CSX Corporation CSX
CSX's multi-year earnings decline has inflected: Q2 2026 revenue grew 10.1% and EPS rose 22.7% y/y, prompting management to raise full-year guidance to mid-to-high-single-digit revenue growth with over 350 bps of operating margin expansion and 80%+ FCF growth. At $50.16, the stock trades at 29.0x trailing earnings — roughly in line with the peer median of 28.5x and nearly identical to closest rail peer NSC on P/E and EV/EBITDA (16.6x vs 16.7x) — while smart-money sentiment has improved from -0.19 in mid-2024 to +0.10 and insiders are net buyers of $36.3M over 24 months.
The confirmed volume-driven earnings recovery, reasonable relative valuation, and supportive technical posture (price 19% above the 200-day MA) justify accumulation despite the year's 42%+ run.
What could go wrong
- Capex burden persists. FY2025 capex of $2.9B crushed FCF to $1.71B, less than half the $3.49B peak in FY2022; if capex remains elevated, FCF recovery may lag earnings improvement.
- Coal export headwinds. Q2 2026 results noted coal export headwinds alongside volume gains; sustained weakness in coal could offset intermodal strength.
- Valuation already reflated. Stock is up 42%+ in a year and trades at 6.4x sales (64% above peer median); further upside requires earnings growth to outpace multiple expansion already priced in.
- Near-term technical fatigue. MACD histogram is negative (-0.22) with RSI at 51, suggesting momentum has stalled near recent highs after a sharp run.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Zacks news article 2026-07-23 / Seeking Alpha 2026-07-24 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2022 · peer_relative composite · smart_money 13F composite. Orin's read on CSX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All CSX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $3.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
127 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 123 Form 4 filings, net $36.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CSX
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.3× | 19.0× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.8× | 12.0× | — |
| P/S | 6.02× | 4.75× | — |
| P/B | 6.2× | 5.2× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+2.75σ from its own mean).
20.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$51
$32 – $60 · +8% against today's price
- 27 buy or overweight
- 17 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSXCSX Corporation | $87B | 27.3× | 15.8× | 54.9% | 22.2% | 24% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.7× | 15.6× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| FDXFedEx Corporation | $69B | 15.9× | 9.3× | 22.9% | 4.7% | 15% |
| ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $79B | 24.7× | 18.9× | 44.2% | 19.4% | 102% |
| NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation | $71B | 26.9× | 15.9× | 53.7% | 21.0% | 17% |
| PWRQuanta Services, Inc. | $95B | 71.8× | 33.5× | 14.4% | 4.1% | 15% |
| RSGRepublic Services, Inc. | $66B | 30.2× | 14.2× | 39.1% | 12.9% | 18% |
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | $64B | 24.9× | 11.8× | 37.1% | 15.7% | 29% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 2.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $17 | $46.82 · −63% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $13 | $46.82 · −72% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.