Carlisle Companies Incorporated
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Carlisle's H1 2026 results show a credible operational rebound—Q2 2026 revenue grew 8.3% YoY to $1.57B and actual EPS of $7.03 beat estimates by 10.7%—but FY2025 remains a material overhang with net income down 43.5% to $740.7M, gross margin compressing from 37.7% to 35.7%, and total debt rising to $2.88B against declining equity of $1.80B.
The pullback to $329.34 has brought valuation roughly in line with peers (P/E 18.80x vs 18.61x median; EV/EBITDA 12.44x vs 12.70x median), and FCF margin of 19.3% plus Dividend King status provide downside support, but the stock trades below both its 50-day ($348.64) and 200-day ($352.13) moving averages with a still-negative MACD line, suggesting the recovery is not yet priced in. The risk/reward is balanced enough to await confirmation that H1 2026 momentum sustains into H2.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 35.7% from 37.7% and operating margin to 19.9% from 22.9%, with Zacks noting rising raw-material and freight costs as ongoing risks.
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt rose to $2.88B in FY2025 from $1.99B in FY2024 while stockholders' equity declined to $1.80B from $2.46B, increasing financial risk.
- Technical weakness. Stock at $329.34 trades below both the 50-day MA of $348.64 and 200-day MA of $352.13, with MACD line at -6.42 despite a modestly positive histogram.
- Revenue stagnation. FY2025 revenue growth was just 0.33% YoY to $5.02B, and Q1 2026 revenue actually declined 4.0% YoY, making the Q2 recovery fragile.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 29 Jul · FY25 fundamentals · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on CSL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 2.9% over twelve months, from $338.59 on 27 Oct 2025 to $348.57 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $418.74 on 11 Feb 2026; the last close is 16.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.7M, on 31 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CSL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $900.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $760.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $714.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $663.2M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $405.2M | 0.1% |
| Franklin Resources | $290.4M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $278.2M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $214.8M | 0.0% |
| Wells Fargo | $212.2M | 0.0% |
77 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 218 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$28.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CSL
Orin answers questions about CSL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 3 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.5×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.9×above usual | 18.5× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.72×below usual | 3.40× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9×below usual | 13.6× | — |
| P/B | 8.7×above usual | 5.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $384 (from $355 to $412) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$384
$355 – $412 · +10% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 33.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | $14B | 19.9× | 12.9× | 35.3% | 14.2% | 41% |
| CSWCSW Industrials, Inc. | $5B | 40.9× | 20.3× | 42.4% | 10.3% | 11% |
| JCIJohnson Controls International plc | $94B | 33.2× | 25.0× | 37.1% | 11.1% | 21% |
| OCOwens Corning | $10B | lost money | 16.2× | 25.2% | −4.4% | −12% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 18.1× | 11.8× | 41.2% | 8.7% | 21% |
- OC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $382 a share — 10% above the $348.00 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $382 | 10% above $348.00 |
| Levered | $473 | 36% above $348.00 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.