist through H2, further downside is likely.
- Technical deterioration. Stock at $346.58 is below both the 50-day ($358.85) and 200-day ($350.75) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram of -2.96.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-25 · derived_metrics FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-31. Orin's read on CSL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CSL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | $900.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $760.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $714.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $663.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $405.2M | 0.1% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $290.4M | 0.1% of fund |
74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 218 Form 4 filings, net $6.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CSL
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.5× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.3× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.57× | — | — |
| P/B | 8.1× | — | — |
2.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$406
$360 – $425 · +25% against today's price
- 16 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | $13B | 18.5× | 12.3× | 35.3% | 14.2% | 41% |
| ALLEAllegion plc | $13B | 20.1× | 14.9× | 44.8% | 15.4% | 32% |
| AVYAvery Dennison Corporation | $13B | 18.9× | 12.2× | 29.0% | 7.6% | 31% |
| BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. | $6B | 64.3× | 11.2× | 29.2% | 0.7% | 2% |
| ITTITT Inc. | $19B | 41.4× | 24.8× | 34.6% | 8.9% | 10% |
| LIILennox International Inc. | $13B | 16.8× | 13.1× | 33.1% | 14.6% | 65% |
| MASMasco Corporation | $13B | 15.7× | 11.0× | 36.9% | 11.6% | -406% |
| OCOwens Corning | $10B | — | 22.5× | 26.2% | -6.8% | -17% |
| TXTTextron Inc. | $13B | 14.5× | 9.2× | 16.5% | 6.1% | 12% |
| WSOWatsco, Inc. | $13B | 28.1× | 18.4× | 27.9% | 6.5% | 17% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 5.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.