CSX Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
CSX's operational inflection is now confirmed across three consecutive quarters: Q3 2026 EPS of $0.57 beat estimates by 7.3%, following Q2 revenue growth of 10.1% YoY to $3.94B and Q1 EPS of $0.43 beating by 10.5%.
Cumulative 2026 EPS through three quarters ($1.54) already matches full-year 2025 EPS, signaling a sharp recovery from the FY2025 trough where operating margin compressed to 32.1% from 40.1% in FY2022. The stock trades at a modest 9.6% PE premium to the peer median of 25.51x, and with smart-money scores improving from -0.03 in Q4 2025 to 0.04 as of Q2 2026 and MACD histogram turning positive at 0.213, the risk/reward favors accumulation into the confirmed earnings recovery.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalling. FY2025 operating margin of 32.1% remains far below the 40.1% peak in FY2022; if Q3 2026 quarterly margins do not show sequential improvement toward historical levels, the recovery thesis weakens.
- Valuation premium with still-depressed profitability. At 27.98x trailing PE versus a peer median of 25.51x, CSX trades at a premium despite FY2025 net income declining 16.7% YoY; any disappointment could trigger a de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold 353,133 shares over the trailing 24 months, including the EVP & COO selling 12,611 shares at $46.78 in September 2026 and the VP & CAO selling 30,000 shares at $53.29 in July 2026.
- Revenue fragility. Full-year 2025 revenue declined 3.1% YoY to $14.09B, the third consecutive annual decline from the $14.85B FY2022 peak; a macro slowdown could reverse the Q2 2026 volume rebound.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: earnings vs estimates, 21 Oct · Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 22 Apr · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on CSX; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 45.2% over twelve months, from $36.00 on 27 Oct 2025 to $52.27 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $53.23 on 24 Jul 2026; the last close is 1.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 29.2M, on 23 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All CSX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $7.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.3B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $3.4B | 0.3% |
| Invesco | $2.8B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.2B | 0.1% |
129 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 125 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$15.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about CSX
Orin answers questions about CSX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 27.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.9×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.1×above usual | 18.9× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 6.48×above usual | 4.75× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.0×above usual | 12.0× | — |
| P/B | 6.7×above usual | 5.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $52.47 (from $32 to $60) — 0% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$52.47
$32 – $60 · +0% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 27.1× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (NSC 28.5×, UNP 23.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSXCSX Corporation | $97B | 27.1× | 16.0× | 36.4% | 24.0% | 26% |
| NSCNorfolk Southern Corporation | $76B | 28.5× | 16.6× | 52.9% | 20.7% | 17% |
| UNPUnion Pacific Corporation | $178B | 23.3× | 15.1× | 44.0% | 28.9% | 38% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 27.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now27.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $17 a share — 67% below the $52.01 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $17 | 67% below $52.01 |
| Levered | $11 | 78% below $52.01 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.